Betting on A Strong Team Can Be Very Risky

[abaeze]

I like football. I don't use to bet on cricket regularly. However, in reality, it is possible to win a large sum of money if a weaker team wins. However, the real point in all betting is not to get an unexpected win, but to make a decision based on the calculation of risk and potential profit over a long period of time. Because odds makers make very calculated decisions when a smaller or less strong team is playing against a bigger team. Because they know that if the bigger team ever lose, no matter how much they give them, the house edge always works against the gambler.

[Yorubek]

This incident is not only in the case of cricket, it also happens in the game of football, many times a strong team loses to a weak team, naturally it becomes difficult to accept such a defeat at times but there is nothing to be done because the truth is bitter but it is the truth and it will never change and we have to accept it. I am a football fan as you said in the game of football I have seen some teams lose which I never imagined they would lose to a weak team, naturally I never thought that. No matter how strong the team is, there is no guarantee of winning in gambling, this is the reality.

[ralle14]

Have you ever bet on a team which was very weak and you have won 10 times more than expected in any kind of sports?

Nope, I don't have the guts to back a team that low and my best is only around 4x-5x since I used to bet on MMA/UFC matches and back the underdogs.

That's also why others don't recommend a huge favorite because the bookies can overestimate some of them. If you step on the wrong favorites, they're more frustrating than losing with an underdog because you're also encouraged to increase your units or place a max bet.

[Gost ms]

Although I don't understand cricket very well, I understand what you are saying. Football is unpredictable, just like cricket is unpredictable. So anything can happen on the field, even if a team is very strong, they sometimes lose to a team that is very unexpected. As we saw last season with Real Madrid. Real Madrid's performance was very bad and they lost to many small teams at home. It is never possible to predict what will happen on the field, but most of the time the big teams have a much higher chance of winning.

Yes, I have lost betting on big teams, but I have never made a big profit on small teams. Because I bet on the right analysis before placing each bet and which team has a much higher chance of winning, that's why I never bet on small teams.

[Smartprofit]

In my opinion, it's not entirely true to say that betting on a strong sports team is always risky... But isn't betting on a weak sports team not risky? If that were the case, we'd have a foolproof betting strategy: we'd always bet on the weak team and win in the long run. But it doesn't work that way! 🙋

For example, today I bet on Chelsea, and they won. The odds were 1.99. The bookmakers rated Manchester United's chances of winning lower. Does this mean I should have bet on Manchester United? Of course not!

In fact, betting on a strong sports team is always less risky... It's just that betting on a weaker team is potentially more profitable (since the odds are higher). However, for us to make that profit, the weak team must win. And that rarely happens... 💁

[Swordsoffreedom]

It was a match no body imagined that Zimbabwe will win from the four time world champions. Unlike today's IPL in which most of the matches are fixed. Have you ever bet on a team which was very weak and you have won 10 times more than expected in any kind of sports?

Amidst current commercial hodgepodge, predictable strategies and whisper of match fixing, modern T20 leagues often feel rather contrived. Which doesn't even come close to those raw and thrilling upset from those days in international cricket.

Anyway, you asked whether I've ever placed a bet on a heavy underdog and secured a return of 10 times the stake or more?
Exactly, many times! Actual fun of the game begins when you capitalize on market overreaction or public hype by calculating correct expected value and placing proper value bet. There's unique feeling that comes with hitting those huge outlier odds.

[Homemade-IQ]

Anything about gambling is all about risk, so their is no easy bet as most people think, that is why it is advice that gamblers should only gamble with what they can afford to lose, so that if their expectations did not plays out as they expect, it will in no way affect them financially.

Surprise result is a regular thing that happens in sport, so if it happens in a cricket game between Zimbabwe vs Australia, then you should not be too surprised by it, because it is the main reason winning in gambling has became very difficult because bigger teams don't always win, as it uses to be in the past.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

It was a match no body imagined that Zimbabwe will win from the four time world champions. Unlike today's IPL in which most of the matches are fixed. Have you ever bet on a team which was very weak and you have won 10 times more than expected in any kind of sports?

Depending or relying on analysis and past performance to choose which team in sports that has the best chance of winning is a very common practice, But the fact so far has shown us that a team winning a match doesn't always depend or rely on past performance of the team.
Sometimes, a team can beat their opponent simply out of luck, while other times, winning is the result of hard work and adequate preparations, this is something we as bettors ought to always have in our minds while placing bets, this will help us deal with over confidence in a team.

And speaking of whether I have ever bet on a supposedly weak team that ended up winning the match? the answer is yes, and a lot times actually, this is why I said what I said above.

