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Author Topic: why is price of bitcoin rising these last few days ?  (Read 6237 times)
714
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January 01, 2012, 08:01:46 PM
 #21

Interesting. It's just like no one here has ever seen trading in a microcap security manipulated by a large player or two.

Certainly the timing of the recent price moves isn't tied to real world economic influences. Current conditions more resemble the sort of activity one sometimes sees when large portions of world security markets are closed for local holidays and such. Historically forex traders in Japan have been big on such opportunities.

Not that bitcoin has much in common with forex either. The bitcoin market is simply too tiny for principles of market behavior to be applied. To understand bitcoin trading, the best real world analogs are to be found in the perennially cheesy and fraudulent world of penny stocks.

So, in the spirit of the inane prattle and overblown hyperbole that is traditional in the world of pennies, let us turn to the standard phrasebook. I'll start but I'll leave a few just in case anyone else has any personal favorites they would like to add.

1. Time to back up the truck!
2. The train is leaving the station, better get on board now!
3. BUY BUY BUY BUY!
4. Anyone can see that this is a 1-D-10-T sub-wavelet formation marked by a Fibonacci target reversal pattern with bird entrail confirmations. It's time to BUY BUY BUY BUY!
5. This rocket is headed for the moon!
6. If God had not meant for them to be shorn, he would not have made them sheep.

Whoops, the last one is for internal use only  Grin

Feel free to add your own, there are plenty of examples to be found on this forum.

"Bitcoins are for the most part as useless as they ever were."
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January 01, 2012, 08:15:22 PM
 #22

Interesting. It's just like no one here has ever seen trading in a microcap security manipulated by a large player or two.

Certainly the timing of the recent price moves isn't tied to real world economic influences. C



I don't know if you've noticed, but the trend has been moving upwards since nov 14.

That's Nov 14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30 Dec 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31

that it's been increasing.


This is definitely a group effort.



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January 01, 2012, 08:22:06 PM
 #23

Interesting. It's just like no one here has ever seen trading in a microcap security manipulated by a large player or two.

Certainly the timing of the recent price moves isn't tied to real world economic influences. C



I don't know if you've noticed, but the trend has been moving upwards since nov 14.
 infant
That's Nov 14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30 Dec 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31

that it's been increasing.


This is definitely a group effort.

Oh yeah, never seen anything like it before except when someone rattles their keys to distract an infant. Not too bad a start for a neophyte, you can always score extra shill points by posting something like

"SHORTS ARE GETTING PWNED!"

"Bitcoins are for the most part as useless as they ever were."
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January 01, 2012, 08:33:05 PM
 #24

[...]
4. Anyone can see that this is a 1-D-10-T sub-wavelet formation marked by a Fibonacci target reversal pattern with bird entrail confirmations. It's time to BUY BUY BUY BUY!
[...]
LOL! Smiley
I'm skeptical of technical analysis as well. Has it ever been proven to work? I mean, wouldn't it be simple to compare guesses derived from technical analysis with random guesses, and see if there's a difference?

It seems to me that the information (time stamp, price and volume) on which technical analysis is performed, is such a tiny fraction of all the information that influences whether people buy or sell that predictions based on it are next to useless.
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January 01, 2012, 09:55:02 PM
 #25

[...]
4. Anyone can see that this is a 1-D-10-T sub-wavelet formation marked by a Fibonacci target reversal pattern with bird entrail confirmations. It's time to BUY BUY BUY BUY!
[...]
LOL! Smiley
I'm skeptical of technical analysis as well. Has it ever been proven to work? I mean, wouldn't it be simple to compare guesses derived from technical analysis with random guesses, and see if there's a difference?

It seems to me that the information (time stamp, price and volume) on which technical analysis is performed, is such a tiny fraction of all the information that influences whether people buy or sell that predictions based on it are next to useless.

It is a self-fulfilling prophecy to a certain degree.  There is also a lot of psychology involved.  How does the chart make you feel?  That will play into how you trade.  Nothing is foolproof.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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January 01, 2012, 10:10:40 PM
 #26

Hard for anyone to answer this question.   The volume of bitcoins is small about 8 million, being such a small niche market, it is not difficult for speculators to manipulate the prices.

