Do you believe on this statement by the CEO of Kalshi

[Webetcoins]

Prediction market is not that bad however the only thing that makes it looks bad is the insider info being leak and thats kinda unfair on the masses. Well can we stop this? Maybe nah! Cause the one cause this is the insider people and just using the platform.

Everywhere insider information plays that dirty role and I am sure that prediction market must be getting impacted due to insider information up to a significant level. At the same time, regulations will not stop those manipulators as they are easily finding solutions to bypass any restriction. This is the reason, I never touch prediction market even odds are attractive to me sometimes. Instead of burning my fingers, just sticking with few sportsbetting sounds to me better and gives good sleep to me. I may try prediction market if this community recommends any after hundreds of reviews from real time experience but I guess that may take years to be possible.

[asriloni]

Saying some BS to protect your business is sometimes needed even when public knew it know very well if there were also elites backed your business. This is what Kalshi is trying to do. They're playing victim strategy to draw public attention with the hope it can change states not to ban them. Yet, i hope states try to ban them because regulating them in the federal level is a non sense thing that has done by Trump.

Beside that i'm also getting sick to see him keep claiming prediction market ain't a gambling platform. I understood he had his prediction market acted as a marketplace in his POV, but not being a casino doesn't mean it's not a gambling.

I agree that prediction markets unlocked access to markets that were not available to the public before. The part I don't like about prediction markets is that there is too much information asymmetry and it makes the game unfair at the end of the day. Access is good but we also need the playing field to be level.

The problem is those market were so prone to the market manipulation. It's just the place for people to grifting each other.

[Agbe]

“elites will never love these markets and they’ll always attack us,” telling Patrick Bet-David prediction markets represent “the first time that information is flowing from people, bottom up.”
”We don’t have gatekeepers of the truth.”

They will never love it because they are not controlling the market and if they were, they would not attack them. Anything for the benefits of the people the elites will not like it to expose or allow us to benefit and if anyone exposed it for the masses, the elites will fight with the person very seriously. Many things were not part of gambling has been exposed by the Prediction market and the fear here is, casinos will loss clients for prediction market. But that is not really the truth. Gamblers are looking for a genuine place to have entertained.

[AprilioMP]

It's not that I don't believe it or disbelieve it, but prediction markets are similar to gambling. People do it for fun and are willing to spend money. Prediction markets are suited to the elite who aren't burdened by the prospect of losing money.
It's understandable that regulators have protested the integrity of prediction markets.
Prediction markets, like the childhood game people around me played, were guessing which bus would pass.

[alani123]

This is absolute end total bs if you ask me.

Prediction markets incentivize further milking of bottom tier traders from the elites because only the elites are going to have insider information on most markets. Obviously those with wealth and power have access to more insider info than a random trader so it's also evident that by commodifying insider knowledge the elites are going to earn even more which in a prediction. Market context happens at the direct expense of the bottom people.

Anyone trying to say otherwise is lying.

[Sandra_hakeem]

This is absolute end total bs if you ask me.

Prediction markets incentivize further milking of bottom tier traders from the elites because only the elites are going to have insider information on most markets. Obviously those with wealth and power have access to more insider info than a random trader so it's also evident that by commodifying insider knowledge the elites are going to earn even more which in a prediction. Market context happens at the direct expense of the bottom people.

Anyone trying to say otherwise is lying.

So, this is just a direct occurrence of an aphorism--- "The rich keeps getting richer and the poor gets poorer"? The dark part of it is that nobody in authority can confront the owners of this multi-million dollar fraud company. Perhaps they'll just invite you over and give you some slot to trade against the entire masses. Easy money anytime, anyday huh?

There was a certain time I heard some nasty rumors about Trump Jr being granted access to an insider knowledge on, I think Poly market IIRC. Now I learned he's an unpaid adviser to poly market, and also a paid strategic adviser to its rival, Kalshi. I don't know what to believe but sometimes, rumors don't fly for no reason.

