Russian roadmap to Solar System colonisation. Moon is the first step.

[dogechode]

As soon as commercial space companies pick up steam the US should easily surpass Russia in terms of space technology. Frankly I think we are still ahead but it won't even be close. American private corporations will be far more effective than Russian government bodies that are rife with corruption and quality control issues (Those last two items are not my opinions, those are facts. Russia has a serious problem with corruption in military technology and development and they struggle with quality issues.)

Now, American government-funded programs do suffer from the same issues but American corporations suffer less than Russian ones do in that respect. Russian corps are far more interwoven with the government than their American counterparts are.

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[Nemo1024]

As soon as commercial space companies pick up steam the US should easily surpass Russia in terms of space technology. Frankly I think we are still ahead but it won't even be close. American private corporations will be far more effective than Russian government bodies that are rife with corruption and quality control issues (Those last two items are not my opinions, those are facts. Russia has a serious problem with corruption in military technology and development and they struggle with quality issues.)

Now, American government-funded programs do suffer from the same issues but American corporations suffer less than Russian ones do in that respect. Russian corps are far more interwoven with the government than their American counterparts are.

dogechode, I agree with your entire post, save for the last sentence. You could say that American corps are the government acting through a series of middlemen.

[FalconFly]

As soon as commercial space companies pick up steam the US should easily surpass Russia in terms of space technology. Frankly I think we are still ahead but it won't even be close. American private corporations will be far more effective than Russian government bodies that are rife with corruption and quality control issues (Those last two items are not my opinions, those are facts. Russia has a serious problem with corruption in military technology and development and they struggle with quality issues.)

Now, American government-funded programs do suffer from the same issues but American corporations suffer less than Russian ones do in that respect. Russian corps are far more interwoven with the government than their American counterparts are.

Right now commercial space companies face the same problem as almost all companies - global economy is slowing down, credit is drying up and the whole debt wall is in danger of eventually collapsing.
That means things will not pick up steam - they'll rather grind to a complete halt instead, unless they find a way to become profitable.

Money is hard to come by these days and it will only get harder in the forseeable future. The US lost the technology race about 1-2 decades ago in many respects with only isolated lighttower projects that still stand out (as a direct result of the ill-fated US policy priorities). Today, the US is doomed as a comsumer nation either of eastern/european technology (hightech) or going the cheap route with sub-par equipment. Some domestic products are availble but those either carry an extreme price tag or lack the technology (direct result of vastly insufficient funding during the last decades).
These handicaps could be countered but that would need lots of money and even more time... and that's something money can't buy in unlimited amounts.

Oh, and btw. the US military industrial complex with its strong government collusion is about the most corrupt entity besides its even larger energy and financial complex. All of them are struggling with severe quality issues (albeit with the military still standing the most effective to this date, except their quality equipment is extremely expensive and nearly impossible to operate & maintain financially over the next decade). But again, that's a government policy issue. And that policy is of a very classic and earthly nature, in a mentally sick kind of way.

When it comes to big bucks, only the US government supported companies would still have the ability for large-scale operations in space (industrial sized) within the United States - however, US government doesn't care about space for as long as it isn't a) extremely lucrative or of b) strategic military benefit in order to accept the financial risks of entering large projects.
In short : if it can't deliver a strategic resource or effectively bomb other nations - they won't invest a single penny in it outside some symbolic PR stunts.

[Littleshop]

As soon as commercial space companies pick up steam the US should easily surpass Russia in terms of space technology. Frankly I think we are still ahead but it won't even be close. American private corporations will be far more effective than Russian government bodies that are rife with corruption and quality control issues (Those last two items are not my opinions, those are facts. Russia has a serious problem with corruption in military technology and development and they struggle with quality issues.)

Now, American government-funded programs do suffer from the same issues but American corporations suffer less than Russian ones do in that respect. Russian corps are far more interwoven with the government than their American counterparts are.

