A 100% win rate is nearly a reality in prediction markets

[Nathrixxx]

I don't really know how accurate this is, but achieving such a high win rate is almost impossible in real life.

There is no probability of getting high winning rates with gambling not to talk of playing prediction market which is even more worse in this case, everything turns to just taking a risk on what it does not really what it because you cannot predict more accurate on the market condition than to just risk yourself into it, I want to believe the potential winning amount is what deceived so many that make them to often consider for prediction market.

[Rabata]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is. Even insider trading is limited to specific types of predictions; for instance, someone might consistently win only when it comes to political topics. So, here is the strategy (would you believe it?):

There are differences between casino games, sports and prediction markets. Even though no one can guarantee anything, those who have a good understanding of the prediction market can do well. In some cases, the winning rate may be very high, but still there is no guaranteed win. What needs to be considered is that many people think that their winning rate is high, but have they carefully observed which betting odds they have won by placing bets. There are many bets where the profit after winning is very small and there is no interest in winning in such bets. However, it is certainly true that the one who gains expertise in any particular area will definitely be able to do better than others.

[sotelorene]

There are differences between casino games, sports and prediction markets. Even though no one can guarantee anything, those who have a good understanding of the prediction market can do well. In some cases, the winning rate may be very high, but still there is no guaranteed win. What needs to be considered is that many people think that their winning rate is high, but have they carefully observed which betting odds they have won by placing bets. There are many bets where the profit after winning is very small and there is no interest in winning in such bets. However, it is certainly true that the one who gains expertise in any particular area will definitely be able to do better than others.

If someone is playing 1 odd and using a reasonable amount of money to bet this game even though they have won 6 times and loss 4 times the profit will be very little because of the reward difference. In trading it is always advised to only trade at least 1:2 or 1:3 because anything less than this is not worth trading but some people don't know why. Even if someone is winning at least 3 to 4 odds in gambling if they won 3 times and loss 3 times it doesn't change anything because the loss is nothing. Yea, someone who understands gambling better wil never have same result with someone that doesn't.

[red4slash]

I don't really know how accurate this is, but achieving such a high win rate is almost impossible in real life. Even if he consistently bets on low odds, there will still be times when losses are unavoidable. Eventually, his losses could outweigh the profits he makes from winning predictions. For some reason, I find it hard to believe that his win rate is genuine. As someone mentioned, it could simply be a promotion for the platform to attract more players. Whether it's gambling or predictions, the concept is still the same, and the chances of maintaining such a high win rate are extremely low.

For the prediction market I think this can still be done but it depends on the risk taking of The Gambler himself and if you look at what the OP conveys in the link it can be seen that the focus of this gambler is not to take a big profit in the bets he does but takes a little and is consistent.

This is what is sometimes difficult for most other gamblers to do because sometimes when it is profitable it is very rare that we immediately go out until the maximum profit is felt.
In contrast to the gambler when taking profits of only $1 in every bet he makes but consistent in all bets made then this is of course a gap for him to maintain his winrate.
Not all gamblers will be able to do that even I personally feel that I will be very difficult to follow in his footsteps because in this case keeping emotions and not being too greedy is a little difficult for me to do.

[Churchillvv]

I don't really know how accurate this is, but achieving such a high win rate is almost impossible in real life.

There is no probability of getting high winning rates with gambling not to talk of playing prediction market which is even more worse in this case, everything turns to just taking a risk on what it does not really what it because you cannot predict more accurate on the market condition than to just risk yourself into it, I want to believe the potential winning amount is what deceived so many that make them to often consider for prediction market.

There is a point you are missing, for prediction market it’s more like trading and not just gambling directly, for example will Democrats win the midterm election in the United States, there is a 90 percent chance from the last two most but what the person that op sited his trading pattern does is, wait till the whole place is screaming Democrats then he will place his trade which gives only a 5% profit and not entirely to stake a bet from the scratch with a 100x profit margin, so if he keeps on doing that with some specific topics he is well known with then the chances are high that he will make profit almost all the time he tries.