BTC Sentiment Poll for November

[pooya87]

The next thing we should monitor is going to be Japan.

As you know over the past couple of years Japan turned into one of the largest bag-holders of the US regime's treasury bonds after China started dumping those and started slowly pulling out of that sinking ship. But that move and the fact that occupied Japan is a slave to the Epstein Axis has been devastating to the Japanese economy.

To prevent that devastation, one of things the Japanese government has been doing has been selling those bonds and using the dollars they get to pump into their own fiat. Basically they dump the regime's bonds to receive the dollar, then go on the foreign-exchange markets to use those dollars to buy yen (manipulating the market) to keep Yen from dumping hard. Since July alone they have bought ¥15.399 trillion using their dollar they've gotten.

According to the US regime's Department of Treasury stats[1] we can see that the regime's destabilizing actions since March (the terrorist attacks US and Epstein Axis carried out against Iranians that brought Iran's devastating retaliations) the Japanese have been dumping the regime's treasury bonds. Coming down from $1,239 billion down to $1,068 billion (August stats, their next stat release is apparently on November 18).

This move has 2 consequences both of which could lead to higher interest rates:
1. It increases circulating dollar. As I said they are injecting the dollar into the FOREX to keep Yen up. Higher supply could lead to more depreciation of the already dumping dollar. Something they only slow down by increasing the interest rates.
2. It increases the bonds supply. As I said they are dumping their bonds to get the dollars. The market is already struggling to absorb the existing bonds and "interest" in them is dwindling. To keep that interest up they could increase the "interest rates" more to make them more attractive to bag-holders.

So what's the sentiment?
Higher interest rates could bring more volatility to bitcoin market starting with an initial sell pressure on the market as they money is pulled out of the market causing a drop and then a bounce back as people who were waiting for an opportunity to buy, jump in.

[1] https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html

[Wind_FURY]

My expectations are bullish, but the market is not going as I expected. In November, I expected Bitcoin to pump and take time to recover. But the reality is that Bitcoin is losing value.

We have just finished the first week, there are still 3 weeks left in the month. This time may be enough for a big move, it is not yet certain whether Bitcoin will stabilize at $75-$80k or fall or rise in value. My expectations are always on the upside, it is better if it is above $90k.

We'll wait for a Bullish Catalyst which could be seen on November 10 CPI numbers announcement. If the inflation numbers are lower than expected, then we might probably see a more dovish Fed during the next FOMC meeting in December, which would give another Bullish Catalyst.

BUT there's also a Bearish Catalyst - The heist on Binance which would definitely cause the market to be more fearful than greedy.

It seems that bitcoin market has already discounted the US midterm election results and hack on binance exchange. Today, we are testing again $76k level which must be a good sign because after binance hack news bitcoin dropped below $74.9 level from $80k but managed to hold around $75k for more than 4 days and now showing some recovery.

I read there are 2 new bitcoin ETF and Trump is initiating fresh talk with China which may bring back smooth world trades and stability to every market. Personally I expect 2026's bearish market is going to end in this November but that doesn't mean that we are going to test $100k level straight away. Bear may get exhausted and bulls will start searching for power in this November month.

Plus wait for the release of the October CPI in two hours and thirty minutes.

A better than expected CPI print = Probably the market already priced it in. A worse than expected CPI = The market will probably go on a mini-crash/panic sell.

It's going to be an opportunity for Bitcoin HODLers.

[okorieemmanuel]

I have nothing really much to say except that the market has gotten interesting again after getting a bit predictable knowing that it's gonna be the start of a proper bull run.  But with the shenanigans happening in tardfi and with all these hacks, not to mention the biggest crypto heist in history via Binance, everything isn't so sure to be going on a bull run.

Will be see another trend down below 70k?  I'm not really sure...  But I made a simple enough poll to see where the sentiment is rn.

The market is rigged. First it was BITGET. NOW BINANCE HACKED! If these two events never happened, it would have been a different story altogether.

[CryptoBuds]

The market is rigged. First it was BITGET. NOW BINANCE HACKED! If these two events never happened, it would have been a different story altogether.

How different would the market even be?

