Actually, we can still follow past cycles, but we really can’t assume that growth will always be the same. We can see that every time we enter a bullish market, the percentage increase is always decreasing. It might be true that Bitcoin’s market volatility could decrease in the future. That doesn’t mean it will disappear, but we’ll see a market that doesn’t move as fast as before.
At the beginning of 2029, I don’t expect a number exceeding $200k. But hopefully, by mid to late year, we can see it happen as a celebration of a new achievement.
Historical data and past cycles are still useful reference points for analysing Bitcoin's market structure and calling BTC's direction. That said, we shouldn't assume past cycles repeat with same pattern, same pace of growth. Markets keep changing and Bitcoin is no exception.
As for the $200k target in the next bull run, like I said, I hope we get there. But as you admitted yourself, returns keep shrinking each cycle. So I'd treat $200k as a target we can reasonably hope for, not something we should take for granted.