Can anyone show me calculation how cloud mining can be profitable?

[crazyivan]

Ok, have been following these cloud mining threads advertising different cloud mining services. Could anyone pls show me some kind of calculation how this can be profitable and how can I get my ROI back?
Whenever I use available calculators I end up paying 7 BTC for 1 TB which gets me back 6 BTC in a year assuming 40% difficulty increase per month, which is an overage over the last few months. I am prepared only to pay for the service in BTC, any kind of fiat payments are not acceptable ATM.

So, what am I missing here, why is math faulty?

[oztusk]

There is no realistic chance of recouping your investment with ANY cloud mining service. Youve got that much right.
I can show you calculation, but it shows a probable loss.
As to why people go for it? Go figure... wishful thinking is the commonest investors pitfall.  A lot of cloud hash service thrives on it.

[loewen.brad]

Your math isn't faulty, op. At this point, cloud mining simply isn't profitable. The only upsides to using a cloud service like cex.io are that you don't have to deal with maintenance issues (i.e. a PSU exploding), noise from cooling systems, and the large amount of heat produced by all the equipment. Don't get me wrong, those are decent selling points. But if you have the option of buying a physical rig and housing it locally you stand a much better chance to eek out some sort of profit. However, for somebody who doesn't have the kind of money they can spend on a th/s miner, cloud mining might just be the way to go. If you happen to be short on money at the time, you can buy a single gh/s (or even smaller amounts) if you want that will start mining for you as soon as you've bought it. There is no downtime while waiting for your rig to arrive from Sweden or China or wherever it was made. Some would see this as a benefit. And, with cex.io in particular, you can choose to reinvest any amount of your mined earnings at any given time, giving you more gh/s and faster earnings. When I started with cex, I originally bought around 250 mh/s. After a few days, I started reinvesting my earnings to buy more gh/s. And within about 3-4 weeks, I was up over 2 gh/s. You need to do your own cost/benefit analysis to figure out what's right for you. Don't just trust the profit calculators and what other are saying on some random forum. If you find that you have the resources to buy a physical rig and have the ability to host it locally, by all means. However, if you do a careful analysis of all the factors involved, you may just find that cloud mining is the way to go for you. If you decide you want to pursue cloud mining at all, please feel free to use my ref link when you sign up. I could use the extra gh/s.

Edit: Auuuuggggghh... apparently bitcointalk filters cex.io ref links out of their posts. So I guess I'll put it up another way.
https:// cex .io/ r/ 0/ unic0rnp0ny/ 0/    Just take out the spaces

[howzar]

YOU CAN make bitcoins from cloudmining especially on cex.io as you can resell your GHs at ANY time.

Ill PAY you if you sign up with me!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=557265.0

[Operatr]

There is no realistic chance of recouping your investment with ANY cloud mining service. Youve got that much right.
I can show you calculation, but it shows a probable loss.
As to why people go for it? Go figure... wishful thinking is the commonest investors pitfall.  A lot of cloud hash service thrives on it.

The same could be said for buying your own miner, as a lot of them have an equally high chance of never making a positive profit.

Cloud mining trades the liabilities of a farm for a higher price, because you are paying for someone else's time and energy to mine for you.

Self mining trades the higher price for all the liabilities of running your own rigs. One blown up rig can throw your profitability right out the window.

[oztusk]

YOU CAN make bitcoins from cloudmining especially on cex.io as you can resell your GHs at ANY time.

Ill PAY you if you sign up with me!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=557265.0

Absolute HORSESHIT. After you realize youve screwed yourself you can try to recover a fraction of your loss by hoping for a brain dead fool to come along..
Same for the myth of reselling used, obsolete equipment,... give me a break!

[crazyivan]

YOU CAN make bitcoins from cloudmining especially on cex.io as you can resell your GHs at ANY time.

Ill PAY you if you sign up with me!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=557265.0

Absolute HORSESHIT. After you realize youve screwed yourself you can try to recover a fraction of your loss by hoping for a brain dead fool to come along..
Same for the myth of reselling used, obsolete equipment,... give me a break!

Why would anyone buy my GHs once difficulty goes up unless I offer them at significant discount? I was talking about reaching ROI, please be realistic.

[oztusk]

it just irked me to see people mention the idea of selling an oil well after all the oil has been pumped out..
oh yeah, not to forget your question..

here's the formula ive been using. its close to the equivalent of 22% diff increase per period

1+.82+.82^2+.82^3+.82^4+.82^5+.82^6+.82^7+.82^8+.82^9+.82^10
times 14 days of coin generation. at whatever the present rate is.. i use the output of the miners i have running for this..
"489.08 Gh/s is 0.04019213 BTC per day" or .04019213÷489.08 =...  0.000082179 btc per gh per day..  so..

0.000082179*(1+.82+.82^2+.82^3+.82^4+.82^5+.82^6+.82^7+.82^8+.82^9+.82^10)=0.000405093*14 btc per gh over a 22 week period..

or 0.005671308 btc for 1 gh..
so an antminer at 180 gh would output 1.020835477 btc ... just barely paying for itself plus some pocket change, if i can run it on free electricity.
when you assume a difficulty cange, say, optimisticly 17.6470588%, take the reciprocal of 1.176470588 to get,..    .85..

then:..

