Binance's Biggest Hack Yet: Why Did Bitcoin Fall Only 3–5%? Is ETF responsible?

[STT]

Reminds me of China banning Bitcoin, it was the worlds most populous country at the time so it should have mattered alot. BTC fell then regained so much it made a new ATH regardless of the bad news.
  
  The important part is a separation of the news and perception of a negative from the actual effect in play immediately and over time.   Near term there is the stolen BTC selling into the order books of various markets, excess supply.  Long term it was a mistake by the private company not BTC itself so its not a flaw exactly.

[suzanne5223]

As per my understanding, whenever there is an exchange hack, the Bitcoin price does go down.

Not always. It usually depends on the current trend and the level of FUD.
In a bear market with a massive FUD attack the price will go down.
Other times, specially during bull runs, such attacks would be completely ingored.

Correct, this situation depends on level of FUD.

But in case of Binance they actually manage to settle down the emotion of their traders, as well as those people following the case. That SAFU words is truly a big thing, because many people hold unto that promises that nothing happen and they can compensate their user if there's someone got affected by that hack.

That's why this latest hacking issue, didn't give much deeper bad effect on Bitcoin.

If we look at the bigger picture (which is the current market correction season, and the price action of BTC on the daily chart which shows the market needs to test at least the $75K price before the bullish trend), the limited drop after the Binance hack makes sense, and years ago a major exchange hack of this size would have triggered heavier panic selling.

[fullfitlarry]

As per my understanding, whenever there is an exchange hack, the Bitcoin price does go down.

Not always. It usually depends on the current trend and the level of FUD.
In a bear market with a massive FUD attack the price will go down.
Other times, specially during bull runs, such attacks would be completely ingored.

Correct, this situation depends on level of FUD.

But in case of Binance they actually manage to settle down the emotion of their traders, as well as those people following the case. That SAFU words is truly a big thing, because many people hold unto that promises that nothing happen and they can compensate their user if there's someone got affected by that hack.

That's why this latest hacking issue, didn't give much deeper bad effect on Bitcoin.

If we look at the bigger picture (which is the current market correction season, and the price action of BTC on the daily chart which shows the market needs to test at least the $75K price before the bullish trend), the limited drop after the Binance hack makes sense, and years ago a major exchange hack of this size would have triggered heavier panic selling.

And we can say that maybe the market has matured as well, although there is a price declined, it's not that huge if we think about it. And if we go back years, this negative news could be big and will trigger panic and investors pushing it and selling their Bitcoin.

But now it seems that the bleeding has stopped at $77,500 right now. We didn't test $75k from what I see. So investors saw this as a good opportunity to buy instead of selling their hard earn Bitcoin. So I commend that market for thinking smart this time.

[TastyChillySauce00]

I think there maybe other reasons why there is no major decline in price of bitcoin  despite the fact that binance was hacked. This may not necessarily because of ETF supporting the price. As we all know,  bitcoin is gaining widespread adoption  and different investors have their reasons why they are holding bitcoin. Not all investors will sell their bitcoin because binance was hacked and not bitcoin itself. It is more of  how they see the situation that will cause then to panic. Therefore, OP thinking that it is only ETF that is supporting the price is definitely wrong.

Historically bitcoin dumped whenever there is hack, on the early days, the Mt. Gox hack caused bitcoin to dump dramatically, Bitfinex hack is the same. With this change of market behaviour, I wouldn't easily rule out the possibility that ETF is indeed bringing some change to the market.

We basically got less paper hands and more institutional inflow that equates to more diamond hand is probably the reason here. We've had multiple black swan and it's probably the first time I'm seeing a multi billion hack did nothing of significance to bitcoin and only slight price volatility.

[philipma1957]

As per my understanding, whenever there is an exchange hack, the Bitcoin price does go down. This time, one of the biggest crypto exchanges got hacked and they are saying that NK hackers are responsible. The hack is not in the millions but in billions of USD. Some countries need to survive with the amount that was hacked, which is estimated at more than $6 billion.
My Bitcoin ETF analysis of mine came up with these questions

• Did ETF inflow stop the panic, as the market cap still looks strong, as does the price?
• Or are Bitcoin holders now normalized to such hacks?
• Or do you think other factors are the reason why the Bitcoin price is still holding on?

My understanding
Since I have been tracking ETF inflows for quite some time now because of my Bitcoin prediction tool, I see a good inflow for the last four days. I am talking in millions of USD.
My question to everyone here
I personally feel that the Bitcoin ETF has become a main contributor controlling the price of Bitcoin. Do you agree with my conclusion, or do you have a different opinion?

