A 100% win rate is nearly a reality in prediction markets

[sompitonov]

Then they punished themselves for believing it was high. A gambler may win and make a huge profit from this, but having a higher winning rate doesn't mean winning is always possible. And perhaps this is the wrong mindset that gamblers have. Yeah, we all have the information, reliable resources, etc., that help us make a good decision on where to place our money. But we must not forget that none of these guarantee winning, as losing is possible as well.

When a wrong mindset develops in our minds, it is difficult for us to seek reality.

I think one of the biggest issues with gambling is how easy it is to trick the human brain. The moment they experience a few consistent wins, their brain starts to make them feel like they have actually cracked the code, and the possibility of luck being a huge contributor to this is completely stricken off the picture. One fact that should be always remembered about gambling is that, no matter how much research you do or how effective you feel your strategy is, gambling will always find a way to take you by surprise. And that’s why it’s crucial to always have a realistic expectation when approaching gambling.

The gravity of the situation lies in the fact that there are quite a few players who want to believe in this. Consequently, any claims that certain strategies are highly effective simply don’t sway me. It might not be the best analogy, but it’s like betting on odds of 1.01 with a bookmaker and calling that a 100% effective strategy. It’s crucial to grasp the underlying reality rather than blindly believing that you’ve finally found a way to start making money from betting.

[Orpichukwu]

It's not only that he made a huge profit chasing low odds, but look at the total volume... this guy is not joking around. And I guess we all know that strategy: with low odds, there's profit only if the stake is high! It's still risky as hell, a few misses mean disaster, but this guy managed to survive two years and make amazing profit.

Well, he founded something that works for him... I guess anyone can try it, but it's a big question will it work for the rest of us.  

Some people’s risk-taking is out of this world; they use amounts that can’t be recovered with 10x winning to stake in one game and take little profit and are okay with it, and they are ready to accept the loss if it happens again and continue. That's not the type of practice someone with small capital should engage in; a bad losing streak will send someone back home.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

If we think gambling is full of risk and we cannot afford to take it to an extent, then we should go to a prediction market and see how almost 80% of players on their market have been full of risk.

You will hardly see someone who is a gambler and also has an interest in prediction markets to that extent, because everything about them does not choose a good part for transparency and accountability in having fun, and this is why you cannot assume a prediction market is for gambling for any reason.

[I_Anime]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

After 2 years of trading on Polymarket, this guy still doesn't know what a loss feels like
His win rate is 99%
That means he loses just 1 out of every 100 trades

--snip--

His strategy is ridiculously simple
He buys almost certain outcomes at $0.95-0.99 and waits for them to settle at $1
While everyone else is chasing 100x, he's quietly printing money on the most obvious outcomes

Source

I’ve not involved myself in the prediction market before , though I do prefer trading and stuff . But I must say prediction market come with a pretty good advantages when come to betting. Because in the prediction market your knowledge (concerning the crypto space ), plays a huge role , so with that one can easily come up with a good strategy that will increase their chances of winning . That’s why I’m always when some folks will belike they have a certain strategy that guarantee them wins when come to sport betting and casinos game , cause i still don’t get how one can come with a strategy like that (when come to casinos game ). But in prediction market I am sure with the right knowledge one can come with a good strategy but not the one that will guarantee them 100% wins .

[M47AK16]

It's not only that he made a huge profit chasing low odds, but look at the total volume... this guy is not joking around. And I guess we all know that strategy: with low odds, there's profit only if the stake is high! It's still risky as hell, a few misses mean disaster, but this guy managed to survive two years and make amazing profit.

Well, he founded something that works for him... I guess anyone can try it, but it's a big question will it work for the rest of us.  

Some people’s risk-taking is out of this world; they use amounts that can’t be recovered with 10x winning to stake in one game and take little profit and are okay with it, and they are ready to accept the loss if it happens again and continue. That's not the type of practice someone with small capital should engage in; a bad losing streak will send someone back home.