[Ashawowo(OS)]

Secondly, Prediction market is avoiding paying taxes and claim they aren't gambling.

I don't really see how this would prevent you from paying taxes. Even if you don't pay gambling tax, you'll be mandated by law to pay income tax, so profits from prediction markets is still taxable and users would pay tax when they withdraw/ liquidate their coins to fiat. It is not about claims, prediction markets is not yet seen as gambling in the eyes of the law and until then, their claims are legally right.

[Swordsoffreedom]

This would have made more sense if prediction markets bring out information that are secrets. I mean, all the information that people bet on in prediction markets is information that would still be public later on. So how are they bringing out information that the traditional media, politicians and the rest would want to keep quiet?
The prediction market still relies on information from the traditional media.
Let's not act like they are bringing information that used to be secrete. Information that are secrets don't show up in prediction markets.

Even when traditional media, politician and corporate gatekeeper receive public information, they hype it up and manipulate it to suit their own agenda. They decide what ordinary people should believe and what they should not. But in prediction market, when people stake their own money, empty propaganda and political maneuvering carry no weight.

When your own money is at risk, you won’t offer any false and biased opinion just to make someone feel good. Everyone will then try to figure out actual probability.
What you said that prediction market depend on traditional media is correct. While media outlet merely sell news and opinion, prediction market measure actual value and impact of that news.
This is where gatekeepers real fear lies. They do not want public to grasp actual truth, free from influence of media and without any filter.

[Alpha Marine]

Even when traditional media, politician and corporate gatekeeper receive public information, they hype it up and manipulate it to suit their own agenda. They decide what ordinary people should believe and what they should not. But in prediction market, when people stake their own money, empty propaganda and political maneuvering carry no weight.

When your own money is at risk, you won’t offer any false and biased opinion just to make someone feel good. Everyone will then try to figure out actual probability.
What you said that prediction market depend on traditional media is correct. While media outlet merely sell news and opinion, prediction market measure actual value and impact of that news.
This is where gatekeepers real fear lies. They do not want public to grasp actual truth, free from influence of media and without any filter.

You're not entirely correct.
The problem you're having is that you feel the things people bet on are things that wouldn't have come to light if not for prediction markets, and that is not true at all. These are not some top-secret information that only a select few will know about. These are information that the public will know and be able to verify.
Even the ones that are gambled on by people with insider knowledge, they would still have become public.
Take the arrest of the Venezuelan president, for example. Somebody with insider knowledge gambled on it and won, but it later became public. There was no wya the government was going to hide the attack after it had happened.
I understand that politicians lie and use propaganda, but prediction markets do not stop that, because those are not what people bet on.
Politicians won't come out to tell you that there was a secret attack in a foreign coutry simply because there is a prediction market. Or that they have funded terrorists simply because there is a prediction market.
Prediction market brings no new information. Everything that is traded on prediction market are information that will be public in the future.

[o48o]

Do you believe in  Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour statement that;

“elites will never love these markets and they’ll always attack us,” telling Patrick Bet-David prediction markets represent “the first time that information is flowing from people, bottom up.”
”We don’t have gatekeepers of the truth.”

https://x.com/CoinMarketCap/status/2116759396164223119

He believes that regulators are attacking the integrity of prediction markets because they let information spread to the masses, and they claim to be democratic for spreading information that was once not available to people. What's your take on this? Is there some truth to this?

That's just misleading populism, but i guess these days it's working to pretend being "for truth", when they are actually for profit.

Word "elitist" has been just a dog whistle for ignorant people, that's trying to rally masses behind billionaires against some "evil elite" that just wants to control us.
It's just a populist political tool creating polarization between imaginary "them" and "us". Never mind that "them" is trying to set safeguards against billionaires like Kalsi CEO with $2.6 billion net worth, which ironically makes him the very definition of elitist.

