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Author Topic: Buying 200k BTC. $2/BTC  (Read 10219 times)
u2u3
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April 09, 2011, 07:31:58 AM
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Hello fellow users,

Let's assume I want to buy 200k-400k BTC in the next few months. This represents the number of Bitcoins generated by the global network in 1-2 months, and also about 1-2 months of average volume at MtGox (which indicates most miners resell everything). How do I buy by minimizing disruption of the market?

1/ MtGox's volume info includes the dark pool. Based on the known volume (~7k BTC/day) it is not large enough to avoid a price eruption.

2/ There is not enough liquidity from my viewpoint on any other markets, including the OTC market.

3/ I could invest the money in a mining farm, but I would probably need to hire someone as it seems time-consuming.

I would like to hear some of your ideas. There are many smart folks here.

Edited to fix some errors in my reasoning (thanks FreeMoney).
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Megawatt
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April 09, 2011, 08:02:10 AM
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I think you posted in the wrong forum, the right forum in my opinion would be economic or technical.
Here people do real trade.

Here is my address: 1PvQMc4tnFLwLDivh4d2fWJi4Dc9zSR1vp
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April 09, 2011, 08:03:18 AM
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On average there are 6 blocks an hour which comes to (6*24*50) = 7200/day. So you are looking at <28 days worth, not 2 years. Even this much will move the market substantially. What do you think happens if you try to buy 5% of all dollars? Or 5% of all gold? Obviously disruption. You can't even know how many coins you will want or be able to afford until you start buying. Either way it sounds like you should do some studying before you sink the millions that will be needed into this. Otoh if you have millions sitting around you should probably fix that problem pretty quickly.

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u2u3
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April 09, 2011, 08:05:49 AM
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I think you posted in the wrong forum, the right forum in my opinion would be economic or technical.
Here people do real trade.

I am offering to buy 200k BTC.
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April 09, 2011, 08:07:49 AM
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I think you posted in the wrong forum, the right forum in my opinion would be economic or technical.
Here people do real trade.

I am offering to buy 200k BTC.

Maybe you are soliciting offers, but I don't see an offer from you. What are you offering?

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u2u3
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April 09, 2011, 08:16:27 AM
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Maybe you are soliciting offers, but I don't see an offer from you. What are you offering?

MtGox only has 50k BTC for sale up to $1.3/BTC.

So let's start: who is interested to sell Bitcoins at $2/BTC? And how many?
jgarzik
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April 09, 2011, 08:43:49 AM
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Hello fellow users,

Let's assume I want to buy 200k-400k BTC in the next few months. This represents the number of Bitcoins generated by the global network in 1-2 months, and also about 1-2 months of average volume at MtGox (which indicates most miners resell everything). How do I buy by minimizing disruption of the market?

1/ MtGox's volume info includes the dark pool. Based on the known volume (~7k BTC/day) it is not large enough to avoid a price eruption.

MtGox has seen some 100k+ days.  One method is simply buying slowly from MtGox over the next few months. 400k / 90 days == 4.4k per day, something the market can absorb IMO.

But even if you double the volume, there is not going to be a huge disruption.  Yes there is a tipping point, but I wouldn't necessarily judge MtGox by the current slow period.

Quote
2/ There is not enough liquidity from my viewpoint on any other markets, including the OTC market.

Agreed, though you might try some of the manual exchangers such as nanoimogold or aurumexchange.  They probably have a stock (where "stock" is a few thousand bitcoins).

Quote
3/ I could invest the money in a mining farm, but I would probably need to hire someone as it seems time-consuming.

vladimir, mrb and BitcoinRigs offer something vaguely similar:  You pay for Ghash/sec, and they give you zero-variance BTC payouts based on the purchased hash rate + current bitcoin network difficulty.

But this is quite expensive, and you'll reach a point of diminishing returns rather quickly, much more quickly than your goal.


The bitcoins are definitely out there to be had, as the price increases.  MtGox makes life easy and should accomplish your goal over time, but I bet you can find a fair amount by canvassing various community exchangers.

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ThomasV
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April 09, 2011, 08:46:09 AM
 #8

You are doing it wrong.

If you really want to buy 200k bitcoins without moving the market, you should not disclose that information. Use MtGox dark pools, take advantage of volatility, and buy your coins progressively. If you are lucky you might get 200k for less than 1$/BTC. And if you really want to post messages on the forum, then better spread FUD about the whole bitcoin thing, and predictions of an imminent crash.

OTOH if you are bluffing and trying to move prices up, then you are doing it right. :-)

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BitcoinRigs.com
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April 09, 2011, 09:53:55 AM
 #9

How do I buy by minimizing disruption of the market?