It'll be much easier to answer in a few days: There'll be press coverage because price is rising. Price is rising because there is press coverage.

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January 01, 2012, 10:25:05 PM
 #27

[...]
4. Anyone can see that this is a 1-D-10-T sub-wavelet formation marked by a Fibonacci target reversal pattern with bird entrail confirmations. It's time to BUY BUY BUY BUY!
[...]
LOL! Smiley
I'm skeptical of technical analysis as well. Has it ever been proven to work? I mean, wouldn't it be simple to compare guesses derived from technical analysis with random guesses, and see if there's a difference?

It seems to me that the information (time stamp, price and volume) on which technical analysis is performed, is such a tiny fraction of all the information that influences whether people buy or sell that predictions based on it are next to useless.

My observation about technical analysis is that sometimes it works so well that the outcomes cannot be anything other than the results of a self fulfilling prophecy. This is nowhere clearer than when one observes price movements near values that conform to various ratios, famously the Golden Mean, long a favorite in all manner of numerological superstitions. Such magic numbers are easily incorporated in the algorithms of trading robots, meatbots included.

Elliot's ideas about patterns of rising and falling sentiment do seem to have some validity when applied to human behavior, but the baroque miasma he built can be used to assert anything at any time, which is a useful property of successful tools of financial advice: Always Have An Explanation, No Matter The Circumstances Or What You May Have Said Previously Wink

Magic is always a big hit with True Believers, the title of Elliot's last work on the subject should tell you everything you need to know about it's appeal: "Nature’s Laws: The Secret of the Universe".

Speaking of the Music Of The Spheres, here's a quote featured in the Wikipedia article "Elliot Wave Principle":

**
Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:

    The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.
**

IMO, technical analysis has little to do with bitcoin, look at penny stocks if you want to understand the past year or so, bitcoin is a replay of a rigged game that's been around almost as long as the world's oldest confidence scheme, religion.

"Bitcoins are for the most part as useless as they ever were."
 - Edward50
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January 01, 2012, 10:27:10 PM
 #28

When shit-head groups like Anonymous and /b/ comes back to bitcoin "r3prez1nt1n", that will be the clear sign to exit.
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January 01, 2012, 10:42:08 PM
 #29

It's a strange notion to use words like "should" and "artificial" on a market controlled by a fairly diverse set of humans.

It's very rare that I'll apply "artificial" to a free market, but in this case it was.  The way down was driven by a very diverse group of people, but the very bottom - the $2 that we bounced off off - was a single individual who threw down a lot of money to stop the fall, followed by spending quite a bit to pitch it back up again.  It was easily visible in the charts I posted at the time.

The price is back in the hands of the larger market now, but the bottom was not the action of a fairly diverse set of humans.


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January 02, 2012, 12:03:31 AM
 #30

It's a strange notion to use words like "should" and "artificial" on a market controlled by a fairly diverse set of humans.

It's very rare that I'll apply "artificial" to a free market, but in this case it was.  The way down was driven by a very diverse group of people, but the very bottom - the $2 that we bounced off off - was a single individual who threw down a lot of money to stop the fall, followed by spending quite a bit to pitch it back up again.  It was easily visible in the charts I posted at the time.

The price is back in the hands of the larger market now, but the bottom was not the action of a fairly diverse set of humans.



Thing is, it doesnt matter. The money was there. Next time there will be two or three times as many believing in it and as said earlier, If/when this hits the press...Means more interest, means even higer price, even more press and this time its really easy to buy much easier than any stock or gold. Anyone can buy with their creditcard...
Also together with them mentioned on the Good wife et...

For the worlds first ever cryptocurrency $5 appears to be a bargain.


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January 02, 2012, 12:20:29 AM
 #31

It doesn't matter as long as people are willing to keep putting money down to back their belief / speculation.  The miners have to be paid or the price goes down.  People have to not panic or the price goes down fast.

Mr. M had the capital to prop it up at $2, but probably not at $20.  Thus it falls back to fundamentals and speculation.  The fundamentals say we're overvalued by 1-2 orders.  Speculation gets harder the more expensive it gets.

