Anthropic Pre-IPO Trading Volume, Is there really any real demand?

As we know there is plenty of excitement around Anthropic's upcoming IPO, however how much of a good sign is the pre-IPO trading volume?

According to reuters, Vanda Research estimate that based on previous IPO activity and trading volume on perpetual futures pre-IPO, Anthropic could see $250 million of net retail inflows.

Whilst this is helpful to look at, it does not indicate there will be real demand for the IPO.

Perpetual contracts are used to speculate on price movement without holding any shares of the company. High volumes could be down to short term speculation, leverage, hedging and churning. It does not necessarily mean they are planning on holding Anthropic shares for years.

There are a number of platforms that offer perpetuals on Anthropic, these include Bitget, Gate, Binance, OKX, Bybit and Hyperliquid. Bitget also offer trading in ANTHROPICUSDT perpetuals and IPO subscription. However, whilst you get rANT from the subscription, there are no direct Anthropic shares.

This means there are various ways to express your view on the market, however there are different risks involved. Derivatives have funding, leverage and liquidation issues whereas IPO has uncertainty with allocations and potential underperformance on listing price.

I think what is more important to investors is whether Anthropic can justify their public valuation through growth of their business, adoption of Claude, competition and cost of AI infrastructure.

Do you think pre-IPO trading volume on perpetuals is an indication of future demand for the IPO or is it just short term speculation?

rANT has no voting rights and dividends. This is not financial advice.