3/ I could invest the money in a mining farm, but I would probably need to hire someone as it seems time-consuming.
Quick and easy. Lease 100 GH/s (from my company of course). The only effect on the market would be a small increase to the difficulty level. At today's difficulty, you would receive about 1240 bitcoins per day, or about 100,000 bitcoins over the next three months.

If you are serious, PM me and we can arrange a very affordable price.

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killerstorm
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April 09, 2011, 10:25:15 AM
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Let's assume I want to buy 200k-400k BTC in the next few months. ... How do I buy by minimizing disruption of the market?

That's a wrong question IMHO. If you're an investor who is looking to maximize profit you should be asking this question:
 
"If have X USD. I want to buy as much BTC as possible for this sum over course of Y months. What should I do?"

The answer is to do this trade as quietly as possible because news like this will cause short-term price spikes which gets into your profit.

Try OTC trading and dark pools. Avoid public orders.

If you really have a shitload of money hire a person who knows a lot about BTC trading and has good reputation, I guess he'll be able to arrange trade much better than an outsider would do.

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jgarzik
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April 09, 2011, 10:41:23 AM
 #11

If you really have a shitload of money hire a person who knows a lot about BTC trading and has good reputation, I guess he'll be able to arrange trade much better than an outsider would do.

I wouldn't say you need a shitload of money to do that.


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April 09, 2011, 10:58:39 AM
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For the start just buy the >50k BTC on MtGox which are all well below 2$.

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April 09, 2011, 11:40:11 AM
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As you well note, that kind of volume would be a noticeable portion of total BTC float.

By default this makes you a market-maker to some degree.

My advice, hire someone or come in behind an established player and become a market-maker and BTC exchange. That's where you can make the gains in the next phase and you will get your 200K BTC and more, back in spades imvho. E.g. buy Mt. Gox.

u2u3
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April 09, 2011, 12:30:37 PM
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Thank you jgarzik for your insightful remarks. Buying up slowly on MtGox is probably the way to go.

BitcoinRigs: I would need 300 GH/s to acquire the amount I want in 2-4 months assuming no difficulty increase. More likely 500 or 1000 GH/s when taking difficulty into account. I take it you and your competitors are using high-end computer video cards. This is 1000 or 2000 of them. It would take multiple months to purchase and set up the hardware, no? Quite frankly the more I look into it, the more I prefer the simpler and less risky way of buying Bitcoins on the market.

As to whether I should be quiet or not about my purchase: quite honestly I doubt that being open about it will change anything. Half of you disbelieve me anyway.

Edit: Acquiring an exchange is thinking way ouf of the box, moa. Will think about it.
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April 09, 2011, 12:50:56 PM
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As to whether I should be quiet or not about my purchase: quite honestly I doubt that being open about it will change anything. Half of you disbelieve me anyway.

Perhaps you should consider joining the IRC discussion at #bitcoin-otc. You will get feedback from more people, and probably learn a few things.

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benjamindees
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April 09, 2011, 01:23:33 PM
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Hmm, It's becoming kind of obvious that Bitcoin needs an investment banker.  This seems like a good opportunity.

It would make more sense to invest in producing some type of product that you can sell for Bitcoins.

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April 09, 2011, 01:31:07 PM
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I sent you a PM about how to do this if you are really wanting to.

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April 09, 2011, 08:14:50 PM
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On average there are 6 blocks an hour which comes to (6*24*50) = 7200/day. So you are looking at <28 days worth, not 2 years. Even this much will move the market substantially. What do you think happens if you try to buy 5% of all dollars? Or 5% of all gold? Obviously disruption. You can't even know how many coins you will want or be able to afford until you start buying.

Agreed. Buying that many coins on the open market is going to shoot the price straight through the roof. I say go for it!!! In two months when the price hits $5, I'll cash out, then a month later the price will settle back down to $1 and I'll buy back all my coins for a huge profit.

Just one hangup ... Doesn't mtgox have a $1000/day withdrawal limit? I don't see how you could get that many coins out of mtgox in 2-4 months.

Buy & Hold
jgarzik
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April 09, 2011, 08:16:53 PM
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Just one hangup ... Doesn't mtgox have a $1000/day withdrawal limit? I don't see how you could get that many coins out of mtgox in 2-4 months.

IMO if a user is willing to provide full KYC info to mtgox, mtgox should permit removal of that limit.


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April 09, 2011, 09:01:10 PM
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Just one hangup ... Doesn't mtgox have a $1000/day withdrawal limit? I don't see how you could get that many coins out of mtgox in 2-4 months.

IMO if a user is willing to provide full KYC info to mtgox, mtgox should permit removal of that limit.



they can't remove the limit for the reason explained here:
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5627.0
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