Institutional adopters or individual adopters

[JoyceBTC]

I recently came across a post on X that was made on the 18th of October 2026 and which by now the price of bitcoin has even moved lower.
The writer asked a question of “who blinks first, the seller or the treasuries”?
In essence, his asking that between the institutions and individuals, whose attitude towards the market will change first since there’s no significant price increase of bitcoin despite how the rate of buyers has surpassed miner supply, if companies will stop buying and start selling or if individuals will stop selling and start buying again?
Personally I will say, the rate at which companies have adopted bitcoin clearly shows that they are looking towards long term because, despite the price fluctuation, they are still buying and they might likely not sell any time soon but individual adopters/investors are even more likely to sell off their bitcoin if the market becomes unfavorable to them.



https://x.com/CryptoBigMartin/status/2111676691374620790

[Free Market Capitalist]

That's nothing new. Companies can hold onto their bitcoins much longer than the typical retail investor who puts all their savings into a single asset (Bitcoin or another) because it’s gone up a lot and they think it’s going to the moon, only to end up selling in a panic when the market crashes. The downside of this is that institutional adoption has brought us terrible returns—the worst on record—and has sacrificed decentralization. Not in its essence, because the protocol remains decentralized, but more and more bitcoins are held by centralized entities, and people are buying bitcoin derivatives through them, such as ETFs or bitcoin treasury products.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

I recently came across a post on X that was made on the 18th of October 2026 and which by now the price of bitcoin has even moved lower.
The writer asked a question of “who blinks first, the seller or the treasuries”?
In essence, his asking that between the institutions and individuals, whose attitude towards the market will change first since there’s no significant price increase of bitcoin despite how the rate of buyers has surpassed miner supply, if companies will stop buying and start selling or if individuals will stop selling and start buying again?

There are buyers and sellers in Bitcoin market, there are traders and holders and with holders if you use on-chain analysis charts from some sites, you will have things like short term holders and long term holders.

Institutional investors are more likely long term holders while individual investors are more possibly retail investors with smaller investment capital and they mostly have shorter investment and holding plans. Hence there is more possibility of individual investors who are short term holders.

Practically you don't have to mind about people who shake their hands, and sell their bitcoins at any time, any price in any market phase. It's just if there are sellers, you can become a buyer, even with a very good investment strategy Dollar Cost Averaging. With DCA practice, if people are panic and sale off their bitcoins, you will have great opportunities to buy bitcoins with much cheaper prices. It's your chance and you have to hope that you will have enough chances and times to do your purchase.

[7juju]

The institutional buyers are just coming in. They haven’t been around for a long time, compared to individual investors who have been holding their bitcoin since inception. This comparison should be made probably when the institutional investors have spent same  number of years as the individual investors, have spent holding bitcoin for the past two decades. So you can see that individuals can hold their bitcoin as long as they want if they don’t have any pressure to sell. I believe same will apply to the institutional investors. If they are not in any pressure to sell, they won’t sell.

[Luzin]

In essence, his asking that between the institutions and individuals, whose attitude towards the market will change first since there’s no significant price increase of bitcoin despite how the rate of buyers has surpassed miner supply, if companies will stop buying and start selling or if individuals will stop selling and start buying again?

It looks like a bomb that might explode if institutions sell bitcoin. They wouldn’t even tell us, and we can only guess and follow the market’s direction. It’s really been tough to predict where they’re headed ever since retail and big institutions got involved a few years ago. But experienced individual traders can always sell when a bullish cycle happens around the ATH area. After that, they’ll hold quite a bit, trying to buy back when the bearish phase comes and looking for the lowest price. Right now, after reaching the ATH, I actually still predict it’s a bearish season and institutions keep accumulating. A small portion might be individuals starting to DCA, but I’m still hoping prices will drop below the current level.

