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Author Topic: New Contest: Guess the date for when we hit $2 again!  (Read 2875 times)
cypherdoc
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December 30, 2011, 11:54:21 PM
 #41

Never

Why are we the only ones saying this... seriously.  I can't believe people really think it'll go back to $2 after all that's happened.

i truly think that Bitcoinica's short selling capabilities introduced in September caused an overshoot to the downside below the level of profitability for miners.  

we had a classic double bottom or triple bottom depending on how you read the charts.

the strong rebound off $2 is telling you (or me at least) we will never go back there.

This, and the fact that there weren't many bids. People didn't know when it would stop, so the $$$ in Gox just sat on the sidelines, which in turn allowed the price to fall farther.

yes, a spiral down.  question is; did all the short selling cause the bids to dry up?
Bitcoin mining is now a specialized and very risky industry, just like gold mining. Amateur miners are unlikely to make much money, and may even lose money. Bitcoin is much more than just mining, though!
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trogdorjw73
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December 31, 2011, 12:16:55 AM
 #42

Never

Why are we the only ones saying this... seriously.  I can't believe people really think it'll go back to $2 after all that's happened.

i truly think that Bitcoinica's short selling capabilities introduced in September caused an overshoot to the downside below the level of profitability for miners. 

we had a classic double bottom or triple bottom depending on how you read the charts.

the strong rebound off $2 is telling you (or me at least) we will never go back there.

This, and the fact that there weren't many bids. People didn't know when it would stop, so the $$$ in Gox just sat on the sidelines, which in turn allowed the price to fall farther.

yes, a spiral down.  question is; did all the short selling cause the bids to dry up?
Here's the problem with the BTC value: it's driven mostly by geeks with a few large holders of BTC. If any of those get spooked and decide to start selling, it can result in a panic sell that leaves us back in the $2 range. I don't see $2 happening any time soon, but then I also didn't see $4+ coming again, certainly not before 2012. It happened once, and all it will take is a similar set of circumstances and it can (and probably will -- several times) happen again.

People talk about fundamentals and such, but the people I know who are really into technology all think Bitcoin is a joke. "Okay, cool, a cryptocurrency" they say, "but what can I do with it?" As someone else pointed out in a different thread, the people putting money into Bitcoin are just transferring their money to the miners who are selling it off to pay for hardware/electricity. The idea that BTC is somehow going to become mainstream, or take over regular currencies, or whatever... no, I just don't see it. My feeling based on recent history is that BTC value is tied pretty closely to fiat values and the stock market. When those do well, BTC will trend up; if they do poorly, it goes down. Sure, there are exceptions, but I think there are people waiting for the new year before they do any serious investing -- they don't want to blow a bonus right at the end of the year, so they play it conservative, in stocks as well as in BTC.

I expect one way or the other, things will get a little chaotic around Jan 2. Are we going up or down, that's the real question. I'm inclined to say down. But the great thing is that if you naysayers are right, I don't have to pay out! ;-)

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December 31, 2011, 12:57:51 AM
 #43

Never

Why are we the only ones saying this... seriously.  I can't believe people really think it'll go back to $2 after all that's happened.

i truly think that Bitcoinica's short selling capabilities introduced in September caused an overshoot to the downside below the level of profitability for miners.  

we had a classic double bottom or triple bottom depending on how you read the charts.

the strong rebound off $2 is telling you (or me at least) we will never go back there.

This, and the fact that there weren't many bids. People didn't know when it would stop, so the $$$ in Gox just sat on the sidelines, which in turn allowed the price to fall farther.

yes, a spiral down.  question is; did all the short selling cause the bids to dry up?
Here's the problem with the BTC value: it's driven mostly by geeks with a few large holders of BTC. If any of those get spooked and decide to start selling, it can result in a panic sell that leaves us back in the $2 range. I don't see $2 happening any time soon, but then I also didn't see $4+ coming again, certainly not before 2012. It happened once, and all it will take is a similar set of circumstances and it can (and probably will -- several times) happen again.