[Davidvictorson]

Do you believe in  Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour statement that;

“elites will never love these markets and they’ll always attack us,” telling Patrick Bet-David prediction markets represent “the first time that information is flowing from people, bottom up.”
”We don’t have gatekeepers of the truth.”

https://x.com/CoinMarketCap/status/2116759396164223119

He believes that regulators are attacking the integrity of prediction markets because they let information spread to the masses, and they claim to be democratic for spreading information that was once not available to people. What's your take on this? Is there some truth to this?

lol…
The CEO is hilarious.
Isn’t he one of the elites?
Aren’t they making money off of people’s losses?
There’s no difference between a prediction market and a gambling platform and he knows it.
If they are going to continue being in business, they should be regulated just as gambling counterparts.
Lastly, they’re aren’t doing anything he said they are doing- the media and the internet already does that.

[Smartprofit]

This is absolute end total bs if you ask me.

Prediction markets incentivize further milking of bottom tier traders from the elites because only the elites are going to have insider information on most markets. Obviously those with wealth and power have access to more insider info than a random trader so it's also evident that by commodifying insider knowledge the elites are going to earn even more which in a prediction. Market context happens at the direct expense of the bottom people.

Anyone trying to say otherwise is lying.

There are people on our forum who trade on Polymatket and periodically boast about their winnings. These people are clearly not part of Donald Trump's inner circle. However, from what I've seen, they enjoy playing poker, are undoubtedly intelligent, and possess strong analytical skills. 🙋

Yes, of course, if you have inside information, then in terms of winning prospects, this is the best option. However, many simply play against the crowd, relying on their intellect and analytical skills. Moreover, there is such a thing as expertise, not just fake, ostentatious expertise, but genuine professional expertise, and it is this expertise that allows you to make money on bets!

What you write about members of the ruling elite making money on inside information is certainly true. However, it should be noted that by betting on the prediction market, these people are exchanging their knowledge for money, making it public. From a social perspective, this, in my opinion, is a good thing.

Incidentally, prediction markets can be used not only by politicians but also by businessmen. Prediction markets can be used to hedge business risks. 💁

[Sim_card]

I don't really see how this would prevent you from paying taxes. Even if you don't pay gambling tax, you'll be mandated by law to pay income tax, so profits from prediction markets is still taxable and users would pay tax when they withdraw/ liquidate their coins to fiat. It is not about claims, prediction markets is not yet seen as gambling in the eyes of the law and until then, their claims are legally right.

Do you know that Commodity Futures Traing Commission CFCTC regulates Kalshi as a Designated Contract Market and that let them bypass state gambling taxes. This also gives them the advantage to operate in countries that gambling is prohibited or ban gambling apps. Why did New York sued Kalshi for $36B. It was because they made a lot of money up to $40B in the world cup games and didn't pay a dime to New York as tax.

[Dogedegen]

This is absolute end total bs if you ask me.

Prediction markets incentivize further milking of bottom tier traders from the elites because only the elites are going to have insider information on most markets. Obviously those with wealth and power have access to more insider info than a random trader so it's also evident that by commodifying insider knowledge the elites are going to earn even more which in a prediction. Market context happens at the direct expense of the bottom people.

Anyone trying to say otherwise is lying.

You didn't think this one fully through then. If other people are making good money and are profitable at prediction markets and we are not, that does not make them bad or evil. We should not come up with biased reasons to hate them simply because we can't be part of that group for some reason. It is important to learn where bias should stop and objective analysis should begin. He has a good point with this even if the post is not entirely accurate. It seems many users just rush to repeat the easiest answer to this post, while ignoring the truth of the matter. I already gave some perspective that can be considered.

You are not allowed to spread a lot of information that could get your close people richer. But such information sharing is very common among the elites even if they lobbied for laws to prevent it. How are you going to prove it? Someone who is rich and regularly making money makes his insider trading and profitability hidden in his usual activity. If you are a low class or middle class person suddenly earn a lot of money from an unusual trade it will be a big alert. Many activities and markets are even restricted to you if you are not rich enough and do not qualify, so yes there are many systems in place that prevent you from using information and sharing it with others. Trump's team but also the Democrats regularly make impossible amounts of money when they are in charge of the US.

