Does your country have a version of prediction market, or is one coming up?

[Saint-loup]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

Thank you very much for this hot (local) news I wasn't aware local prediction markets were about to be launched in some countries TBH. I guess most markets will deal with local events. Do you know if those platforms will be opened to foreigners? And if they will ask for KYC or not? Do you know if they will accept cryptos or only cash? In my country there was a quite old one but the platform was very slow and people couldn't bet money or cryptos there but only virtual points. The best players could get some gifts and gift cards though. The interest was therefore limited and not very attractive unfortunately.

[Alphakilo]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

Thank you very much for this hot (local) news I wasn't aware local prediction markets were about to be launched in some countries TBH. I guess most markets will deal with local events. Do you know if those platforms will be opened to foreigners? And if they will ask for KYC or not? Do you know if they will accept cryptos or only cash? In my country there was a quite old one but the platform was very slow and people couldn't bet money or cryptos there but only virtual points. The best players could get some gifts and gift cards though. The interest was therefore limited and not very attractive unfortunately.

Am yet to see any such development in my country nor know if any one is taking shape yet, but one thing I know is that local platforms are playing it safe and don't want to draw so much attention to themselves because definitely the government would and must get taxes and revenue from them and it might not be easy because the local platforms would know they might just lose a lot of customers mostly in this country where insider information and corruption would bind up very well to make people a lot of funds and put a lot of these local platforms out of business if they fail to integrate predictions market into their platform.

[Churchillvv]

With my country system if this gets to be possible it’s really going to be very interesting I will be a big participant especially when it cones to politics but not sure it’s going to be considered anytime soon, most of the betting companies are still struggling to pull out a good audience or users so prediction market which is not well known in a large scale here will likely not move the people except a huge funds is used for advertisement using influencer.

[alani123]

Let's face it, if someone is looking to participate in prediction market activity, liquidity is the best feature they could ask for. This is the sole advsntsge of prediction markets Vs book making. Being able to enter and exit positions as if you're trading.

Even if there was an authorised prediction market in my country specifically I would avoid it because nowdays poly market has all the liquidity. Even Kalshi in spite of all its advertising isn't a close second.

Even people where poly market is banned tend to use it with a VPN. The restrictions can't really be applied to crypto and won't apply until poly market itself is bothered to apply actual KYC.

[AVE5]

I think these are not yet fully launched, and I've been looking for their licenses but I cannot find them online. So it's safe to say that in the Philippines we still don't have a properly regulated prediction market. Because if other countries are already becoming stricter with regulations due to possible insider information or manipulation of results then I think without the government establishing clear rules, operators should not be allowed to offer these services yet.

For sure it's undeniable with the claims about insider's having means of manipulating the market either as direct beneficiary or they sells inside information to outsiders or relatives with the intention not to be caught of their cheating.
So you're right and thorough investigations has to be made before government can issue their operational licenses to any proposed industry.
It takes reputable operators to preserve clean services in the market without having to employ cheats and operators that are not qualified with the requirements should not be licensed.

[Smack That Ace]

How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one?

I have not yet seen any local initiative in this sector in Pakistan. Zero! In real life, we're all forced to use international grey market or other crypto casino, no lie.

and how did your regulator classify it?

In my country, under the Prevention of Gambling Act and Securities and Exchange Ordinance, any form of betting or prediction contract is classified outright as illegal gambling.

So, if anyone even dare to launch any beta version of local prediction market in here, SBP and SECP will shut it down completely on day one and throw the founder in jail, LMAO!

[Darker45]

I don't think the country has strict regulations. If it has, implementation is another story. But the surest way to launch any platform is to show that you're willing to be generous to government officials. Compliant or not, you'd get your permit right away.

Anyway, I'm not excited about this. The country seems to have as many gambling platforms as residents. Additional ways for people to bet won't be a great development. This is just my 2 cents, though.

[Hispo]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

 

I am from Venezuela.
Here we don't have any local equivalent to prediction markets, in general people here just prefer to use international platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Our national currency is simply too week and unstable for people to use it to bet in mid-term and long-term markets, like those which are offered on Polymarket.