You don't even need a losing streak in such cases, a few losses even after some wins in between will still do the same damage as a losing streak in normal betting, because if you are using $1,000 with 1.01x odds, you are getting $10 in profits after each win, but a single loss costs you $1,000 straight, and then if you start doing the same thing again, even if you get 10, 20, 30, or even 50 wins without a single loss, and then you hit another loss, you will still keep going down the line, because you couldn't recover what you lost earlier and lost some more again despite getting so many wins. So such strategies never work, because at the end of the day, it's still gambling, and no matter how much you think you found a perfect pattern, at the end of the day, it's the house that will win.

It's such a simple and easy thing but some people find it hard to accept that gambling can never be a proper or guaranteed way to make money. Even if you think you have found a pattern that allows you to at least make some profits, it won't work forever, and if it does, the profits will probably be peanuts, and you will spending all your time and efforts making cents from each bet and you could probably make more money if you were to spend the same amount of time and put in the same amount of efforts into something more productive and more useful.

[nelson4lov]

You don't even need a losing streak in such cases, a few losses even after some wins in between will still do the same damage as a losing streak in normal betting, because if you are using $1,000 with 1.01x odds, you are getting $10 in profits after each win, but a single loss costs you $1,000 straight, and then if you start doing the same thing again, even if you get 10, 20, 30, or even 50 wins without a single loss, and then you hit another loss, you will still keep going down the line, because you couldn't recover what you lost earlier and lost some more again despite getting so many wins. So such strategies never work, because at the end of the day, it's still gambling, and no matter how much you think you found a perfect pattern, at the end of the day, it's the house that will win.

It's such a simple and easy thing but some people find it hard to accept that gambling can never be a proper or guaranteed way to make money. Even if you think you have found a pattern that allows you to at least make some profits, it won't work forever, and if it does, the profits will probably be peanuts, and you will spending all your time and efforts making cents from each bet and you could probably make more money if you were to spend the same amount of time and put in the same amount of efforts into something more productive and more useful.

Well said, and I was actually about to say the same thing. High win rate strategy works but it is often misleading. People that push this strategy a lot don't talk about how hurtful the losses are. I have tried this strategy but I was invested in 1.15 to 1.20 odds and the profits were good and it piled up fast but when the losses started coming in, it got really bad because the profits took more trades than the losses.

These days, I prefer just going with accumulators because the losses come faster but one win can recover 3, 5, and even 10 losses at once.

At the end of the day, everyone just needs to do what works for them and stick with that because there is no perfect strategy anywhere.

[EluguHcman]

The skills of making decisions is a very creative strategy on betting and prediction market which gives an edge to bettors or traders owned efforts in the strive of making it successful where luck can not be denied that it is most determinate of players stance whether in profits or loses.

You know when it comes to betting and prediction events, It is ideal that they are both gambling due to the risks of uncertainty involved.
So that particularly get me convinced enough that luck has a crucial influence on the outcomes even though strategies may strengthen your confidence.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

This approach is basically picking up pennies from each bet, and to an extent it may seem to be an excellent strategy, not until you hit one crazy loss that wipes off 20-60 previous wins in just one trade. I’ve used similar strategy before, but it gambling, and this only proved to be fun while it lasted, I learned the hard way though. The guy’s 99% streak is indeed impressive but that shouldn’t be mistaken for a perfect approach because it still doesn’t change the low edge rule you know because the moment the edge shrinks, everything might basically fall apart.

Yes, they said that he has sa winning rate of close to 100%, but if we talk about how much he is winning, then it's just a chump change as compare to some who in just one bet could win thousands of dollars despite maybe losing at the start.

So for me, it doesn't make sense at all to just win pennies and then you bet on another one and you lose and then that is the start of your losing streak. Remember that gambling still involved risk, huge risk so expect that you won't always a win. Sooner or later the law of numbers are going to caught up even with this kind of strategies.

[Tungbulu]

Yes, they said that he has sa winning rate of close to 100%, but if we talk about how much he is winning, then it's just a chump change as compare to some who in just one bet could win thousands of dollars despite maybe losing at the start.

So for me, it doesn't make sense at all to just win pennies and then you bet on another one and you lose and then that is the start of your losing streak. Remember that gambling still involved risk, huge risk so expect that you won't always a win. Sooner or later the law of numbers are going to caught up even with this kind of strategies.