EDIT: This is the reason why I love Bitcoin❤️

cause you are far far far too fast to talk about how little it fell.

The full impact will be much more know by weds the 4th of November.

But no you put this up so quickly hoping that what you say will be true in a weeks time.

But hey that is what free speech is all about.

Let us hope you are correct.

[Pandu Geddon]

But now it seems that the bleeding has stopped at $77,500 right now. We didn't test $75k from what I see. So investors saw this as a good opportunity to buy instead of selling their hard earn Bitcoin. So I commend that market for thinking smart this time.

Indeed, we might see this as a buying opportunity, but some investors are concerned about a further decline due to a hack of an exchange like Binance. Unfortunately, this is a bad way to finish October. If there is another fall in next one or two weeks there might be many losses on the traders’ side.

[DanWalker]

I think there maybe other reasons why there is no major decline in price of bitcoin  despite the fact that binance was hacked. This may not necessarily because of ETF supporting the price. As we all know,  bitcoin is gaining widespread adoption  and different investors have their reasons why they are holding bitcoin. Not all investors will sell their bitcoin because binance was hacked and not bitcoin itself. It is more of  how they see the situation that will cause then to panic. Therefore, OP thinking that it is only ETF that is supporting the price is definitely wrong.

Historically bitcoin dumped whenever there is hack, on the early days, the Mt. Gox hack caused bitcoin to dump dramatically, Bitfinex hack is the same. With this change of market behaviour, I wouldn't easily rule out the possibility that ETF is indeed bringing some change to the market.

We basically got less paper hands and more institutional inflow that equates to more diamond hand is probably the reason here. We've had multiple black swan and it's probably the first time I'm seeing a multi billion hack did nothing of significance to bitcoin and only slight price volatility.

Yeah , market's clearly matured since institutional money started flowing in, so can't deny the ETFs played a part in how it reacts to shocks like this Binance hack.
That said, ETFs definitely aren't the only reason.

I dunno exactly which factors play the biggest role, but what I'm seeing is that investor sentiment is a different ballgame now. Instead of panicking, dumping their BTC and worrying that Binance might collapse , most seem to believe the issue will be dealt with and the exchange will get back to normal soon.

If this had happened a few  years back , we'd probably have seen tons of speculation about Binance collapsing. This time , I've barely seen anyone even talk about that possibility in the days after .

[pooya87]

I don't know what new thing is going to present itself in the market tomorrow but we know with certainty that if the market were to react to this hack news, it would have done it already. And this is just a hunch based on some of the comments I've been reading on social media as well as this forum... but if anybody was trying to short bitcoin they should know that in a sideways market it is a terrible bet with terrible odds. During a sideways trend you should try to figure out the upper and lower bounds and try to make profit by playing in that range not outside of it.

[Pikiboy]

You won't just expect the market to keep dumping so easily because a hacked was Carried out on exchange, beside do you know if all assets that was stolen are in Bitcoin?
Not sure, as that report came it was a total of $6.3b if I am not mistakenly and not all funds where moved. Binance exchange is trying everything possible to refund those who are affected, and those with newly listed token would have to receive back their token back, and also a Snapchat has been taken which they would be airdrop according to their funds lost on the exchange and this is mostly for those that are affected. The reason why market do not dump as you think is a result of no heavy dump from those asset stolen from Binance around $3B was also freezed.

[CryptoBuds]

cause you are far far far too fast to talk about how little it fell.

The full impact will be much more know by weds the 4th of November.

But no you put this up so quickly hoping that what you say will be true in a weeks time.

But hey that is what free speech is all about.

Let us hope you are correct.

Mind if I ask why we have to wait until Weds the 4th of November?

From the latest news, Binance has already covered 90-95% of the stolen funds, and withdrawals have started reopening today as well. So I reckon most of the fear and negative impact from the incident has been priced in by now.

Ah, right, I just remembered the US midterm elections are on November 3. If we see any negative price action after that, it could well be driven by political developments rather than the Binance incident.

[Sobz]

I don't know what new thing is going to present itself in the market tomorrow but we know with certainty that if the market were to react to this hack news, it would have done it already. And this is just a hunch based on some of the comments I've been reading on social media as well as this forum... but if anybody was trying to short bitcoin they should know that in a sideways market it is a terrible bet with terrible odds. During a sideways trend you should try to figure out the upper and lower bounds and try to make profit by playing in that range not outside of it.