It makes sense there are new providers in Asia, since there are a lot of bettors and gamblers in that continent when it is compared to Latin America.

I assume regulation in Asia will be laxer than those regulations in Europe and North America.

[fullfitlarry]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

I thought we have been discussing about this potential in our local board. But it seems that someone might have a good idea for us Filipinos. Nevertheless, it will have to go to a lot of humps and bumps in our country as we all know that we have a strict regulators.

Although if they spoke to the right people, ehem, corruption, they might have started this whole new trend in our country. As far if I'm going to bet on it if it's been legalized, absolutely, as I will try this platform catering to us.

[Akaenyi]

I think these are not yet fully launched, and I've been looking for their licenses but I cannot find them online. So it's safe to say that in the Philippines we still don't have a properly regulated prediction market. Because if other countries are already becoming stricter with regulations due to possible insider information or manipulation of results then I think without the government establishing clear rules, operators should not be allowed to offer these services yet.

For sure it's undeniable with the claims about insider's having means of manipulating the market either as direct beneficiary or they sells inside information to outsiders or relatives with the intention not to be caught of their cheating.
So you're right and thorough investigations has to be made before government can issue their operational licenses to any proposed industry.
It takes reputable operators to preserve clean services in the market without having to employ cheats and operators that are not qualified with the requirements should not be licensed.

What you both mentioned are concerns about the prediction market and why some governments can be hesitant in issuing licences to prediction sites that wants to operate in their countries, indeed cases of insider trading is a dent on the prediction market. But despite this lapses the market is still growing rapidly, we can see exchanges and recently a casino which is DraftKings, have entered the prediction market. I learnt recently that Nigeria, now have prediction market, some local exchanges are now into prediction market but I don't know how far our government is regulating them but if they are not licenced in anyway I don't think that they will be allowed to operate in the country.

[cryptoaddictchie]

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

It seems I first heard these two platforms here OP, thanks for the information. But crypto affiliated users for prediction market will likely to pick those international one like Polymarket and some rising platform that are popular on X. Me as a filipino wouldnt definitely choose or use either of these and much preferably using international one cause we know how strict our country on crypto related site like crypto casinos being restricted.

But if those two are willing to put up permits and undee the table negotiations with the Government then its up them. But Im wondering where they would clasify this one? As gambling site or not since many debates here in the forum about prediction market isnt gambling casino.

[Futurexxx]

Yeah, in my country we already have "Signal" which was launched by Busha, a local exchange in Nigeria and is licensed by Lagos state Lottery and Gaming Authority. From the licensing provider we can see it is treated as gambling by the state regulators. it was launched this year around August.

I have heard of Signal on few occasions, but I have not make use of it or even think of using it because am not a big fan of prediction market. Although since it's our local prediction market, some folks will not be too confident on making use of it to gamble yet, untill it they have built more name for themselves, and I guess it's one of the reasons I have not even made any moves to gamble with it, even after hearing about it a few weeks back, but regardless of that, if their service is actually good, in due time gamblers will start trooping in, and be making use of the platform to gamble.

[Die_empty]

My country has 5 five  different local prediction market, I didn't know until this year but what I understand is that some of the company were not formally offering prediction market but they just recently start offering it probably because of how there have been a boom in prediction market. I have not used any of those company and won't want to mention their name since I am not doing ads for them. My country does not regulate this companies as a traditional financial market for investment but rather they classified it as a gaming activity company. If gambling is actually legal in your country, they should allow those prediction market to launch.

It is common to see different advertisements by various gambling sites. But I have never seen any that promote prediction markets. I am indeed surprised to see many of my countrymen mention some prediction market platforms existing in my country. Maybe I would check some of them out in my spare time.

For sure it's undeniable with the claims about insider's having means of manipulating the market either as direct beneficiary or they sells inside information to outsiders or relatives with the intention not to be caught of their cheating.
So you're right and thorough investigations has to be made before government can issue their operational licenses to any proposed industry.
It takes reputable operators to preserve clean services in the market without having to employ cheats and operators that are not qualified with the requirements should not be licensed.