All the things you cite are great reasons for the price to run up, but I don't see how it's going to find support once it gets up there unless the fundamentals change, specifically a sustained increase in real commerce.

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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January 02, 2012, 01:57:07 AM
 #32

It doesn't matter as long as people are willing to keep putting money down to back their belief / speculation.  The miners have to be paid or the price goes down.  People have to not panic or the price goes down fast.

Mr. M had the capital to prop it up at $2, but probably not at $20.  Thus it falls back to fundamentals and speculation.  The fundamentals say we're overvalued by 1-2 orders.  Speculation gets harder the more expensive it gets.

All the things you cite are great reasons for the price to run up, but I don't see how it's going to find support once it gets up there unless the fundamentals change, specifically a sustained increase in real commerce.

This strikes me as revisionism. 
The patterns of asks down at the $2 and $3 levels showed all indications of strong multiparty buying pressure.
'The manipulator' might be an interesting theory with regards to why certain sequences of abrupt movements occur - but you seem to be overreaching.

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January 02, 2012, 02:20:37 AM
 #33

It doesn't matter as long as people are willing to keep putting money down to back their belief / speculation.  The miners have to be paid or the price goes down.  People have to not panic or the price goes down fast.

Mr. M had the capital to prop it up at $2, but probably not at $20.  Thus it falls back to fundamentals and speculation.  The fundamentals say we're overvalued by 1-2 orders.  Speculation gets harder the more expensive it gets.

All the things you cite are great reasons for the price to run up, but I don't see how it's going to find support once it gets up there unless the fundamentals change, specifically a sustained increase in real commerce.

Do you think the current price of gold is explained by an increase of merchants that accept gold in exchange for their products?

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January 02, 2012, 02:21:16 AM
 #34

This strikes me as revisionism.

Nope.  On Nov 14, just before we hit bottom, I called it out as unusual behavior by a single trader.  This post and chart says it all:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=51784.msg617950#msg617950

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January 02, 2012, 02:24:44 AM
 #35

Do you think the current price of gold is explained by an increase of merchants that accept gold in exchange for their products?

No, I think it's partly an increased demand for a non-fiat value store (which can also increase the fundamental price of Bitcoins - it's part of my formula).  It's also an equal or larger dose of speculative bubble.

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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January 02, 2012, 02:26:42 AM
 #36

This strikes me as revisionism.

Nope.  On Nov 14, just before we hit bottom, I called it out as unusual behavior by a single trader.  This post and chart says it all:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=51784.msg617950#msg617950

wow, you have a very active imagination.
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January 02, 2012, 02:30:25 AM
 #37

wow, you have a very active imagination.

I do, but I also have charts that show unprecedented bid depth created by a single person.  That was concretely an unusual and significant event, and the market did, in fact, suddenly change immediately thereafter.

Speculating on the motives and what will happen next is entirely my imagination, but hey, that's why they call it speculation, right? Smiley

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Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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January 02, 2012, 02:44:55 AM
 #38

wow, you have a very active imagination.

I do, but I also have charts that show unprecedented bid depth created by a single person.  That was concretely an unusual and significant event, and the market did, in fact, suddenly change immediately thereafter.

Speculating on the motives and what will happen next is entirely my imagination, but hey, that's why they call it speculation, right? Smiley

I agree with Revalin's interpretation of what happened on Nov 14.  Two big market makers went head to head, one drew a line in the sand, and the other lost.

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January 02, 2012, 03:29:48 AM
 #39

All the things you cite are great reasons for the price to run up, but I don't see how it's going to find support once it gets up there unless the fundamentals change, specifically a sustained increase in real commerce.

Again: Do you think the current price of gold is explained by an increase of merchants that accept gold in exchange for their products?

http://elbitcoin.org - Bitcoin en español
http://mercadobitcoin.com - MercadoBitcoin
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January 02, 2012, 03:33:31 AM
 #40

Again: Do you think the current price of gold is explained by an increase of merchants that accept gold in exchange for their products?

No, I think it's partly an increased demand for a non-fiat value store (which can also increase the fundamental price of Bitcoins - it's part of my formula).  It's also an equal or larger dose of speculative bubble.

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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