Well it all depends on the player’s goal, that’s what would determine whether or not the strategy is worth adopting or better. Because some players are solely playing with the mindset of making more profits, while others play with the aim of avoiding much losses, even if their profits are small, they don’t mind as long as they are able to minimize losses and enjoy the game. So for these type of people, the strategy is actually a safe haven, compared to those who are actually looking forward to winning thousands of dollars, because these ones would lose way more than the other players.

[abaeze]

Yes, they said that he has sa winning rate of close to 100%, but if we talk about how much he is winning, then it's just a chump change as compare to some who in just one bet could win thousands of dollars despite maybe losing at the start.

So for me, it doesn't make sense at all to just win pennies and then you bet on another one and you lose and then that is the start of your losing streak. Remember that gambling still involved risk, huge risk so expect that you won't always a win. Sooner or later the law of numbers are going to caught up even with this kind of strategies.

Well it all depends on the player’s goal, that’s what would determine whether or not the strategy is worth adopting or better. Because some players are solely playing with the mindset of making more profits, while others play with the aim of avoiding much losses, even if their profits are small, they don’t mind as long as they are able to minimize losses and enjoy the game. So for these type of people, the strategy is actually a safe haven, compared to those who are actually looking forward to winning thousands of dollars, because these ones would lose way more than the other players.

Depending on the type of loss and the risk-taking method, there will be less profit or more profit. So there is no guarantee that aiming for less profit means less loss. However, the strategy may be different according to the goals of the players, in which case the profit and loss calculation will also be different. In gambling, the most important thing for me is how much profit is being made per win and how much loss is being made per loss. If you have to lose even with a good strategy, then that strategy is not worth it, and if the strategy is not good but you can win from it, then that is good. Because avoiding losses and thinking that the possibility of losses is low are not the same thing.

[Synchronice]

OP, 100% win rate is not a reality in predictions market. If I place 10 bet on prediction market and I'll win all of them, then I'll also have 100% win rate but that won't be fair. Also, the fact that he has 1 loss still means that it's impossible and as the number of his bets grow, so will the number of loses because that's what mathematically should happen.

This is a valid strategy but do not think it is 100% guarantee and fail proof for everyone

Many times a $0,95 outcome will fail and he will lose everything on that bet. If he wins 5% at every bet, he needs to win 20 bets just to make profit after one loss. In his case it is working because he loses 1 in 100, but what if this changes?

This is like thinking you can bet on 1.05x odds all the time and you will always bank. One day the outcome will be different and you will lose enough to put you many bets behind

If he bets, for example, $1000 and and wins 5% at every bet but every time he reinvests 100% of what he earn, then after 20 bets he will earn $1653 (165.3% profit) and in the end he will have $2653. I wonder whether he reinvests or not because reinvesting gives far more profit but is far riskier.

[Achalugo BTC]

Some people’s risk-taking is out of this world; they use amounts that can’t be recovered with 10x winning to stake in one game and take little profit and are okay with it, and they are ready to accept the loss if it happens again and continue. That's not the type of practice someone with small capital should engage in; a bad losing streak will send someone back home.

In addition, a bad loss can also affect one's mental health. You are right, taking such risks is not for someone with small capital, but whether someone has small capital or not, it is better for one not to engage in such practices if they don't have the mind to withstand the pressure, as people don't have the same ability to withstand it. So, in such cases, they are to risk what they can afford to lose and feel free about it, and not the risk the kind of amount that will either send them back home or affect their peace of mind.

[iv4n]

It's not only that he made a huge profit chasing low odds, but look at the total volume... this guy is not joking around.

Some people’s risk-taking is out of this world; they use amounts that can’t be recovered with 10x winning to stake in one game and take little profit and are okay with it, and they are ready to accept the loss if it happens again and continue. That's not the type of practice someone with small capital should engage in; a bad losing streak will send someone back home.

And he is not stopping:

Source: https://polymarket.com/@sharky6999

Another $6k profit in a bit more than a week, and another +$1 million on his volume... In less than two years, 255.7M total volume! Insane numbers for us "small-time players"!

[noorman0]

OP, 100% win rate is not a reality in predictions market. If I place 10 bet on prediction market and I'll win all of them, then I'll also have 100% win rate but that won't be fair.

Yeah, he isn’t aiming for a 100% win rate; he’s simply content if his strategy generates profit more often than not. From the perspective of a traditional casino, such a high win rate would be a figure that warrants technical investigation.