1+.85+.85^2+.85^3+.85^4+.85^5+.85^6+.85^7+.85^8+.85^9+.85^10 = 5.551045042

so..  5.551045042 * 14 * 0.000082179 =  0.006386511 btc  per gh or about 1.14 btc for an antminer s1 at 180 ghs.

thse two values assume overall (mean) diff inc of 17.64% and 22%, maybe a realistic range...
so  prices per ghs higer, are probably hopeless..
some are so high that they are just blatent rip offs.

[xstr8guy]

There is no realistic chance of recouping your investment with ANY cloud mining service. Youve got that much right.
I can show you calculation, but it shows a probable loss.
As to why people go for it? Go figure... wishful thinking is the commonest investors pitfall.  A lot of cloud hash service thrives on it.

The same could be said for buying your own miner, as a lot of them have an equally high chance of never making a positive profit.

Cloud mining trades the liabilities of a farm for a higher price, because you are paying for someone else's time and energy to mine for you.

Self mining trades the higher price for all the liabilities of running your own rigs. One blown up rig can throw your profitability right out the window.

PBMining is actually cheaper than hardware right now.  So that argument has become irrelevant.

[oztusk]

There is no realistic chance of recouping your investment with ANY cloud mining service. Youve got that much right.
I can show you calculation, but it shows a probable loss.
As to why people go for it? Go figure... wishful thinking is the commonest investors pitfall.  A lot of cloud hash service thrives on it.

The same could be said for buying your own miner, as a lot of them have an equally high chance of never making a positive profit.

Cloud mining trades the liabilities of a farm for a higher price, because you are paying for someone else's time and energy to mine for you.

Self mining trades the higher price for all the liabilities of running your own rigs. One blown up rig can throw your profitability right out the window.

PBMining is actually cheaper than hardware right now.  So that argument has become irrelevant.

pb mining:                              1.152 btc per 180  ghs
bitmain s1 ant                         0.893 btc per 180  ghs

[xstr8guy]

There is no realistic chance of recouping your investment with ANY cloud mining service. Youve got that much right.
I can show you calculation, but it shows a probable loss.
As to why people go for it? Go figure... wishful thinking is the commonest investors pitfall.  A lot of cloud hash service thrives on it.

The same could be said for buying your own miner, as a lot of them have an equally high chance of never making a positive profit.

Cloud mining trades the liabilities of a farm for a higher price, because you are paying for someone else's time and energy to mine for you.

Self mining trades the higher price for all the liabilities of running your own rigs. One blown up rig can throw your profitability right out the window.

PBMining is actually cheaper than hardware right now.  So that argument has become irrelevant.

pb mining:                              1.152 btc per 180  ghs
bitmain s1 ant                         0.893 btc per 180  ghs

And you need a PSU and pay for electricity.

[oztusk]

wondering right now if i am going to get return enough to pay for the psus i had to get..   

[precrime3]

There is no realistic chance of recouping your investment with ANY cloud mining service. Youve got that much right.
I can show you calculation, but it shows a probable loss.
As to why people go for it? Go figure... wishful thinking is the commonest investors pitfall.  A lot of cloud hash service thrives on it.

The same could be said for buying your own miner, as a lot of them have an equally high chance of never making a positive profit.

Cloud mining trades the liabilities of a farm for a higher price, because you are paying for someone else's time and energy to mine for you.

Self mining trades the higher price for all the liabilities of running your own rigs. One blown up rig can throw your profitability right out the window.

PBMining is actually cheaper than hardware right now.  So that argument has become irrelevant.

pb mining:                              1.152 btc per 180  ghs
bitmain s1 ant                         0.893 btc per 180  ghs

And you need a PSU and pay for electricity.

We've already had this discussion mate in another thread Its very close, and with electricity, I believe that the advantage goes to the s1 by a VERY TINY margin, which its worth to buy from PB mining. No noise, no heat, etc.

[ChuckBuck]

You can't sell your PBmining contract after a couple months though.

That's where the Antminer wins by a large margin.  Boom, profit!   

[gentacomp]

You can't sell your PBmining contract after a couple months though.

That's where the Antminer wins by a large margin.  Boom, profit!   

And some say PBMining only have 1 year contract for their web hosting, what happen after 1 year ? Can anyone confirm ?

[precrime3]

There's up to 5 year contracts. And after time is over, I assume you can either renew contract or just walk away.

[crazyivan]

There's up to 5 year contracts. And after time is over, I assume you can either renew contract or just walk away.

What 5 years??? If you get 1TH, in 1 year time it will be worthless with this difficulty increase, not to mention years 2-5.

[precrime3]

There's up to 5 year contracts. And after time is over, I assume you can either renew contract or just walk away.

What 5 years??? If you get 1TB, in 1 year time it will be worthless with this difficulty increase, not to mention years 2-5.

Im assuming you meant TH/s, and I'm also assuming you can buy/sell extra gh/s

[oztusk]

Noise? Heat?...
the air conditioner drowns out the miners...

[Shogen]

Ok, have been following these cloud mining threads advertising different cloud mining services. Could anyone pls show me some kind of calculation how this can be profitable and how can I get my ROI back?
Whenever I use available calculators I end up paying 7 BTC for 1 TB which gets me back 6 BTC in a year assuming 40% difficulty increase per month, which is an overage over the last few months. I am prepared only to pay for the service in BTC, any kind of fiat payments are not acceptable ATM.

So, what am I missing here, why is math faulty?

Your calculation is right.
Why would they sell the hashrate if they can get more by mining themselves?