[leonair]

I am familiar with cricket and I have played it for years. That's why I always pick up cricket. And whoever is fond of cricket will understand my question much better. Although the question is very general and hope all of you will understand. A match against Australia and Zimbabwe was played about a decade ago. And the over-confidence of betting people on Australia sinked them. Like 1 dollar for the one who bet on Australia win and 100 dollars if zimbabwe win. Unlucky was the day for those when Taylor of Zimbabwe made 60 runs and played a vital role in Zimbabwe win. It was just good luck for the people who bet on Zimbabwe win, because they already knew the strength of Australian team at that time.

In gambling, nothing can be guaranteed, but in sportsbooks, you can get some support if you have a good idea about the team. Because in football or cricket matches, the strong teams are seen winning the maximum matches, but their odds are very small, due to which you can bet on those strong teams and win most of your bets, but in this case you will not be able to make a big profit and if you suddenly lose a match, all your profits will go to a loss and you may also lose your original capital. That is why those who bet on sportsbooks take big risks along with good teams and that is why if you win a big odd one, you get a big fund. Different people use different strategies, but all strategies have risks. There is no gambling without risk

[Queen uloma]

OP are you expecting small odds to be a win game because it's small? There is only a higher chance that the big team will win, it doesn't guarantee it simply because the odds are small.

How the big team will perform is unknown to anyone, it's just that teams with small odds simply means they are stronger and likely to win the game, don't bet on that thinking that it's a must that they will win.

Either small or big odds always risk what you can afford to lose.

One mistake that most bettor make is to believe that small odds means to guaranteed win. Even though big teams have higher chances of winning, football doesn’t follow prediction always. Anything can happen during the match and underdogs can still surprise everyone.

Small odd only shows probability, it doesn’t mean that the outcome is already decided. Whether it’s small or big odds , just like you have said, it’s good to stake what you can afford to lose.

[r_victory]

This is the famous underdog. It usually pays more, and bettors rarely think of risking it; it's a bet that goes against all predictions. You were certainly very lucky with this win, but the topic title doesn't reflect reality; on the contrary, it's riskier to bet on the underdog and win.

[Muba20]

If a weaker team is playing against a stronger team, it is very difficult to bet on the weak team. Although it is certainly a great joy to win the bet, how many people will bet knowing the certain loss? I have never won such big odds bets. When I have bet on a weak team, the team has lost. I was annoyed by losing bets many times before and ended up gambling with a small amount of money. I gave up the hope of winning that bet because I had bet on odds 12 times higher at that time, but when I got the result, I was very surprised because I had no chance of winning that bet, but I did win. In reality, winning such a bet creates a different feeling in the gambler. Moreover, in gambling, there is no guarantee that the big team will always win. Only those who can take risks occasionally will have the provability of winning such bets.

[Pandorak]

This incident is not only in the case of cricket, it also happens in the game of football, many times a strong team loses to a weak team, naturally it becomes difficult to accept such a defeat at times but there is nothing to be done because the truth is bitter but it is the truth and it will never change and we have to accept it. I am a football fan as you said in the game of football I have seen some teams lose which I never imagined they would lose to a weak team, naturally I never thought that. No matter how strong the team is, there is no guarantee of winning in gambling, this is the reality.

In reality, no matter what sport, whether it’s cricket or soccer, both teams still have a wide open chance of winning, it’s just that there are analyses that make predictions based on the teams previous matchups, current statistics, the players on each team, etc. Based on these factors, it becomes clear which team has a better chance of winning, but the fact is, it’s not uncommon to see the underdog pull off an incredible upset and defeat the favorite. It may sound impossible, but as you said, reality is harsh and incidents like this will always happen, We just don't know which team is capable of doing it, it all comes down to our individual luck.

[Agbe]

Am not a fan of cricket but this happens in almost every sport, no matter how good a team may be there are times where such a team will lose to a much weaker team. We have seen it play out over and over be it boxing, football etc as far as a team sport is concerned you expect an upset. Infact I have come across Gamblers who don't bet on the usual big team but they go against the traditional behavior of the average gambler and take smaller teams which are usually considered weak, the problem with this is that you will have to be waiting for a long time before you can heat the jackpot.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

I am familiar with cricket and I have played it for years. That's why I always pick up cricket. And whoever is fond of cricket will understand my question much better. Although the question is very general and hope all of you will understand. A match against Australia and Zimbabwe was played about a decade ago. And the over-confidence of betting people on Australia sinked them. Like 1 dollar for the one who bet on Australia win and 100 dollars if zimbabwe win. Unlucky was the day for those when Taylor of Zimbabwe made 60 runs and played a vital role in Zimbabwe win. It was just good luck for the people who bet on Zimbabwe win, because they already knew the strength of Australian team at that time.