Regarding institutions buying more than miners’ supply, that could happen too; the rest that is bought might be from other investors, not miners, which means the price wouldn’t go up. So when seeing how large institutional supply is, the corporate institutions will become the reference point, so it seems that individuals will observe the inflow and outflow and start to flow like water. Because obviously individuals tend to be just shrimps ready to die if they oppose a shark. CMIIW

[Hatchy]

That's nothing new. Companies can hold onto their bitcoins much longer than the typical retail investor who puts all their savings into a single asset (Bitcoin or another) because it’s gone up a lot and they think it’s going to the moon, only to end up selling in a panic when the market crashes. The downside of this is that institutional adoption has brought us terrible returns—the worst on record—and has sacrificed decentralization. Not in its essence, because the protocol remains decentralized, but more and more bitcoins are held by centralized entities, and people are buying bitcoin derivatives through them, such as ETFs or bitcoin treasury products.

In some ways, I believe individual investors have more courage to hold Bitcoin than institutions who have obligations to meet up with their customers. The only difference is that these companies have the financial resources and structures to maintain their positions longer than most individual investors we have today. Looking at how far Bitcoin has come, we already have many holders who have held their coins for years. Some have no plans to sell, even at the previous ATH. They may seem inactive, but every now and then, we see old whale addresses becoming active and moving their coins. This shows that some holders have simply been holding their assets for years.

Personally, I don't think it really matters if institutions end up holding a large amount of Bitcoin. As long as there is still a supply available, individual investors will continue buying. The idea is simple, while some people choose to hold, others will continue selling. This is part of what keeps the market cycle going.

[dzungmobile]

In some ways, I believe individual investors have more courage to hold Bitcoin than institutions who have obligations to meet up with their customers. The only difference is that these companies have the financial resources and structures to maintain their positions longer than most individual investors we have today.

Institutional investors have bigger capital but they have more experience in managing funds including big investment capitals. With individual investors, they can do their first investment and with Bitcoin's volatility, their first investment practice can become very stressful and challenging.

Institutional investors have big advantage from knowledge to experience, and better risk and capital management but individual investors can do the same if they learn and prepare well enough before starting their investment. They also have big advantage by more easily enter and exit the market with smaller investment capital.

Institutional investors with bigger capital will need longer time for entries and exits, they need more time to buy or to sell bitcoins and complete their positions.

[TedMosby]

[...] if companies will stop buying and start selling or if individuals will stop selling and start buying again?
[...]

Wait, if institutions stop buying and start selling, who do they sell to? Don't they sell to the market where retail investors are? I mean, this is a market, an economy where supply and demand work. Both parties are doing their parts.

[...]
Personally I will say, the rate at which companies have adopted bitcoin clearly shows that they are looking towards long term because, despite the price fluctuation, they are still buying and they might likely not sell any time soon but individual adopters/investors are even more likely to sell off their bitcoin if the market becomes unfavorable to them.
[...]

I somewhat agree with you. Bitcoin is arguably a new product if you compare it to other tech and financial products. But somehow, the market seems  already (or almost?) mature. We are no longer in the same era when volatility was super extreme due to a lack of liquidity. Now big institutions have already jumped in, Bitcoin is becoming more and more mainstream every day, and retail investors seem to be swapping roles with institutions. Back then, retail investors made institutions FOMO. Now institutions make retail investors FOMO. Retail investors are the followers now. They tend to believe that the smart money is in the hands of institutions because they believe institutions already have long term plans about this, that, and everything else. The market is driven by institutions.

[Merit.s]

Institutions are rich and can buy bitcoin as use it as part of their company reserve funds which means they wouldn't sell but hodli but most retail investors are after profits and sell when they feel they are ok with the profit in their portfolio.

Some sell out of panic because they bought out of FOMO. If you look at this circle bear market, the price didn't dip as excepted because institutions are now part of bitcoin and they wouldn't just panic and sell because of some news they heard. Retail investors are the ones selling more.

