Does your country have a version of prediction market, or is one coming up?

[robelneo]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.



 

[Ziskinberg]

I think these are not yet fully launched, and I've been looking for their licenses but I cannot find them online. So it's safe to say that in the Philippines we still don't have a properly regulated prediction market. Because if other countries are already becoming stricter with regulations due to possible insider information or manipulation of results then I think without the government establishing clear rules, operators should not be allowed to offer these services yet.

For now Polymarket and Kalshi are among the most popular, and both have regulatory approval in the US, but they also serve other countries where they are not restricted, so even here in our country I think we might still be able to access them.

[DubemIfedigbo001]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

Yeah, in my country we already have "Signal" which was launched by Busha, a local exchange in Nigeria and is licensed by Lagos state Lottery and Gaming Authority. From the licensing provider we can see it is treated as gambling by the state regulators. it was launched this year around August.

[Orpichukwu]

Before now I was more focused on prediction markets, which are popular, and did not even know my country had some locally licensed ones. I just searched because of this topic and noticed that we have 2sabihub and busha, which I only knew was into exchange, but I never knew they were into prediction too, and seervue and all of them are set and have the upcoming 2027 Nigeria presidential elections on their options.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

The country is strict with gambling, but if those behind the prediction market that is to come to live have some good political backing, it will be possible. Besides, Polymarket and Kalshi are also available in some places that are not all gambling friendly.

[salad daging]

Our country does not have a prediction market, everything about any bet will be banned, so it is not given any loopholes because the rules have been strict from the first.
When our president entered the betting market in Polymarket, the government immediately instructed to ban it but until now we can still access any betting market including Polymarket.
This may already be progress in a country that legalizes betting, some companies will expand there.

[YOSHIE]

Does your country have a version of prediction market, or is one coming up?

Even though gambling regulations in my country are gray, the people who gamble there are on the list of the most gamblers, regarding the prediction market site platform.

My country already has two main prediction market platforms that can be accessed by the general public, such as:
• The Polymarket prediction market platform, this prediction site works in a decentralized blockchain-based manner, the bets provided include political dynamics, international relations and also bets on leadership.
• And the second prediction market platform is called PredictAsiaX, the prediction service is exactly the same as Kalshi, users who use the prediction site can do it with crypto deposits (USDT).
Those are the two prediction market platforms we have at the moment.

[348Judah]

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

In my country, playing prediction market is not as common as gambling and that is why many will not consider this, the government does not also support anything that has to do with gambling or prediction market, so anything that we have to do with prediction market will be at our own discretion or risk, but I will also be so optimistic to see government support in things like this as long as they are going to comply to the regulations they are going to lay down for them to follow.

[Agbe]

Before now I was more focused on prediction markets, which are popular, and did not even know my country had some locally licensed ones. I just searched because of this topic and noticed that we have 2sabihub and busha, which I only knew was into exchange, but I never knew they were into prediction too, and seervue and all of them are set and have the upcoming 2027 Nigeria presidential elections on their options.

One reason why why most people are not even aware of these local prediction market is that, the influx of the more popular foreign prediction market has made it look like there are no local prediction market in the country. Just as you have said I am even just hearing about some of these local based prediction market are actually licenced, maybe I will try use these local casinos the more, I feel like using them is like promoting your own.

[robelneo]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

Yeah, in my country we already have "Signal" which was launched by Busha, a local exchange in Nigeria and is licensed by Lagos state Lottery and Gaming Authority. From the licensing provider we can see it is treated as gambling by the state regulators. it was launched this year around August.

So, do your local bettors go for local prediction markets or global ones? If there are more local versions of prediction markets, do you think the market share of global prediction markets will shrink because of preferences, because the predictions will likely be about local news and scenes?
This is very interesting if every country where gambling is legal will have its own local versions.

[DanWalker]

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

Are they just conducting beta testing or are they also testing real money trading and actual payout?

Because testing prediction accuracy using play money is not same as operating real money market.

I think for this industry to progress in your country, a clear regulatory framework is needed first. I do not think govt will grant approval simply because there is opportunity to generate tax revenue. Cause consumer protection and market integrity are also important.

I am interested to see whether regulator in your country classify these as traditional gambling. Also it is possible that they are considering separate licensing framework for it.

[KiaKia]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

Yeah, in my country we already have "Signal" which was launched by Busha, a local exchange in Nigeria and is licensed by Lagos state Lottery and Gaming Authority. From the licensing provider we can see it is treated as gambling by the state regulators. it was launched this year around August.

This is why I don't qualify myself as a gambler because how the hell this I not know this? I am in Nigeria and I don't even know that we have prediction market already? Craaazziiiiieee

Anyways, now I know, and I am not surprised that it's going to be licensed as a gambling platform because I don't see why people are trying to make predictions markets look different, they are not.

It's just that prediction markets allow bets on unnecessary real world events, many of them are so annoying but it's good for people who like prediction markets, and secondly the manipulation is very high compare to casinos.

[Localhostspeed]

One reason why why most people are not even aware of these local prediction market is that, the influx of the more popular foreign prediction market has made it look like there are no local prediction market in the country. Just as you have said I am even just hearing about some of these local based prediction market are actually licenced, maybe I will try use these local casinos the more, I feel like using them is like promoting your own.