People talk about fundamentals and such, but the people I know who are really into technology all think Bitcoin is a joke. "Okay, cool, a cryptocurrency" they say, "but what can I do with it?" As someone else pointed out in a different thread, the people putting money into Bitcoin are just transferring their money to the miners who are selling it off to pay for hardware/electricity. The idea that BTC is somehow going to become mainstream, or take over regular currencies, or whatever... no, I just don't see it. My feeling based on recent history is that BTC value is tied pretty closely to fiat values and the stock market. When those do well, BTC will trend up; if they do poorly, it goes down. Sure, there are exceptions, but I think there are people waiting for the new year before they do any serious investing -- they don't want to blow a bonus right at the end of the year, so they play it conservative, in stocks as well as in BTC.

I expect one way or the other, things will get a little chaotic around Jan 2. Are we going up or down, that's the real question. I'm inclined to say down. But the great thing is that if you naysayers are right, I don't have to pay out! ;-)


you hit it right on the head; its the tech guys who don't know anything about economics who think Bitcoin is a joke.  they don't appreciate what they've invented.

successful boomers like me who are non-tech who've studied Austrian economics for many years and bought gold and silver back in 2005 are the ones who are going to drive this rocket ship up as more widespread appreciation of the technology becomes apparent.  it took me only one weekend to understand what i was looking at and i started selling my gold and silver in the Spring and top ticked the market perfectly.  now you've got other pm guys like Max Keiser and Robert Prechter and his son, Elliott all over this thing.  silver bull David Morgan follows my blog on Twitter and he is a long term silver bull analyst.  

this is slipping away from you right under your nose.
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December 31, 2011, 01:09:13 AM
 #44

Never

Why are we the only ones saying this... seriously.  I can't believe people really think it'll go back to $2 after all that's happened.

i truly think that Bitcoinica's short selling capabilities introduced in September caused an overshoot to the downside below the level of profitability for miners.  

we had a classic double bottom or triple bottom depending on how you read the charts.

the strong rebound off $2 is telling you (or me at least) we will never go back there.

This, and the fact that there weren't many bids. People didn't know when it would stop, so the $$$ in Gox just sat on the sidelines, which in turn allowed the price to fall farther.

yes, a spiral down.  question is; did all the short selling cause the bids to dry up?
Here's the problem with the BTC value: it's driven mostly by geeks with a few large holders of BTC. If any of those get spooked and decide to start selling, it can result in a panic sell that leaves us back in the $2 range. I don't see $2 happening any time soon, but then I also didn't see $4+ coming again, certainly not before 2012. It happened once, and all it will take is a similar set of circumstances and it can (and probably will -- several times) happen again.

People talk about fundamentals and such, but the people I know who are really into technology all think Bitcoin is a joke. "Okay, cool, a cryptocurrency" they say, "but what can I do with it?" As someone else pointed out in a different thread, the people putting money into Bitcoin are just transferring their money to the miners who are selling it off to pay for hardware/electricity. The idea that BTC is somehow going to become mainstream, or take over regular currencies, or whatever... no, I just don't see it. My feeling based on recent history is that BTC value is tied pretty closely to fiat values and the stock market. When those do well, BTC will trend up; if they do poorly, it goes down. Sure, there are exceptions, but I think there are people waiting for the new year before they do any serious investing -- they don't want to blow a bonus right at the end of the year, so they play it conservative, in stocks as well as in BTC.

I expect one way or the other, things will get a little chaotic around Jan 2. Are we going up or down, that's the real question. I'm inclined to say down. But the great thing is that if you naysayers are right, I don't have to pay out! ;-)


you hit it right on the head; its the tech guys who don't know anything about economics who think Bitcoin is a joke.  they don't appreciate what they've invented.

successful boomers like me who are non-tech who've studied Austrian economics for many years and bought gold and silver back in 2005 are the ones who are going to drive this rocket ship up as more widespread appreciation of the technology becomes apparent.  it took me only one weekend to understand what i was looking at and i started selling my gold and silver in the Spring and top ticked the market perfectly.  now you've got other pm guys like Max Keiser and Robert Prechter and his son, BrightAnarchist all over this thing.  silver bull David Morgan follows my blog on Twitter and he is a long term silver bull analyst.  

this is slipping away from you right under your nose.

+1; The way I'm seeing it, bitcoin (and possibly other cryptocurrencies) will have money poured into it at a rate that is inversely proportional to the rate at which stocks and other traditional assets fail... And that failure is already happening.  There will be no other alternative for investment.