The market is affected by all sorts of factors . Who's to say that without the Binance incident, some other negative event wouldn't have hit it ? That's just your assumption.

Rigged or not, truth is market's always been hard to predict, and nobody can say for sure which way it's heading . All we can do is size up what's driving the price and accept that not every move can be explained or seen coming.

More important, always keep a plan B . Don't just bet on the scenario you expect to happen, then start looking for something to blame when the market doesn't go your way 

[asriloni]

I understand your concern about the midterm election, but I wouldn't overweight the Senate composition as the main driver of the market price right now, and we shouldn't see the level of anti-crypto sentiment among those in the Senate as something that will prevent the market uptrend due to how the market was able to experience an uptrend when none of the people in office supported crypto.

If we look at the market price action based on the chart, the dump is normal before the next year's bull market, and this is something the market always does.
Second, the heatmap liquidity you mentioned earlier around 60k is still the real magnet if selling pressure continues, but a clean hold above 73k keeps the door open for a relief bounce.
Meanwhile, the dip to 73k and the bounce match what a lot of people believe will happen after the election results, and if we get a softer inflation print or any positive catalyst, the last hope price level could turn into a temporary floor instead of a breakdown spot.

Curious to see how the next few days turn out, since crypto is not the only market affected.

Midterm was one of factor that is contributing to the bearish trend of bitcoin. When you get anti crypto people sitting on senate, it can drive crypto to be bearish. Beside that i've also said that in my previous picture about TA if the price of bitcoin would be falling to the 60k range if it was losing 73k - 75k support.

We're already broke 73k, and potentially moving down even further. The bubble is already burst. I start to feel bearish right now. I doubt a reversal trend can happen unless with get a bomb news to the market.

I believe market is gonna be even more bearish in the next days. November feels a red month for crypto.

[suzanne5223]

I understand your concern about the midterm election, but I wouldn't overweight the Senate composition as the main driver of the market price right now, and we shouldn't see the level of anti-crypto sentiment among those in the Senate as something that will prevent the market uptrend due to how the market was able to experience an uptrend when none of the people in office supported crypto.

If we look at the market price action based on the chart, the dump is normal before the next year's bull market, and this is something the market always does.
Second, the heatmap liquidity you mentioned earlier around 60k is still the real magnet if selling pressure continues, but a clean hold above 73k keeps the door open for a relief bounce.
Meanwhile, the dip to 73k and the bounce match what a lot of people believe will happen after the election results, and if we get a softer inflation print or any positive catalyst, the last hope price level could turn into a temporary floor instead of a breakdown spot.

Curious to see how the next few days turn out, since crypto is not the only market affected.

Midterm was one of factor that is contributing to the bearish trend of bitcoin. When you get anti crypto people sitting on senate, it can drive crypto to be bearish. Beside that i've also said that in my previous picture about TA if the price of bitcoin would be falling to the 60k range if it was losing 73k - 75k support.

We're already broke 73k, and potentially moving down even further. The bubble is already burst. I start to feel bearish right now. I doubt a reversal trend can happen unless with get a bomb news to the market.

I believe market is gonna be even more bearish in the next days. November feels a red month for crypto.

Price breaking 73k is a valid concern, and the short-term structure looks weak right now based on my understanding. Therefore, BTC losing that zone opens the door toward lower liquidity, which is why i supported your reasoning for being bearish, as you mentioned earlier.

But you saying the bubble already burst and not considering any price reversal without confirmation of price action on the BTC chart feels a bit early. Besides, we've seen multiple times where a clean break of a key level was followed by a sharp reclaim once the forced sellers were done, and the last time i checked, November still has almost 3weeks left, and if you trade the financial market, you'll know that a single soft CPI print or positive macro catalyst can flip the market sentiment.

I'm not dismissing the fact about bearish case but we shouldn't fully rule out a relief bounce of the market either until we see how price reacts to the next couple of data releases and what the next BTC daily candle print, since BTC price action currently respected the FVG in the $72K price. Nevertheless, i am watching the 70-71k price range closely as the next real test.

[okorieemmanuel]

The market is rigged. First it was BITGET. NOW BINANCE HACKED! If these two events never happened, it would have been a different story altogether.

