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Author Topic: Bitcoin: The Downward Trend Continues  (Read 4987 times)
Redtea (OP)
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April 10, 2014, 10:30:43 PM
 #1

The charts don’t lie, and the data plainly show that Bitcoin remains on a slow but steady price decline. A little over a month ago, prices were near $700 — but it’s been all downhill ever since. In some ways a long, slow slide is a worse sign for Bitcoin than a great crash, as the gradual decline may signify a loss of confidence in the system itself. That fear, that the Bitcoin infrastructure itself is insecure, is not entirely without merit.

First came a string of high-profile exchange hacks that bled millions out of exchanges that were insignificant in size, but the headlines tarnished all. The source of the hacks was eventually traced to a flaw in the Bitcoin exchange system. It was a small flaw that was easily fixed — but the damage to Bitcoin’s reputation was already done.

Then there was the nagging speculation that the hack of the Mt. Gox Bitcoin exchange might have been more of a loss than a hack — possibly even a theft. That impression was reinforced by the discovery of $117 million tucked away in a cold storage server. There were rumors of free-spending largess by the CEO of the now defunct exchange in the days prior to the hack. While those rumors are as yet unsubstantiated, the mere fact that the truth behind the disappearance was so difficult to pin down was another blow to user confidence in Bitcoin transactions.

Added to the growing pains of the technology itself were regulators lining up to voice their skepticism about all things Bitcoin, a list that now includes Attorney General Eric Holder. The IRS is labeling Bitcoin as property, a decision that’s currently being appealed.

In yet another minor but frustrating security concern, comes news of the Heartbleed SSL vulnerability. Heartbleed exploits a flaw in OpenSSL, a critical component in the Bitcoin system. While it’s not clear whether any hacks have been directly attributed to Heartbleed, the news caused at least one major exchange to clamp down on Bitcoin withdraws until it’s fixed. While the Heartbleed vulnerability is certain to be patched quickly, it’s just another razor cut to user confidence in Bitcoin.

It’s not any one piece of news that’s particularly bad for Bitcoin, it’s the impression left by the cumulative weight of many annoying little problems. Couple all that with the independent and sometimes aloof nature of the Bitcoin community, and you get a formula for a loss of confidence and declining prices.

As I’ve said before, I remain skeptical of any pronouncements of Bitcoin’s imminent demise. The Bitcoin universe has some very compelling engineering ideas incorporated into its DNA, and there is real value in the frictionless exchange inherent in the system design. The security problems will get resolved, and the community will totter along, weighing the pros and cons of making compromises with “the man” on a number of key issues, including regulation.

For now much of the tech world, and many potential investors, are taking a wait and see approach. Bitcoin is the pioneer in the field soaking up all the arrows, and there’s an unfortunate human tendency to pile on those suffering misfortune.

For the meantime I’d remind my readers that we went through all these mental gyrations and more during the early days of the Internet. We got through those, and I believe Bitcoin will get through this current period of skepticism and instability.



Sources:

http://redteanews.com/2014/04/09/bitcoin-the-downward-trend-continues/#.U0caaPldXfI




-Redtea
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iGROWyourBiz
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April 10, 2014, 10:42:44 PM
 #2

I would say it has more to do with the buying patterns of Americans/USD and News Cycles.

Over $1000 during Holiday Time after only being in the 10s in January.

And now it is basically riding that wave - still over valued.

unless something major happens to stimulate its worth, the price will continue to decline until we move into the holiday season again, where it will likely surpass last years rate.

Think of how Gasoline prices do based off of Mideast issues and summer usage cycle.

We have had flatline over the last couple years, only because demand for gas outside the USA has balanced out. We once were the largest consumer of oil/gasoline on planet, now the middle class in other countries means our buying power is almost meaningless.  If we stopped buying gas altogether, it would not matter (like it once did) because the demand on the rest of the planet makes up for any hole we may create.

BTC is the same.   Until DEMAND raises (which will be major acceptance) the price will continue to be bubble after bubble until it all stabilizes.

I think BTC will get crushed in the end, but what comes next will be "the one" and globally accepted.
LAMarcellus
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April 10, 2014, 10:45:54 PM
 #3

Not a word about China??

I guess everyone's entitled to their opinions.

The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion. – Albert Camus
ParsnipCommander
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April 10, 2014, 10:46:57 PM
 #4

I don't really see a problem. Bitcoin has not really taken off just yet - it needs time. I think most of us are in it for the future, not just some fluctuations. If everyone believes this is the future, and we allow it to be the future, and we make it the future, the price will bottom out eventually and the market will soon take it back up.

zolace
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April 10, 2014, 10:47:04 PM
 #5

BTC overvalued are you kidding me?   is way below value, half of bitcoins been mined and is over valued?  wait till the other 20 percent get into bitcoin.  Then lets see how overvalued it will really be.

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herebittybittybitty
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April 10, 2014, 10:49:12 PM
 #6

Bitcoin will only face more antagonism from governments in the future. I don't care, it just makes it more appealing to me.
jonald_fyookball
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April 10, 2014, 10:53:44 PM
 #7

BTC overvalued are you kidding me?   is way below value, half of bitcoins been mined and is over valued?  wait till the other 20 percent get into bitcoin.  Then lets see how overvalued it will really be.

20% ?  Very few people are bitcoin holders. 

runam0k
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April 10, 2014, 11:12:06 PM
 #8

Meh

Still well above the previous ATH.
Waramp22
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April 10, 2014, 11:23:35 PM
 #9

The recent drop from $1200 that has everyones panties is a bunch is because of China getting in/getting out.