It was a match no body imagined that Zimbabwe will win from the four time world champions. Unlike today's IPL in which most of the matches are fixed. Have you ever bet on a team which was very weak and you have won 10 times more than expected in any kind of sports?

Maybe the Zimbabwe team had a restructuring of players, coaches, and probably it's entire management before the game which they met with the Australian team. Because it is very possible for a team that was very weak last season to come up after a year or two and start performing better when its been managed by an experience coach. And situations like this are very common in sports games, but just that it takes luck and solid information about the capacity of new players newly signed into a weak club. And lastly, i have had similar lucks betting on games on football local leagues games.

[Juicyhome]

As I write Feyenoord just drew to Fortuna sittard in a die minute,  Feyenoord to win wa a 1.11 odds yet they couldn't win against Fortuna sittard with over 6odds. Feyenoord is a very strong team in the Netherland league there are topping the table after 11 games, while Fortuna sittard are in 6 position,  I believe 90% of gamblers play over 2.5 and direct wining for Feyenoord in this game yet they couldn't score or win the man as the strongest team in this game , I was really disappointed for the draw, all my tickets are gone the mistake I made was to put Feyenoord in all my tickets today. This is this risk of putting strong team in your game, believing it will be a very sure bet, the turn out is always unpredictable at rhe end,  have learnt my lesson tonight, no team is strong in gambling any team can win at the end, they only use odde to deceive us.

[free-bit.co.in]

It was just good luck for the people who bet on Zimbabwe win

Interestingly such story has unfolded all over again, in completely new way.
Last February, at T20 World Cup in Colombo, Zimbabwe defeated Australia once again, this time by 23 run.

Thus, in history of T20 World Cup, Zimbabwe now lead Australia 2-0.
Scenario you raised, a strong team losing to weaker one, is perfectly illustrated by this very recent example.

However, you are saying that for those who bet on Zimbabwe and won, it was merely matter of good luck. But same time, you also claim that they already knew about the strength of Australian team . If they truly took risk after careful analysis then it is not merely any matter of luck. But rather calculated decision.
Most major underdog win in cricket betting are actually mix a bit of analysis and bit of lucky day.

[Makus]

OP are you expecting small odds to be a win game because it's small? There is only a higher chance that the big team will win, it doesn't guarantee it simply because the odds are small.

That's the mistake that a lot of bettors make, they assume that a team with that the odds are in favour of are always expected to win, even though the odds indicates which side actually has a high chance of winning this isn't always the case because there are some factors that bettors fail to put into consideration. Like you said, there are no guarantees of winning just because the odds is of low value.

With the experience that I have betting only based on odds is actually a bad idea because when you don't check stats and always assume you end up falling into a trap.

[AmaGold70]

This can happen in any sport. I bet on football most of the time and I have seen it also happened in football countless number of times. So it is not a surprise if you see it happened in cricket. If you are watching any sport very well, you will noticed it happening every year in some matches. This is the reason we do post that no odd is guaranteed, no matter how small it is. I have lost 1.01 odd before in football that I bet on Spain.

It is not uncommon to see big teams being defeated by small teams, though this doesn't happen always. Am equally more familiar with sports betting, and sometimes you don't have to play direct winning all the time . For instance if a team is high in scoring goals you can decide to play goals instead of playing direct winning. I have played several games where big teams disappointed my bet because I gave the big teams to win, and if I had played goals maybe I would have won those bet. You don't need to underate any team in the pitch of play even though big teams might have some kind of advantage but Small teams should not be despised.

[Die_empty]

Maybe the Zimbabwe team had a restructuring of players, coaches, and probably it's entire management before the game which they met with the Australian team. Because it is very possible for a team that was very weak last season to come up after a year or two and start performing better when its been managed by an experience coach. And situations like this are very common in sports games, but just that it takes luck and solid information about the capacity of new players newly signed into a weak club. And lastly, i have had similar lucks betting on games on football local leagues games.

Different factors could affect the performance of a team. Injuries or poor displays affecting key players, poor officiating, or tactical blunders from coaches could make a good team lose games. In some situations, these good sides would do all they can to win games, but they are unlucky to win. I have watched a football match where the best side's shot hit the goalpost more than six times during a single match. It was clear that they would have won the match but they were unlucky. So sports bettors should always consider these factors before placing bets on favourites.