How different would the market even be?

The market is affected by all sorts of factors . Who's to say that without the Binance incident, some other negative event wouldn't have hit it ? That's just your assumption.

Rigged or not, truth is market's always been hard to predict, and nobody can say for sure which way it's heading . All we can do is size up what's driving the price and accept that not every move can be explained or seen coming.

More important, always keep a plan B . Don't just bet on the scenario you expect to happen, then start looking for something to blame when the market doesn't go your way 

You don't understand. Please check October 29 and 30 market report.Despite BINANCE HACKED and over $6.3 billion in assets stolen, there was STILL A HUGE TRANSACTION such that the market recovered with such theft . Even when Binance clearly stated that withdrawal was temporarily halted,. That's why our ' UPTOBER' was so 'DOWN TO EARTH ' . The volume Binance and other exchange have on the market is massive. Bitcoin price was rigged. Anyway, my back up is intact. The next support level is definitely a glorified quick sand. . . Let's hope none of this Shenanigans repeat itself again.

[Wind_FURY]

The mini-crash happened after CPI announcement.

The next situation to wait for is next month during the next FOMC meeting in December. Will Kevin Warsh raise rates again, or will he find "something" in the data that will cause him to leave the rates unchanged?

Rate left unchanged = Surge
Rate hike = Crash

[tokeweed]

Wow we're almost at the middle of the month.  How time flies fast these days...

Anyway, more people seem to think that the price will end up higher at the end of the month which could say one thing...  They already bought and they're hoping for BTC would go up.

The guys who voted no are prolly still sidelined and are waiting for it to go lower before going in.

[drangos]

The current price is $74k. It dropped after the US midterm election. It's quite interesting to see its impact, but guess what? The price of Bitcoin keeps on changing for many reasons. We're still unsure how it moves in the coming months because even before, we thought that the ber months drive positive interest and high demand drive in the next few months can't possibly happen this year.

As I can remember the price of Bitcoin has always been changing for many reasons and not one particular reason. it can fall because of a government policy this month' and fall for another reason in the next months. Sometimes the price of Bitcoin can rise or fall for the same reason and I think there is a high chance that the price of Bitcoin is going to increase before November ends regardless of what is happening to the market currently and if that happens then we can see the price of Bitcoin trading above what the highest price on October 31st was. There are many reason why people are thinking Bitcoin is falling now but I just think this is a correction that was expected from the market because of the massive ran it had last month.

I believe there are several factors at play that affect the price of Bitcoin and it's hard to pinpoint all of the market movements to one event or announcement. Other times, political events. Economic policies or investor sentiment impact the market and other times. It's just a normal market correction. As far as I'm concerned, the recent drop is a correction from the impressive rise we had last month. But do not discount a further recovery before the end of November. With renewed buying pressure. Bitcoin may end up trading higher than the price seen on October 31st. However it is better to be safe than sorry. And to not expect a market to bounce back within a certain period.

[Just Say]

The price of Bitcoin on October 31st was around $76,000, and right now it is around $78k. I think the price is recovering back to where it was before the Binance challenge, and before the hack, the price was on the rise.

It is very possible for the Bitcoin price to reach $85,000 and above by the end of this month. If it doesn't reach this speculated amount, it will still be more than what we saw at the end of October, unless there is bad news that can affect the market and cause the price of Bitcoin to decrease.

Bitcoin is currently $75,000 and I will not be surprised to see if the price drop more than that, some of us think that bitcoin is going to rise at the end of the year but i don’t think we understand that bitcoin can not be predicted, i will not also say it is very possible for the price to reach $85,000 and above because bitcoin did not move like it will reach $100k, there are many things that will affect bitcoin price this year, that is why as an investor, do not think you can predict bitcoin.

Although it is possible for bitcoin to reach $100k but we should not expect it to happen, we have one month and few weeks to end the and the price is still dropping, anything can happen before the end of the year but we should not put in mind that bitcoin is going to reach $100k at the end of this year.