Right now commercial space companies face the same problem as almost all companies - global economy is slowing down, credit is drying up and the whole debt wall is in danger of eventually collapsing.
That means things will not pick up steam - they'll rather grind to a complete halt instead, unless they find a way to become profitable.

Money is hard to come by these days and it will only get harder in the forseeable future. The US lost the technology race about 1-2 decades ago in many respects with only isolated lighttower projects that still stand out (as a direct result of the ill-fated US policy priorities). Today, the US is doomed as a comsumer nation either of eastern/european technology (hightech) or going the cheap route with sub-par equipment. Some domestic products are availble but those either carry an extreme price tag or lack the technology (direct result of vastly insufficient funding during the last decades).
These handicaps could be countered but that would need lots of money and even more time... and that's something money can't buy in unlimited amounts.

Oh, and btw. the US military industrial complex with its strong government collusion is about the most corrupt entity besides its even larger energy and financial complex. All of them are struggling with severe quality issues (albeit with the military still standing the most effective to this date, except their quality equipment is extremely expensive and nearly impossible to operate & maintain financially over the next decade). But again, that's a government policy issue. And that policy is of a very classic and earthly nature, in a mentally sick kind of way.

When it comes to big bucks, only the US government supported companies would still have the ability for large-scale operations in space (industrial sized) within the United States - however, US government doesn't care about space for as long as it isn't a) extremely lucrative or of b) strategic military benefit in order to accept the financial risks of entering large projects.
In short : if it can't deliver a strategic resource or effectively bomb other nations - they won't invest a single penny in it outside some symbolic PR stunts.

SpaceX is profitable right now without any reuse of rocket parts.  Most people think SpaceX is on the verge of being able to reuse the first stage of their rocket which will cut the cost of flight down (for them) nearly 50%.  9 out of 10 rocket engines are in the first stage.

As SpaceX increases its launch rate and gets re-use going it will have the highest profit in the rocket industry bar none.  SpaceX will also have the highest operational payload to orbit with the Falcon Heavy which is not much more then a ganged version of a rocket they are already flying.  This is possible because they have mastered LOW COST liquid propulsion and have gone away from lower tech solid rockets. 

[Nemo1024]

Hmm... Freeing resources?

Permanently manned ISS could end in 2020
http://rt.com/news/161632-iss-rogozin-effective-output/

Man in orbit might become history after 2020, as Russia sees no need to keep the ISS operating, announced Vice Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. Manned flights make little profit for Russia’s space agency, which might focus on other projects.

Russia’s Roskosmos space corporation gets little commercial payback from the International Space Station despite spending up to 30 percent of its annual budget on the project, said Rogozin, who is also responsible for the defence industry.

“Our profit is flat low… so we see no business interest in it [going on with the ISS]. Would there be other commercial proposals [we’d consider them],” Rogozin said.

Also, there is an interesting sideline in the article:

If there is no reaction from the US by May 31, the GPS stations will suspend operation for the next three months. If that does not help either, the operation of GSM stations in Russia will cease to exist by August 31, Rogozin promised, adding that this will not interfere with ordinary users of the system in Russia, because the information collected by these stations is being used primarily by the US military and national security agencies.

“These [GSM] stations are situated primarily alongside the Northern Sea Route and it is a big question why they were deployed on our territory in the mid-1990s and for what purpose,” the Deputy PM said, stressing that once the stations are gone, “the American military would feel the difference, whereas Russian GSM users would not.”

[commandrix]

These are the guys who lost the race to the Moon and then denied that they were ever involved in the Space Race. These are the guys who want to "recycle" their part of the International Space Station into their own orbital station so they can turn it into the same kind of junkyard that Mir turned into. Actually, colonizing the Moon could be done if you wanted to reach back into the NASA files for the Apollo technology, modernize it, and basically do what they wanted to do with Apollo Applications with an eye towards colonization. Does anybody with a few billion dollars to spare want to fill out a Freedom of Information Act request?