And he is not stopping:

For a better look at the statistics, see here.

[sompitonov]

And he is not stopping:

Source: https://polymarket.com/@sharky6999

Another $6k profit in a bit more than a week, and another +$1 million on his volume... In less than two years, 255.7M total volume! Insane numbers for us "small-time players"!

Naturally, the prediction market has its whales individuals who employ specific strategies, conduct thorough analysis across various fields including geopolitics, and possess a significant edge. Many people try to track these players, hoping to decipher their strategies and secure a share of the profits for themselves. Yet, no one absolutely no one knows whether these major participants are acting on insider information. It is highly likely that there are still those who profit from such inside knowledge, showing little fear of the law.

[Alex077]

...
Naturally, the prediction market has its whales individuals who employ specific strategies, conduct thorough analysis across various fields including geopolitics, and possess a significant edge. Many people try to track these players, hoping to decipher their strategies and secure a share of the profits for themselves. Yet, no one absolutely no one knows whether these major participants are acting on insider information. It is highly likely that there are still those who profit from such inside knowledge, showing little fear of the law.

I think not all big players in prediction markets have insider information. But I wouldn't advise ordinary users to blindly copy the bets of these "whales." We simply don't know what strategies they're using, what positions they have on other platforms, or whether they're hedging their risks.
As for insider information, of course, we can't completely rule out its use, especially in political prediction markets.

[SuperBitMan]

Some people’s risk-taking is out of this world; they use amounts that can’t be recovered with 10x winning to stake in one game and take little profit and are okay with it, and they are ready to accept the loss if it happens again and continue. That's not the type of practice someone with small capital should engage in; a bad losing streak will send someone back home.

In addition, a bad loss can also affect one's mental health. You are right, taking such risks is not for someone with small capital, but whether someone has small capital or not, it is better for one not to engage in such practices if they don't have the mind to withstand the pressure, as people don't have the same ability to withstand it. So, in such cases, they are to risk what they can afford to lose and feel free about it, and not the risk the kind of amount that will either send them back home or affect their peace of mind.

If you must gamble, make sure that you use the money that you can afford to lose. That is the only time you can be safe as a gambler, if you are using the money that you cannot afford to lose, you are making a very big mistake that you will regret.

Gambling is very risky and I believe everyone knows that already, if you must gamble for fun or for any other reason, make sure that the money you are using is just your discretionary income.

The only time a loss can affect your mental health is when you want to use gambling to become rich or to escape poverty and you loss or you keep losing.

[PX-Z]

Yes, since prediction market result will always be based on the outside of the platform's influence against the player. So manipulating your chance of winning is not possible. Unlike traditional gambling games that is programmed to make you win first and then subtracting your chance of winning in the long run.

[Hatchy]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it's?

I don't really know how accurate this is, but achieving such a high win rate is almost impossible in real life. Even if he consistently bets on low odds, there will still be times when losses are unavoidable. Eventually, his losses could outweigh the profits he makes from winning predictions. For some reason, I find it hard to believe that his win rate is genuine. As someone mentioned, it could simply be a promotion for the platform to attract more players. Whether it's gambling or predictions, the concept is still the same, and the chances of maintaining such a high win rate are extremely low.

[hedgeh0g]

If you must gamble, make sure that you use the money that you can afford to lose. That is the only time you can be safe as a gambler, if you are using the money that you cannot afford to lose, you are making a very big mistake that you will regret.

Gambling is very risky and I believe everyone knows that already, if you must gamble for fun or for any other reason, make sure that the money you are using is just your discretionary income.

The only time a loss can affect your mental health is when you want to use gambling to become rich or to escape poverty and you loss or you keep losing.

These are fundamental rules that must be followed, while experienced players have long been aware of them, beginners need to grasp them and the sooner, the better. As for the idea of ​​achieving a near 100% win rate, I doubt many people would actually believe it, given the long-established golden rule: the higher the risk, the greater the potential profit. Conversely, if the risk is minimal, the profit will be microscopic. It is better to focus on conducting thorough research to identify opportunities where the level of risk and the potential profit factor align with your current objectives, while also considering how your strategy will perform over the long term.