I posted these charts in another thread, but thought I might as well go ahead and create a new home for them. I have been collecting data on the order book depth on MtGox, in addition to actual trading activity, since around the 14th of December and I have created a few historical charts that might be of interest to some of the traders here. I am not trying to spread FUD, I am trying to provide data. Make of it what you will.
This graph shows the total bitcoin supply in red, adjusted to fit on the scale of the mtgox supply figures in blue. This chart shows a significant divergence between the total available supply, and the total actual supply visible on mtgox's order books. As you can see, the gap has just today started to close. What this indicates to me is that a significant amount of the mined coins have been held over the past few weeks, and a correction is overdue... but on it's way.
These charts show the historical total aggregate demand in dollars as well as the total mtgox supply.
These charts show the daily change in both supply (figures in btc) and demand (figures in $).Trade volume activity (collected since the 21st):
21/12/2011 15:53 - Bid (buy) Volume: $92607, Ask (sell) Volume: $108854 => Net $16,247 sell
22/12/2011 23:58 - Bid (buy) Volume: $83754, Ask (sell) Volume: $188171 => Net $104,417 sell
24/12/2011 11:52 - Bid (buy) Volume: $124414, Ask (sell) Volume: $159448 => Net $35,034 sell
25/12/2011 16:00 - Bid (buy) Volume: $116765, Ask (sell) Volume: $143122 => Net $26,357 sell
26/12/2011 13:30 - Bid (buy) Volume: $134398, Ask (sell) Volume: $188173 => Net $53,775 sell
27/12/2011 23:59 - Bid (buy) Volume: $166066, Ask (sell) Volume: $193020 => Net $26,954 sell
28/12/2011 05:45 - Bid (buy) Volume: $174779, Ask (sell) Volume: $198527 => Net $23,748 sell
29/12/2011 21:20 - Bid (buy) Volume: $203902, Ask (sell) Volume: $228877 => Net $24,975 sell
30/12/2011 23:59 - Bid (buy) Volume: $203871, Ask (sell) Volume: $334398 => Net $130,527 sell
From the data above, you can see that over the past 10 days there has been a net selling activity of $442,034, yet somehow the price has stayed at roughly the same level. There has not been one single day where the buy volume in dollars has exceeded the selling volume in dollars.
To me, this is a stark indication of profit taking. In addition, there is significant market manipulation going on keeping the price artificially afloat in order to take more and more money from buyers. Despite all the selling, it was all followed by low volume rebuys occurring right after the sales in order for the big players to 'cover their tracks' if you will.
This stinks of an impending fall back to lower price levels, because you can only mislead bulls for so long before they either run out of money or rationality kicks back in.
Take this data for what you will, but I think it speaks for itself. I have no idea what way the price is going to go right now, but considering the fact that the MCAD is showing 39 days of positive price divergence, and the RSI has been >70 for 12 days, I know which direction I am betting on.
Make sure you get yourself onto the right side of the market soon.