Bitcoin price don't work by prediction and that is why we must make up our minds before starting our bitcoin investment or before deciding a long-term investment. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $75k two days ago and I think we should be expecting more of this especially this first half of this month. I also think that it's becoming obvious that the price could dip below $70k before it can regain its strength. Keeping expectations low is the best option for anyone right now to avoid panic. The focus should be on accumulating more and more bitcoin right now at this dip but not overdoing it.

Definitely everyone should make up their mind before starting to invest in Bitcoin or making a long-term investment decision. It's almost mid-November but it still looks like the Bitcoin market is in my opinion not bullish as the price of Bitcoin has been in the $70k to $75k range for the past few days. Actually it seems to us that Bitcoin prices are struggling to recover the $75,000 level, largely due to weak buying demand and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. So it is clear that the focus should now be on accumulating more bitcoins and following the right strategy to aggressively buy bitcoins with additional funds in the opportunity of this price fall.

[kawetsriyanto]

Personally, I don't believe that Bitcoin will crash below $70,000 again. We have seen the Binance hack happen, and it didn't cause a more than 30% crash in one week like the Black Swans that Bitcoin has gone through before.

I also try to ignore the potential of possible decline below $70k again. However, I don't think it is impossible if Bitcoin can stay above $75k again in the near future. Moreover if Bitcoin price keeps declining to the lower price and we have another bad news. This is possible to lead to a lower $75k again. However, Bitcoin price may increase again constantly if there will be no bad news again in the near future and Bitcoin returns to $75k again in the next few days. Now, let's see what will happen to Bitcoin price in the next few days.

There's no bigger crypto Black Swan this Bear Cycle than the Binance Hack. All these DIPS are now for buying.

We can't conclude it now since the bearish still lasts. But honestly I hope your statement will come true. 

[tokeweed]

^  It's now at 72.5k so if anything there's a higher chance for BTC to trend back down below 70k USD than not.    It's just funny how some people refuse to believe that it's happening right in front of them.

Anyway, three more days before I lock the poll.  Get your votes in if you still haven't voted yet.

And if I were to ask you again today the same question as the one in the poll, would you still have thesame vote or would you change your vote?

[asriloni]

Price breaking 73k is a valid concern, and the short-term structure looks weak right now based on my understanding. Therefore, BTC losing that zone opens the door toward lower liquidity, which is why i supported your reasoning for being bearish, as you mentioned earlier.

But you saying the bubble already burst and not considering any price reversal without confirmation of price action on the BTC chart feels a bit early. Besides, we've seen multiple times where a clean break of a key level was followed by a sharp reclaim once the forced sellers were done, and the last time i checked, November still has almost 3weeks left, and if you trade the financial market, you'll know that a single soft CPI print or positive macro catalyst can flip the market sentiment.

I'm not dismissing the fact about bearish case but we shouldn't fully rule out a relief bounce of the market either until we see how price reacts to the next couple of data releases and what the next BTC daily candle print, since BTC price action currently respected the FVG in the $72K price. Nevertheless, i am watching the 70-71k price range closely as the next real test.

CPI does impact the market but it's not as big as before and it can't flip the market sentiment instantly. The sellers don't even let the market to pullback. I'm currently putting 69k as the key.  Let's see where the market is going on, but i feel it looks like we're gonna be at 60k range at the end of this month.

[Cryptoprincess101]

Personally, I don't believe that Bitcoin will crash below $70,000 again. We have seen the Binance hack happen, and it didn't cause a more than 30% crash in one week like the Black Swans that Bitcoin has gone through before.

There's no bigger crypto Black Swan this Bear Cycle than the Binance Hack. All these DIPS are now for buying.

 

With the market now sitted at $72k, the next bearish movement will go below $70k so it is most likely to happen. Were you expecting Binance hack to affect the market negatively? Look, we have gone over the era when exchange hacks becomes a major factor that leads to severe DIP. It might even be that most of the coins that people are holding on exchanges are stable coins and other cryptocurrency they trade with and not bitcoin. That aside, Binance was able to manage the situation and it didn't cause an uproar so there was never a way for the market to respond negatively. Of course, DIPs are time to maximise profits by buying at low prices but do you think that the market will experience a buying effort that would help gather momentum for a sudden uptrend? I don't think so anyway.