Most of us have paid for, or at least followed, a Telegram signal channel. I wanted to know whether the calls are early or late, so I matched every long/short call from a few dozen channels (June to November, 22,632 calls after removing illiquid coins) against 1-minute Binance futures prices.
What happened around the average call:
- In the hour BEFORE it was posted, the coin had already moved 1.87% in the call's direction.
- In the 5 minutes before the post: 0.30%.
- In the 15 minutes AFTER the post: 0.05%. The median was zero.
- Taker fees plus a small spread cost about 0.157% round trip.
So the push a follower is meant to ride is about a third of what it costs to trade it.
I wrote the rule down before running it: enter 60 seconds after the call lands, hold 15 minutes. It lost money in every month tested and for each of the six biggest channels. Betting against the calls lost even more. The channels are not moving the price; they post what is already running.
The longer-term picture is not better. Held for 72 hours after fees, none of the 35 channels we track clears a bar that accounts for luck. Their screenshots are real: on one channel, 19% of calls touched +60% at some point, yet its average call lost 3.65% after fees. The average call is what matters.
Full method and numbers:
https://www.sentineltradingbots.online/findings/telegram-signals-arrive-lateIf you want to check a channel you follow, you can type its public name here and it scores the last 90 days of calls the same way (free):
https://www.sentineltradingbots.online/scorecard/auditHappy to run other cuts of the data if people have questions.