[Lontor]

Companies who buys today can also dump tomorrow, it's not a new thing at all and all these companies consist of humans who are also buying and selling, when things looks very uncertainty many of them will also get shaken out.

My advice is don't let companies buying Bitcoin get you fooled, stay away from them and focus on your own accumulation, yes many adopters end up buying but we all have different goals.

[Jewan420]

Just as there are long-term holders in the market, there are also short-term holders. Most institutions buy Bitcoin for long-term holding, there is no distinction between them. But there are multiple distinctions among individual investors. There are long-term holders, short-term holders and traders. The goal of long-term holders and institutions is the same, to hold for a long time and not pay attention to market volatility.

But there are some characteristics between short-term holders and traders. For short-term holders, profit is the main goal, no matter what the future of Bitcoin is, they sell it when they get a significant profit and buy it again at a low price, and thus their cycle continues. Traders play with market movements, their main job is to analyze market movements and make money by applying regular movements.

[Upgrade00]

Some sell out of panic because they bought out of FOMO. If you look at this circle bear market, the price didn't dip as excepted because institutions are now part of bitcoin and they wouldn't just panic and sell because of some news they heard. Retail investors are the ones selling more.

And some sell just cause they have real life things to do, relocate, pay tuition, go on a vacation. Companies do not have these sort of problems and they have a larger bankroll to play with, supported by multiple individuals.
We only have a small percentage of institutional money in bitcoin but it's already more than retail stockpile in circulation.

[d5000]

I think the answer depends highly on the price movement previous to the market situation we're analyzing (in this case, a slightly bearish movement after 1-2 bullish months).

Institutional investors will normally have an exit strategy or "Plan B" they execute if the market turns against them. They would have some criteria (e.g. several lower highs and lows in a row, a trading channel, or even traditional stop-loss) to determine that the market is too bearish to hold for example.

I expect thus there could be points in a bear market where several institutional investors sell at the same time, because they applied similar criteria. It's possible that this happened earlier in 2026 when the support on ~80k broke and we headed towards the low of 57xxx.

Retail traders are perhaps more emotional, and sell if they have a more subjective feeling about the market being bearish.

Of course, both often use the same technical analysis, and thus it's also possible retailers and institutionals sell both at once because they used the same criteria for their "stop loss" strategy. However, I think retailers may sell more irregularly, but also more often, due to the subjective feeling of panic. While institutionals would tend to sell at the same time, but more seldom, and some of them may not sell at all and even buy.

[GreatArkansas]

I recently came across a post on X that was made on the 18th of October 2026 and which by now the price of bitcoin has even moved lower.
The writer asked a question of “who blinks first, the seller or the treasuries”?
In essence, his asking that between the institutions and individuals, whose attitude towards the market will change first since there’s no significant price increase of bitcoin despite how the rate of buyers has surpassed miner supply, if companies will stop buying and start selling or if individuals will stop selling and start buying again?
Personally I will say, the rate at which companies have adopted bitcoin clearly shows that they are looking towards long term because, despite the price fluctuation, they are still buying and they might likely not sell any time soon but individual adopters/investors are even more likely to sell off their bitcoin if the market becomes unfavorable to them.

https://talkimg.com/images/2026/10/29/a2phu1.jpeg

https://x.com/CryptoBigMartin/status/2111676691374620790

To be honest, these are pure speculations, especially if you are talking about prices. If anyone especially retails are selling just for panic (which is very normal), that's just more Bitcoin for DCA. Institutions can dump too, but my plan stays the same.

[lionheart78]

[...] if companies will stop buying and start selling or if individuals will stop selling and start buying again?
[...]

Wait, if institutions stop buying and start selling, who do they sell to? Don't they sell to the market where retail investors are? I mean, this is a market, an economy where supply and demand work. Both parties are doing their parts.

I think when institutions stop buying, they either sell it through OTC or centralized exchanges and other portals to spread their sales so that they won't crush the market resulting in lower sale value for them.