Binance have already started operation on withdrawal and the price of the market is increasing,  this means tge price of Bitcoin is heading to where it was before the hacked news. When news like this occurs drop of price are always kinds of rapid drops and since yesterday there wasn't no serious fall of bitcoin. I believe the reason why the drop wasn't that serious was because binance has already assured customers no lose of their money and the stollen fund from the hacked would be recovered. The experience was a bad news and there was also a good news from binance too.

[Die_empty]

I don't know what new thing is going to present itself in the market tomorrow but we know with certainty that if the market were to react to this hack news, it would have done it already. And this is just a hunch based on some of the comments I've been reading on social media as well as this forum... but if anybody was trying to short bitcoin they should know that in a sideways market it is a terrible bet with terrible odds. During a sideways trend you should try to figure out the upper and lower bounds and try to make profit by playing in that range not outside of it.

Since  Bitcoin ETFs cannot be traded or executed on Saturdays and Sundays, they assume that there might be a massive outflow on Monday. This means they are seeing the ETF as a major controller or influencer of Bitcoin price. For me, I don't expect any massive price decline tomorrow. Market sentiment doesn't have respect for time or days. From the current developments after these hacks, it is becoming clear that the Bitcoin market is becoming mature and immune to some past sentiments. We are now moving into an era where massive hacks might not affect the market.

[philipma1957]

I don't know what new thing is going to present itself in the market tomorrow but we know with certainty that if the market were to react to this hack news, it would have done it already. And this is just a hunch based on some of the comments I've been reading on social media as well as this forum... but if anybody was trying to short bitcoin they should know that in a sideways market it is a terrible bet with terrible odds. During a sideways trend you should try to figure out the upper and lower bounds and try to make profit by playing in that range not outside of it.

I will quote this and say you are very very very very guilty of wishful thinking.

I will also say the shit is about to hit the fan and hold on to your hats.


lets see if I am a fool  we will know by Nov 11 or sooner.

I think 55k is certainly possible by then.

[Rengga Jati]

Indeed, we might see this as a buying opportunity, but some investors are concerned about a further decline due to a hack of an exchange like Binance. Unfortunately, this is a bad way to finish October. If there is another fall in next one or two weeks there might be many losses on the traders’ side.

It is clear opportunity for accumulation. Even if it is a bad end of October, it is actually not so surprising because we are quite familiar with significant decline whenever we have exchange hacks. Experienced traders must have anticipated this bad situation by setting cut-loss or stop-loss. So, there will be no huge losses from the traders.

I will also say the shit is about to hit the fan and hold on to your hats.

Are you serious? Will we have worse situation? I only guess this is just temporary crash.

lets see if I am a fool  we will know by Nov 11 or sooner.
I think 55k is certainly possible by then.

How do you know Nov 11 we may experience huge decline to $55k? I don't know it is possible happening. But it will be quite surprising if Bitcoin really drops to $55k in the next few days or weeks.

[m2017]

Why should Bitcoin dump? Was it Bitcoin that was hack or the Binance exchange.

I, too, fail to see any direct connection between these events. Yet, the fact remains: bitcoin's price reacted immediately, and negatively. After all, this is a crypto market (like any other) driven by "rumors and events". But here’s an interesting question: what was the motivation for those who sold? Were they afraid that the hackers would start dumping the stolen assets, causing the market to crash?

Traders are getting smarter, why sell Bitcoin because Binance was hacked, it doesn't make any sense.

This is a reason to sell only bnb.

The 5% wasn't necessarily but market reaction will do what it's known for.

And yet, fall could have been even deeper. So, the market got off lightly (with just a minor scare ).

From the calculation, the total amount of stolen funds is $6.3b and $3b was frozen, what's left with the hacker is $3b and they promised to buy back the stolen Bitcoin. Not only that, they promised to buy back the stolen coins, that's a relief to maintain the market and the market will recover soon.

Besides, there weren't just bitcoins; there were other cryptocurrencies as well, which should have also exerted "pressure", and not just on bitcoin.

It will sound dumb for when an exchange is announced to be hacked people panic to even sell their coins.

Don't expect rational actions from people gripped by "fear and panic".

Not defending the centralized exchange mafias, but those guys are crooks to defend the price in many ways,

Being a legal crooks is not a crime.

CZ alone is worth $100B, what was taken is a fraction to the company.

Surely you don’t think that CZ should have been expected to (or would have) covered the losses resulting from the hack (had that become necessary)? Why on earth should a private individual be responsible for solving a company’s problems?


