A fixed rule, run on every completed cycle — and the next entry is 17 days awayI keep a daily-close BTC/USD archive back to July 2011 and apply one rule, no indicators and no discretion: buy exactly 500 calendar days before a halving, sell exactly 500 days after it.
Block 1,050,000 puts the next halving around April 2028, so the next entry is
November 29, 2026 on the live block-height estimate (an Apr 13, 2028 halving projects to Nov 30 — same rule, one day apart).
What the rule actually did, four completed windows (daily close, USD):2012 halving — entry 2011-07-17 @ $14.07 → exit 2014-04-12 @ $420.66 = 29.90x (+2,890%)
lowest close vs entry: -83.65% (2011-11-22 @ $2.30); 491 of the 501 days before the halving closed below the entry price
2016 — entry 2015-02-25 @ $237.38 → exit 2017-11-21 @ $8,114.13 = 34.18x (+3,318%)
lowest close vs entry: -11.49% (2015-08-24); 92 days below entry
2020 — entry 2018-12-28 @ $3,854.42 → exit 2021-09-23 @ $44,980.90 = 11.67x (+1,067%)
lowest close vs entry: -11.94% (2019-02-07); 56 days below entry
2024 — entry 2022-12-07 @ $16,851.30 → exit 2025-09-02 @ $111,190.18 = 6.60x (+560%)
lowest close vs entry: -2.54% (2022-12-19); 18 days below entry
Median low vs entry -11.7%, median time from entry to that low 84.5 days. 4 of 4 windows closed below the entry price before the halving arrived, and all 4 finished far above it. Intraday lows were deeper than close-to-close shows.
Is 500 just a round number? Exit fixed at T+500, entry moved up to +/-120 days:
-120d: worse in 3/3 windows, median -32.5% vs the rule
-90d: worse 3/3, -35.6%
-60d: worse 3/3, -24.5%
-30d: worse 3/3, -12.5%
+30d: mixed (2 better, 2 worse), median +3.9%
+60d: better 3/4, median +4.9%
+90d: worse 3/4, -2.2%
+120d: worse 3/4, -14.4%
Entering earlier than the rule was worse every time it could be measured. Entering later was roughly neutral on the exit multiple but spends more days underwater.
Full table, method and the per-window drawdown record:
btc500.net/bitcoin-500-day-cycleSame numbers as JSON, free to reuse:
btc500.net/data/500-day-cycles.jsonWhat happens next: on Nov 29, 2026 the rule opens a public $10,000 paper buy, tracked daily to the exit (T+500, currently around Aug 2029). It is a live record, not a forecast — if it sits underwater for months, that stays up too.
Caveats: four windows is a small sample, daily closes only (not intraday), and none of this is financial advice.
If you think 500 is the wrong number, say which one and I will run it and post the table.