[...]
Personally I will say, the rate at which companies have adopted bitcoin clearly shows that they are looking towards long term because, despite the price fluctuation, they are still buying and they might likely not sell any time soon but individual adopters/investors are even more likely to sell off their bitcoin if the market becomes unfavorable to them.
[...]

I somewhat agree with you. Bitcoin is arguably a new product if you compare it to other tech and financial products. But somehow, the market seems  already (or almost?) mature. We are no longer in the same era when volatility was super extreme due to a lack of liquidity. Now big institutions have already jumped in, Bitcoin is becoming more and more mainstream every day, and retail investors seem to be swapping roles with institutions. Back then, retail investors made institutions FOMO. Now institutions make retail investors FOMO. Retail investors are the followers now. They tend to believe that the smart money is in the hands of institutions because they believe institutions already have long term plans about this, that, and everything else. The market is driven by institutions.

Bitcoin volatility is still extreme even though it does not lack liquidity.  You see that Bitcoin price swings from time to time and can even go down to greater than 50% of its ATH, then goes back recording ATH.  We also witness how bitcoin uptrend to almost $90k this past month and after that trend, now its price goes down to sub $80k after just a few days ago.

[Ambatman]

Well retail investors is just them
So making decision about selling is faster unlike institutions that will have to go through processes.
This doesn't negate the fact that we have seen quite some institutions selling
Or transitioning in to other ventures like AI.

The writer asked a question of “who blinks first, the seller or the treasuries”?

It depends
Various institutions have their buying price, target and the risk they can accomodate
Some may sell before individuals, some may after and some may continue holding.

[Cookdata]

Companies who buys today can also dump tomorrow, it's not a new thing at all and all these companies consist of humans who are also buying and selling, when things looks very uncertainty many of them will also get shaken out.

My advice is don't let companies buying Bitcoin get you fooled, stay away from them and focus on your own accumulation, yes many adopters end up buying but we all have different goals.

When companies sell their Bitcoin, it's not what cause the dump, it's the fear created by people and the sentiment around people that makes the market to dump. If you have pay attention to what's happening around Saylor, do you noticed that he used to do a weekly buy of Bitcoin, they are done through OTC and not on the centralized exchanges. Anytime they do this buy, the market doesn't react because they don't know until he made an announcement that the company has bought a size of Bitcoin and that's when Bitcoin pump, you see that it's reaction that makes the market to move.

Similarly, when they noticed that the company sent out 32 Btc sometimes ago, everyone panic and that was how FUD grew stronger, the company didn't care about the sentiment, sold what they wanted to defend strc. I noticed that after sometime when he was selling some part of Btc,  people didn't care about it, the price was stable, they weren't reacting to the news. This is why I said companies Bitcoin sell doesn't cause price to dump, it's how we react to the news and fear that affect the price.

[aoluain]

Thinking about this creates more questions than answers in my head.

First of all I was thinking that individual adopters generally lack the conviction to HODL through
tough market times but then I would like to hope that all the weak hands have gone from the
market at this stage?

Then I was thinking institutional investors have more experience of tough market conditions and
are more likely to HODL at those times, but then I am thinking that when times get tough which
asset to they value least, Bitcoin perhaps?

[yudi09]

Every major investor naturally has their own strategy for navigating various market conditions. If the market continues to decline after they have entered a position, they can take advantage of the downturn to increase their existing Bitcoin holdings—since their goal is not to sell at an inopportune time. Their target horizon might even span two four-year market cycles.
Thinking about selling is not a habit they cultivate, and I have adopted this same approach for my own "hold" strategy.

[tabas]

Individuals are quick to panic sell because these institutions won't just sell because the market doesn't move a lot. They have planned long before they invest and that's a firm standing they have because they have studied and researched very well what they need to know about Bitcoin. But they can also change their minds depending on the board decisions if they all agree that they'll have to sell and panic. Being in the money business for a long time won't make them do things that will change in a quick glance what they have studied carefully.