While it is illegal, it provides a way for normal people to use insider information. We can ignore the question of legality to demonstrate the example. If you have insider information that gives you 100% certainty of a very profitable event, you will put all the money that you can on that bet. You'd be foolish not to. As this information continues to get to light through the bets placed, that means that the prediction itself is becoming more an oracle of truth or it gives a platform for such information to reach the masses. Anyway insider trading laws mainly exist to prevent average people from enriching themselves with any insider information that they can get while working somewhere, it does not exist to prevent ultra rich people from earning a few more millions. But some like to believe the lies that politicians tell them. 

[Chinesebaby]

“elites will never love these markets and they’ll always attack us,” telling Patrick Bet-David prediction markets represent “the first time that information is flowing from people, bottom up.”
”We don’t have gatekeepers of the truth.”

The elite are truly not in support of prediction markets, simply because it's in their favour,  because the moment the elites start having control over its game predictions and are making profits from it, then you will see that they will all start loving prediction markets, just as it's been done in some sport games where it's outcome are been fixed. And moreover, prediction market only give room to gamblers to predict the possible outcome of an event, which could be either politics, movie, music, Sports or any other events that people will have genuine interest about it. So it's just better the prediction market just totally avoid politics, since it seems that's what is triggering the elites on the society.

[Ryu_Ar1]

It depends on the context of the gambling that is done it seems because the nature of the prediction market is still free where sometimes there are some bets that are not even supposed to be ethical to bet and some American regulations are now even trying to implement that politics, sara issues and some things that should be taboo cannot be used as betting material in the prediction market because apart from that it is less convenient this can also interfere with their stability in regulating some information that must be shown to the surface and which must be kept secret.

So that the demands or interventions of the elites will continue to exist as long as this still exists unless it is possible that this can be minimized by regulation then maybe the elites will not care about the prediction market.

[OgNasty]

Of course there are going to be regulators attacking Kalshi. Gambling companies spent decades funding lobbyists to make inroads in gambling. Now that they’re starting to be legalized and see success these prediction markets swoop in and start taking all the profit. A lot of rich folks aren’t going to like that….

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

He believes that regulators are attacking the integrity of prediction markets because they let information spread to the masses, and they claim to be democratic for spreading information that was once not available to people.

I will definitely appreciate the regulators for attacking prediction market because they are mostly not to be trusted, if the same regulations can be so serious with all the handle gambling and don't permit for any irresponsibility with gambling, not to then expect them to even do more with prediction market that is far away worse from what gambling serves.

[alegotardo]

What's your take on this? Is there some truth to this?

I think it is true that prediction markets aggregate the decisions of a many people who risk money and that this incorporates scattered information much faster than traditional polls,  Kalshi is not an offshore platform outside the system, it has been authorized to operate as an exchange regulated by the CFTC from the beginning and I think this is what bothers the "traditional" competition.

But.... they are not the owners of the truth either, I've seen both Kalshi and Polymarket get final election results predictions terribly wrong several times, and not only this... even among the smaller options, it is common for prediction markets to overestimate candidates with little chance of winning.

Anyway... my opinion is that they are better than traditional polls, but even so, they are not the owners of the truth.

[kennycryptoitalia]

Do you believe in  Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour statement that;

“elites will never love these markets and they’ll always attack us,” telling Patrick Bet-David prediction markets represent “the first time that information is flowing from people, bottom up.”
”We don’t have gatekeepers of the truth.”

https://x.com/CoinMarketCap/status/2116759396164223119

He believes that regulators are attacking the integrity of prediction markets because they let information spread to the masses, and they claim to be democratic for spreading information that was once not available to people. What's your take on this? Is there some truth to this?

I honestly don't know whether to believe this character or not.
I've never used prediction markets, but I've never read good things about them, at least not recently, since it was discovered that someone had predicted Maduro's kidnapping. Very strange, especially since it happened just days before the event.