The problem is not just insider betting, but some major prediction market service providers don't want to be regulated as gambling platforms. The government wants them to be under gambling laws so that they would pay for licenses and remit taxes accordingly. But they don't want that; this is why they are under intense scrutiny by the government.

[Mallampue]

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

Isn't it possible for both if in your country gambling can still develop as long as there is government regulation?

The development of the prediction market today certainly takes a lot of attention because of the hype that is very fast so it could be that this is also one of the conditions glimpsed by your country especially for now your country is one of the countries that has a slightly friendly nature to gambling because of its legality even though there are many regulations in it.
With the local prediction market it could be that this increases the 2 options that you said before because the state will definitely try to use regulation as an excuse, in addition to that the initial purpose is of course tax because although for now the name is prediction market but with its current characteristics for sure the government will categorize this as gambling so the tax looks much clearer.

[davis196]

Are you talking about a government-owned prediction market? No, my country would never launch gambling platforms, that are owned and managed by the state. 2 months ago, a licensed sports betting operator in my country named Inbet has partnered with a company called Predikto Systems to launch its own proprietary events-based offer. This is the first prediction market in my country, which I'm familiar with. AFAIK, the authorities where I live have no problem licensing prediction markets, but I don't get the point of launching local prediction markets. What would such gambling products offer, that hasn't already been offered by the big names in the industry(like Polymarket and Kalshi)?

[WhoYouCantKill]

For sure it's undeniable with the claims about insider's having means of manipulating the market either as direct beneficiary or they sells inside information to outsiders or relatives with the intention not to be caught of their cheating.
So you're right and thorough investigations has to be made before government can issue their operational licenses to any proposed industry.
It takes reputable operators to preserve clean services in the market without having to employ cheats and operators that are not qualified with the requirements should not be licensed.

More reason why I believe licensing should actually involve more than just checking whether a company has actually been able to meet the basic requirements. It’s equally crucial for regulators to also keep an eye on them even after they’ve been approved to see how their operations are going, because we can’t just assume that a company wouldn’t still have the issue of insider abuse simply because they’ve be licensed. And if that continues, it wouldn’t just be that company that would be affected but they’ll eventually lose confidence and trust in the whole market.

[TopTort777]

Nope, my country does not have a version of prediction market and I think it will never has. Our gambling market isnt most developer and is highly regulated. In fact, only casinos with local license are allowed to operate. This means I should not be able to open any online casinos that has different than local domain. Gambling regulation authorities are working bad or strange, as I can gamble in any casino, but only in limited casinos I can open sports betting section. I think it will pass a century when we will have local prediction market if things are so slow and working bad

[Abdul Sami786]

So far, it has not been explained in my country, but I know that betting is definitely necessary, but in terms of market predictions, there is usually talk of gold and silver. If the ban on these things is lifted in our country, people in our country will also start going in this direction. As far as I know, when the government allows these things to be done in general, then prediction work will also start in our country. Although the number of such people is small in our country, due to which the people who do such things here will not be so interested. But those who have it, they go to other sites to fulfill their passion and earn profit and loss. I have a passion for prediction, but I keep it to myself, otherwise I go to bet on something.

[knowngunman]

There was one prediction market that was accepting our local currency with bank deposit, I couldn't verify if it's owned by a person fromy country but everything on the prediction were about activities happening in my country. The problem about them is they don't want to pay, they frustrate players after winning and that's how they vanished form my timeline, maybe they turned scam I don't know.

At first, I assume you're referring to Bayse.market prediction market because your description matches what they offer. They accept deposit and withdrawals on naira and crypto as well. This one is owned and built by Trence Technologies Inc. It's a Nigeria company with its parent entity in US. Most of the events they offer is centred on Nigeria and Africa at large. Maybe they are not the one you're talking about since you said they had problem paying their users and probably a scam platform because the Bayse.market is still functioning and operational. They are offering events on the upcoming election in Nigeria at the moment.