May 2011 $4
May 2012 $5
May 2013 $140
May 2014 $375

There is nothing to panic about if you are in it for the long haul. Go lose a couple thousand trading penny stocks if you are bored of bitcoins slow decline in value.

Scammed by Black Arrow? See the consumer complaint thread here -
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=681965.0
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April 10, 2014, 11:31:11 PM
 #10

The future is hard to predict due to geo-political events dictating the price of Bitcoin.

Yes its true the price of Bitcoin has declined. You need to ask yourself do the fundamentals still hold true for why you bought Bitcoin.

In March last year after the Bail-ins took place in Cyprus. The price of Bitcoin rocketed up from $20 dollars to $200. Cyprus makes up only 0.1% of the European Union.

With central banks worldwide in a race to debase their currencies via Quantitative Easing. The fundamentals still hold true for me for owning Bitcoin.

We have had zero interest rate policies for the last 5 years since the financial crisis. People have lost out to inflation by keeping their money in the bank.

With all the madness going on in the world, it is hard to know what tomorrow will bring. But what I do know is that Central banks can only devalue their currencies so much before the public loses complete confidence in the system.

The key point being it is only confidence that gives paper money any value.

The current monetary system in place is based upon debt. Money is created through the existance of loans. Which means there is never enough money in supply to pay it off.

It will only take a small country to have a political crisis, or currency devaluation to drive up the price of Bitcoin again.

If people piggy backed on to Bitcoin just to make a quick buck and are now deciding to jump ship, that is fine by me. No problem at all.

We are just getting rid of the weak hands. Bitcoin is money reinvented and all revolutions take time.

The more transparency there is on Bitcoin the faster the adoption will be. People who don't like Bitcoin are typically the ones that do not understand it.

Give it time my friends, we are still growing as a movement. The best is still yet to come.
howzar
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April 10, 2014, 11:34:46 PM
 #11

BTC overvalued are you kidding me?   is way below value, half of bitcoins been mined and is over valued?  wait till the other 20 percent get into bitcoin.  Then lets see how overvalued it will really be.

20% ?  Very few people are bitcoin holders. 

And that is the very problem, they are holding not spending it as a currency
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April 11, 2014, 12:03:59 AM
 #12

BTC overvalued are you kidding me?   is way below value, half of bitcoins been mined and is over valued?  wait till the other 20 percent get into bitcoin.  Then lets see how overvalued it will really be.

It is neither undervalued nor overvalued. It's value is precisely what another person is willing to pay you for it. Right now, that is roughly 360.
andyBernard
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April 11, 2014, 12:45:48 AM
 #13

bitcoin is digital fiat ... where many govts. are seeing it a threat to paper fiat.  so, they are killing it.  if you don't see that, you aren't being honest imo
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April 11, 2014, 12:46:28 AM
 #14

BTC overvalued are you kidding me?   is way below value, half of bitcoins been mined and is over valued?  wait till the other 20 percent get into bitcoin.  Then lets see how overvalued it will really be.

It is neither undervalued nor overvalued. It's value is precisely what another person is willing to pay you for it. Right now, that is roughly 360.

Thank heaven that I just learnt that bots don't play a role on the various exchanges.
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April 11, 2014, 12:57:38 AM
 #15

we are in The price drop as was foretasted by majority. Just keep buying.  Bitcoin 2 is in the last stages of development. Then all this manipulation by wall-sharks,managers and bankster will be way much complicated!!! For now just support small local s exchanges make it more diversified.  LArge exchanges are  best for manipulation.

  The price is not the problem it is natural effect by manipulation (shake the tree) on the big exchanges  in my opinion. Big boys are buy when little guys are scared :-)


  I thing we should concentrate on bitcoins only and minimized inflation like effects by supporting all startupcoins any more.

altcoins are/( were) good for development, but best is stay in 21.000.000 unit limit, all benefits of altcoins are coming  into bitcoin2 this will operate on many parallel chains and each with different benefits.
such a fast one .
microtransaction one.
max-secure one. sky is the limit. but the beauty is the is only 21 M unit.  

 multiple- chain system will bring more stability.  (errors stay isolated)


Keep buying  and keep on paper wallets for now, nobody will stop evolution. America is not everything. rest of the world will support it.  This is global wake up call.

 



 
kyma
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April 11, 2014, 01:06:53 AM
 #16

bitcoin2? what am I missing?

morganti
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April 11, 2014, 01:07:26 AM
 #17

It's a a buyers market right now. If China is forcing people to liquidate assets (Bitcoins), then buyers are taking advantage of that and will pay pennies on the dollar because they know that people are desperate and scared to get their money out before it gets forcibly seized. Those with money could potentially make large gains as the market calms to this event, and they cash in on the market's fear. Just look at what happened after the recent crisis, the wealthy purchased under-valued stock and now they are cashing in on that investment.

I want to caution people that this is a different than the crisis in 08, but there are some lessons to be learned, and there is no guarantee that the price will rise. These are nothing more than media related fluctuations IMO.
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April 11, 2014, 04:05:22 AM
 #18

Buyers have renetered the market ...

Let see if its bull trap ... 340+ is an awesome price for BTC

Is this fear out of our system yet Huh

Or should we hold until the 15th

One thing I have learned is that a merket will always zig when u expect it to zag  Tongue

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April 11, 2014, 04:58:28 AM
 #19

Just watch for the downward trap...lol

it will snap up. Coiling spring in progress. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

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njcarlos
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April 11, 2014, 05:17:05 AM
 #20

The fact that we rely on China to be setting the value is disturbing. It just tells me we'll be in the $150-250 range within days of any certain ban in the region.
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