It seems to me that the events surrounding the Binance hack were used (via the media) to once again manipulate this market.

[abaeze]

While the Binance hack and the Bitcoin network hack are separate issues but the Binance hack could have an impact on the market price of Bitcoin because the crypto market isn't only dependent on technology but also on people's beliefs, emotions, fears and decisions. From that perspective, the flows of funds from ETFs can affect the demand and price of Bitcoin but the price of Bitcoin depends on many other things, such as: demands in the spot market, futures market, adaptation, etc.The fact that Binance was hacked doesn't mean Bitcoin's security has been compromised. However, it's not unreasonable to acknowledge that the negative market impact could cause Bitcoin's price to drop by 5%–10%.

[pooya87]

Well, I am what the kids call a "permabull"... So...

lets see if I am a fool  we will know by Nov 11 or sooner.
I think 55k is certainly possible by then.

By Nov 11, huh? I am assuming you are talking about the US CPI announcement that is coming out on Nov 10.

Perhaps another drop could be on the horizon, but to $55k?
That's a 30% crash and $55k price has not been seen since September 2024 (June crash was to $59k). We also have a couple of very strong supports until that level.

I think a panic sell caused by "fear of higher interest rates" should take the price to $70k at most which is a 10% drop not a 30% crash.

[philipma1957]

Indeed, we might see this as a buying opportunity, but some investors are concerned about a further decline due to a hack of an exchange like Binance. Unfortunately, this is a bad way to finish October. If there is another fall in next one or two weeks there might be many losses on the traders’ side.

It is clear opportunity for accumulation. Even if it is a bad end of October, it is actually not so surprising because we are quite familiar with significant decline whenever we have exchange hacks. Experienced traders must have anticipated this bad situation by setting cut-loss or stop-loss. So, there will be no huge losses from the traders.

I will also say the shit is about to hit the fan and hold on to your hats.

Are you serious? Will we have worse situation? I only guess this is just temporary crash.

lets see if I am a fool  we will know by Nov 11 or sooner.
I think 55k is certainly possible by then.

How do you know Nov 11 we may experience huge decline to $55k? I don't know it is possible happening. But it will be quite surprising if Bitcoin really drops to $55k in the next few days or weeks.

Lets look closer at the world $$ setup.

BTC Lets compare it to Jan 2026 a range of 84.1k to 96.9k and it tanked to 78.6k Feb 1 2026

Gold let us compare it to Jan 2026 a range of 4.3k to 5.6k and it tanked to 4.6k In February 2026

Silver let us compare it to Jan 2026 a range of 70 to 121 and it tanked to  73 in February 2026

Platinum let us compare it to Jan 2026 a range of 2137 to 2924 and it tanked to 2000 in February 2026


So all of them had a linked drop in February 2026

all are stores of value


and today they are

BTC 78k
Gold       3800
Silver         49
Platinum 1433


so they all suck worse

lets check out where the wealth is going

oil       

58 to   64 Jan 2026
61 to   67 Feb 2026
90 to 104 Oct 2026

now this is very simple the entire world is awaiting the Nov 3 USA elections

Maga/Trump gets crushed in the elections

Trump voids the elections and begins the new Putin+Xe man

he continues driving old prices to the moon and by Nov 11 he smashes all resistance to his take over.

He then focuses on Iran and oil is about 150 a barrel

Btc is bitch smacked to 55k or less.

What are the odds on that?

I have no idea but it has happened to many other countries many other times.

[leonair]

It was in the past that when an Exchange is hacked, it will affect the price of bitcoin because investors don't understand that they don't need to panic and sell because bitcoin wasn't affect. Currently, most investors are aware of this which is why the price didn't dip above 3%. Secondly, institutions and big companies are now involved in bitcoin, if retail investors panic and sell these institutions and big companies will just turn their deaf ears to the market or they will buy more to pump the price.

People trust Binance's security system and the power of their crypto world, everyone knows that their funds are safe and that even if withdrawals are stopped due to temporary difficulties, it will return to normal. Everyone believes in these things, which is why such a big incident has happened and such a big fund has been hacked, yet there has been no panic in the market. The amount of funds that have been hacked does not have the same amount of fund total capital as the maximum platform in the market. However, Binance can recover these losses very quickly by making profits. And that is why there is basically no major effect on the market. If Binance had not been able to manage these losses in any way, then it would have created a new record of market crash in crypto history because people trust Binance the most and no one would have trusted any centralized exchange since then.