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trogdorjw73
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December 31, 2011, 01:17:23 AM
 #45

Never

Why are we the only ones saying this... seriously.  I can't believe people really think it'll go back to $2 after all that's happened.

i truly think that Bitcoinica's short selling capabilities introduced in September caused an overshoot to the downside below the level of profitability for miners.  

we had a classic double bottom or triple bottom depending on how you read the charts.

the strong rebound off $2 is telling you (or me at least) we will never go back there.

This, and the fact that there weren't many bids. People didn't know when it would stop, so the $$$ in Gox just sat on the sidelines, which in turn allowed the price to fall farther.

yes, a spiral down.  question is; did all the short selling cause the bids to dry up?
Here's the problem with the BTC value: it's driven mostly by geeks with a few large holders of BTC. If any of those get spooked and decide to start selling, it can result in a panic sell that leaves us back in the $2 range. I don't see $2 happening any time soon, but then I also didn't see $4+ coming again, certainly not before 2012. It happened once, and all it will take is a similar set of circumstances and it can (and probably will -- several times) happen again.

People talk about fundamentals and such, but the people I know who are really into technology all think Bitcoin is a joke. "Okay, cool, a cryptocurrency" they say, "but what can I do with it?" As someone else pointed out in a different thread, the people putting money into Bitcoin are just transferring their money to the miners who are selling it off to pay for hardware/electricity. The idea that BTC is somehow going to become mainstream, or take over regular currencies, or whatever... no, I just don't see it. My feeling based on recent history is that BTC value is tied pretty closely to fiat values and the stock market. When those do well, BTC will trend up; if they do poorly, it goes down. Sure, there are exceptions, but I think there are people waiting for the new year before they do any serious investing -- they don't want to blow a bonus right at the end of the year, so they play it conservative, in stocks as well as in BTC.

I expect one way or the other, things will get a little chaotic around Jan 2. Are we going up or down, that's the real question. I'm inclined to say down. But the great thing is that if you naysayers are right, I don't have to pay out! ;-)


you hit it right on the head; its the tech guys who don't know anything about economics who think Bitcoin is a joke.  they don't appreciate what they've invented.

successful boomers like me who are non-tech who've studied Austrian economics for many years and bought gold and silver back in 2005 are the ones who are going to drive this rocket ship up as more widespread appreciation of the technology becomes apparent.  it took me only one weekend to understand what i was looking at and i started selling my gold and silver in the Spring and top ticked the market perfectly.  now you've got other pm guys like Max Keiser and Robert Prechter and his son, BrightAnarchist all over this thing.  silver bull David Morgan follows my blog on Twitter and he is a long term silver bull analyst.  

this is slipping away from you right under your nose.

+1; The way I'm seeing it, bitcoin (and possibly other cryptocurrencies) will have money poured into it at a rate that is inversely proportional to the rate at which stocks and other traditional assets fail... And that failure is already happening.  There will be no other alternative for investment.
If stocks and other assets fail, why should Bitcoin be safe? It's not like you can actually store your Bitcoins separate from the network; if that were ever compromised, your digital currency is worth less than fiat, because at least you can burn fiat. Bitcoin seems more like the pre-2001 dot com bubble, and at some point it's likely to burst until/unless it's backed up by more than geeks with computers and Internet access. Just my two cents, naturally.

cypherdoc
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December 31, 2011, 01:28:19 AM
 #46

Never

Why are we the only ones saying this... seriously.  I can't believe people really think it'll go back to $2 after all that's happened.

i truly think that Bitcoinica's short selling capabilities introduced in September caused an overshoot to the downside below the level of profitability for miners.  

we had a classic double bottom or triple bottom depending on how you read the charts.

the strong rebound off $2 is telling you (or me at least) we will never go back there.

This, and the fact that there weren't many bids. People didn't know when it would stop, so the $$$ in Gox just sat on the sidelines, which in turn allowed the price to fall farther.

yes, a spiral down.  question is; did all the short selling cause the bids to dry up?
Here's the problem with the BTC value: it's driven mostly by geeks with a few large holders of BTC. If any of those get spooked and decide to start selling, it can result in a panic sell that leaves us back in the $2 range. I don't see $2 happening any time soon, but then I also didn't see $4+ coming again, certainly not before 2012. It happened once, and all it will take is a similar set of circumstances and it can (and probably will -- several times) happen again.