I still think many people are not used to prediction market like casino games and sport betting. I don't know for other continents but one of the most used gambling is sports betting because of the love of bets then followed by casino games and then predictions market. The decline in prediction market is due to the fact that the event listed on some of the popular predictions market is above their understanding, some people knows nothing about what is happening in other place, it will be a waste of money to predict what you don't know.

There was one prediction market that was accepting our local currency with bank deposit, I couldn't verify if it's owned by a person fromy country but everything on the prediction were about activities happening in my country. The problem about them is they don't want to pay, they frustrate players after winning and that's how they vanished form my timeline, maybe they turned scam I don't know.

[adultcrypto]

Prediction market is still new and not popular in many countries. This is the reason people rarely talk about them in my country except few individuals that are very active in gambling and also in social media to know the latest developments in that area. There is no localised prediction market in my country, the few people that trade on that use the international platforms. But it is just a matter of time before we have some of them come down to open operations here. I will still prefer using the global platforms because of the privacy it ensures.

[Mia Chloe]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?
I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

For now I've not really seen any that is very niche yet. Basically I think it is even one of the major reasons why some of these available bet options in the prediction market seem to be barely narrowed down. Prediction markets are heavily dependent on bet count and volumes.

If you make the premise of the bet too niche you are actually risking incoming bets volume so they just pick more of global related one or general ones.

[acroman08]

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

True, and even if they want to get a gambling license in the country, I don't think they'll be able to. I mean, if I remember correctly, PAGCOR is still not giving out new gambling licenses.

Anyway, regarding Suriph, is there an ETA on when they are going to go live? Also, since they won't be able to get a gambling license, I wonder if they are going to get an online trading license. I wouldn't be surprised if they claim that they are a trading platform and not a gambling platform.

[Joy_learns_crypto]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

Yeah, in my country we already have "Signal" which was launched by Busha, a local exchange in Nigeria and is licensed by Lagos state Lottery and Gaming Authority. From the licensing provider we can see it is treated as gambling by the state regulators. it was launched this year around August.

Launched this year in August, never heard about them, I think Nigeria was always going to put prediction sites under gambling, it's not such a big market to have a new body that regulates prediction sites.
I think signal by Busha needs to do more publicity because I know people who are interested in the prediction market but don't know that Nigeria has one. Since they are licensed in lagos does that mean they don't function outside Lagos?

[coin-investor]

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

True, and even if they want to get a gambling license in the country, I don't think they'll be able to. I mean, if I remember correctly, PAGCOR is still not giving out new gambling licenses.

That's one of the obstacles, but knowing PAGCOR, they can easily change their mind if there are orders above as a result of lobbying. PAGCOR is mandated to let money flow into the coffers, so it's going to be interesting if this materializes.

Anyway, regarding Suriph, is there an ETA on when they are going to go live? Also, since they won't be able to get a gambling license, I wonder if they are going to get an online trading license. I wouldn't be surprised if they claim that they are a trading platform and not a gambling platform.

If PAGCOR decides it's going to fall into the gambling category, if it's SEC, then it will be considered a trading platform. I don't want it to be under PAGCOR jurisdiction because of too much corruption going on in their department.

[POPOLUV]

Our country does not have a prediction market, everything about any bet will be banned, so it is not given any loopholes because the rules have been strict from the first.
When our president entered the betting market in Polymarket, the government immediately instructed to ban it but until now we can still access any betting market including Polymarket.
This may already be progress in a country that legalizes betting, some companies will expand there.

It is quite unfortunate for your country to have been ban from gambling by your federal government, and i don't know how you guys are really coping, because even as the prediction market hasn't not been so that popular in my country but the few states that are dealing on prediction market can't stay without gambling for a day and if by chance that the government of my country decide to ban betting, i strongly believe that there gamblers that will travel to another countries that gamble is acceptable, for them to stake games or if a geographic zone decides to ban gambling, gamblers will move to other states just to stake betting, that is how the level of gambling has circulated in some part of my country, so as the prediction market is becoming so global, it will soon circulate everywhere in my country.

[Sammysmart001]

Yeh Nigeria has this, but most of them don’t even know. Busha has launch Signal since August, Lagos Lottery license them.

But before this thread am not even aware, Polymarket is what everbody is aware of.

Local can win for 2027 election sha, this because we understand our own politics. If they can do publicity and pay winners quick people are going to use them.

[iv4n]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market.

Burning hot topic, and "other players" are missing a lot of revenue, so DraftKings move into prediction markets makes a lot of sense. And I think they are losing players as well... People move to prediction markets, and there is also sports betting available, so an all-in-one option for players is always better. And the numbers are saying the same:

Prediction markets rank among 2026's fastest-scaling financial categories. Combined monthly volume across Kalshi and Polymarket rose from under $5 billion in September 2025 to more than $50 billion by July 2026, then eased to $45.33 billion in August.

Source: https://www.datawallet.com/crypto/prediction-market-statistics

How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

We don't have anything similar in Serbia, at least, I don't know about anything... but that's not the surprise, we are late in everything generally.

I guess we will see something similar to what happens in the US, it will be a fight & banning in some countries, while some will accept it and regulate it.