It is obvious from reading the speculation forum (and reddit) that only those with the conviction to hodl actually hodl, and those strongly tend to be people who both understand Bitcoin at a deep level (aren't spooked by FUD) and understand the necessary aspects of investing (aren't spooked by volatility because they understand the dynamics of the binary bet and exponential growth). When bitcoin went from under a dollar to over $30, then down to $2 over the course of a single year, the market was shaking out the weak hands - the poor speculators - in a spectacularly violent fashion. But what is this volatility optimizing for - that is, who's this market making rich? Here are some obvious ones:
1) Good hodlers, people who deeply grok Bitcoin and its investment aspects, who will likely
dishoard in an organized fashion at peaks, dampening the bubbles and not contributing to the panic knifedowns nor to the FUD-based selloffs
2) Good traders who see the big picture, thereby decreasing the volatility
3) Perhaps warranting their own category are the people who have extremely deep or highly technical understanding of Bitcoin, to the level of what would almost seem to others like "insider information" (though there's nothing bad about this; in fact it's a good thing, if you follow the reasoning outlined above)
The main point is, besides some people who got lucky, the Bitcoin ledger is held mainly by people who most strongly believe in and most intimately understand Bitcoin (and understood it early!) and the relevant investing principles, or those who have actually contributed materially to the ecosystem. These people are far more likely than others to know where resources should be diverted to in the economy for maximum benefit to the community, and the maturity of the Bitcoin ledger ensures that they actually have the ability to command such resources (i.e., they have accumulated a lot of bitcoins to invest in infrastructure, and they have relatively little competition from unskilled investors who fund dead-end projects that waste dev time, etc.).
As someone who has made several million trades on the NYSE, etc
And probably understands how a guy like Jim Rogers thinks quite well...
I would argue exactly the opposite.
We all know many Family Guys whose SOLE major lifetime investment is a house...
And that house over 30-40 years has usually appreciated 10-20 fold...
Primarily because this type of person is unsophisticated, conservative, and afraid to sell.
So for all the wrong reasons Family Guy is a cash poor "millionaire"...
But by your reasoning would be considered a Real Estate Expert.
In fact, Family Guy probably considers himself a Genius...
As do most people that randomly "got lucky" one way or another.
Translate this unsophisticated "fear of selling" inertia to Bitcoin...
And you have a slew of very ordinary people that have RANDOMLY become Bitcoin millionaires...
But view themselves as genius level investors...
And are mistakenly viewed as such by people like yourself.
I would bet that these random BTC millionaires will never hit another home run...
And that their Crypto investment opinion is completely random...
I could name names of such people who are conscripted HERE to promote various Alts.
Conversely, actual genius level people sophisticated in the markets or engineering...
Would have behaved in a much more cautious, diversified, contrarian manner = avoiding the herd...
And be mid-level Bitcoin holders in the 5 to low 6 figure range.
A specific example (whom I've met) being Peter Todd...
Who had about 100 BTC... and sold 50% a few months ago saying BTC could go to zero...
Which shows great decisiveness and independent thinking.
Jim Rogers has made his fortune as an extreme contrarian also...
Would not have slavishly followed a cultish herd for many years.
Believing that Bitcoin can only go up... and can never be severely disrupted... is extremely naive.