People talk about fundamentals and such, but the people I know who are really into technology all think Bitcoin is a joke. "Okay, cool, a cryptocurrency" they say, "but what can I do with it?" As someone else pointed out in a different thread, the people putting money into Bitcoin are just transferring their money to the miners who are selling it off to pay for hardware/electricity. The idea that BTC is somehow going to become mainstream, or take over regular currencies, or whatever... no, I just don't see it. My feeling based on recent history is that BTC value is tied pretty closely to fiat values and the stock market. When those do well, BTC will trend up; if they do poorly, it goes down. Sure, there are exceptions, but I think there are people waiting for the new year before they do any serious investing -- they don't want to blow a bonus right at the end of the year, so they play it conservative, in stocks as well as in BTC.

I expect one way or the other, things will get a little chaotic around Jan 2. Are we going up or down, that's the real question. I'm inclined to say down. But the great thing is that if you naysayers are right, I don't have to pay out! ;-)


you hit it right on the head; its the tech guys who don't know anything about economics who think Bitcoin is a joke.  they don't appreciate what they've invented.

successful boomers like me who are non-tech who've studied Austrian economics for many years and bought gold and silver back in 2005 are the ones who are going to drive this rocket ship up as more widespread appreciation of the technology becomes apparent.  it took me only one weekend to understand what i was looking at and i started selling my gold and silver in the Spring and top ticked the market perfectly.  now you've got other pm guys like Max Keiser and Robert Prechter and his son, BrightAnarchist all over this thing.  silver bull David Morgan follows my blog on Twitter and he is a long term silver bull analyst.  

this is slipping away from you right under your nose.

+1; The way I'm seeing it, bitcoin (and possibly other cryptocurrencies) will have money poured into it at a rate that is inversely proportional to the rate at which stocks and other traditional assets fail... And that failure is already happening.  There will be no other alternative for investment.
If stocks and other assets fail, why should Bitcoin be safe? It's not like you can actually store your Bitcoins separate from the network; if that were ever compromised, your digital currency is worth less than fiat, because at least you can burn fiat. Bitcoin seems more like the pre-2001 dot com bubble, and at some point it's likely to burst until/unless it's backed up by more than geeks with computers and Internet access. Just my two cents, naturally.

well thats just it.  the Internet will never be compromised. after all, it was built to withstand nuclear attacks was it not?  and look how successful Egypt was at shutting down its Internet.  the banksters were the ones crying Uncle while it was down.  they couldn't shovel their money around behind their citizens backs w/o it.

Bitcoin is the newest, most undervalued asset out there and the way i see it, the most protected from confiscation and inflation.
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January 01, 2012, 11:27:35 AM
 #47

Why are we the only ones saying this... seriously.  I can't believe people really think it'll go back to $2 after all that's happened.

After all what that's happened?  How have the fundamentals changed?

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January 01, 2012, 12:16:57 PM
 #48

Quote
People talk about fundamentals and such, but the people I know who are really into technology all think Bitcoin is a joke. "Okay, cool, a cryptocurrency" they say, "but what can I do with it?" As someone else pointed out in a different thread, the people putting money into Bitcoin are just transferring their money to the miners who are selling it off to pay for hardware/electricity.

I know those kind of tech people too.

Who will need gold to save money when you can have Bitcoins?
They are simply much better.







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January 01, 2012, 12:28:10 PM
 #49


well thats just it.  the Internet will never be compromised. after all, it was built to withstand nuclear attacks was it not?  and look how successful Egypt was at shutting down its Internet.  the banksters were the ones crying Uncle while it was down.  they couldn't shovel their money around behind their citizens backs w/o it.

Bitcoin is the newest, most undervalued asset out there and the way i see it, the most protected from confiscation and inflation.

That's some funny stuff man, I'll continue the story:

And then Pollyanna resumed schtupping herself with Aunt Polly's rolling pin. "What a wonderful way to start the new year" she thought, "Soon I will have enough bitcoins for a shiny new Trojan Twister, and won't the cookies be so much better for that?".

"Bitcoins are for the most part as useless as they ever were."
 - Edward50
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