[Nemo1024]

Mir was actually a brilliant station - far ahead of its time (and NASA acknowledges it http://history.nasa.gov/SP-4225/mir/mir.htm ), and based on Saljut stations research.
Space race. The Moon was there as a target, but at the same time Soviet Union was very heavily investing into rover technology - ahead of US, with the sights set on Martian exploration. That was the initial objective. SU accepted the Lunar challenge after the Apollo program was announced, diverting engineering resources from the Martian program. The result was that neither program got gull attention and both dwindled.

And more interesting reading here:
http://www.russianspaceweb.com/spacecraft_manned_salyut.html

[kuroman]

too bad the article is in Russian so I'll just make my assumption here, I think that this is a study and draft plan like you can find at any big space agency. I think Russia is on a good road when it comes to space program their space agency budget is increasing dramatically every year, as well as the chinese program, so we are bound to see some interesting stuff happening in the next decade or so

[commandrix]

Yeah, Mir sure lasted a long time. But ask Jerry M. Linenger, an astronaut who served on Mir, and he would probably tell you about the time there was a fire on board. The place was full of trash because the Russians basically weren't providing garbage hauling service. I don't think too many people cried when it finally came down.

[Nemo1024]

ISS saw it's fair share of accidents as well. This stuff does happen:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station_maintenance

[kuroman]

SpaceX is profitable right now without any reuse of rocket parts.  Most people think SpaceX is on the verge of being able to reuse the first stage of their rocket which will cut the cost of flight down (for them) nearly 50%.  9 out of 10 rocket engines are in the first stage.

As SpaceX increases its launch rate and gets re-use going it will have the highest profit in the rocket industry bar none.  SpaceX will also have the highest operational payload to orbit with the Falcon Heavy which is not much more then a ganged version of a rocket they are already flying.  This is possible because they have mastered LOW COST liquid propulsion and have gone away from lower tech solid rockets.  

50% is not a realistic figure, not to mention how previous american programs that were based on reusing parts failled hard so what would make SpaceX any different (usually the parts are either lost, are way too damaged to be resused...? also spaceX program is very limited in terms of capacity right now, maybe things will change when the Falcom Heavy rocket is operational.

But I like the principal of the Falcom rocket, simplifying things make them cheaper and more reliable, hence cost efficient

[Spendulus]

ISS saw it's fair share of accidents as well. This stuff does happen:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station_maintenance

Regarding the Moon, though, it is ripe for nations to exploit with fully robotic machines in large numbers.  The development and deployment of such equipment would enormously accelerate AI and robotics.

However at present we have no clue how to operate through the heat of a lunar day or the cold of a lunar night.  From this aspect Mars is much, much friendlier.

[sana8410]

The problem is that if anyone starts messing with the Moon, drilling/fracking, storing nuclear waste, etc. this could damage the moon in such away that it could severely damage the earth. Remember, the moon is not like the earth and does not have the ability to repair itself.

[Spendulus]

The problem is that if anyone starts messing with the Moon, drilling/fracking, storing nuclear waste, etc. this could damage the moon in such away that it could severely damage the earth. Remember, the moon is not like the earth and does not have the ability to repair itself.

I have no idea what you might be talking about or if you are joking.

The Moon is really nothing more than one big mining pit, if you look at the actual minerals and their geographical dispersion.

It's not even pretty.

[dogechode]

The problem is that if anyone starts messing with the Moon, drilling/fracking, storing nuclear waste, etc. this could damage the moon in such away that it could severely damage the earth. Remember, the moon is not like the earth and does not have the ability to repair itself.

I have no idea what you might be talking about or if you are joking.

The Moon is really nothing more than one big mining pit, if you look at the actual minerals and their geographical dispersion.

It's not even pretty.

I think he is referring to the fact that the moon has many documented effects on the earth. If I recall correctly it affects ocean tides quite a bit, and the amount of light it reflects impacts a lot of plant and animals at night. So yes, 'messing with' the moon could have a very real impact on the earth.

[bryant.coleman]

I think he is referring to the fact that the moon has many documented effects on the earth. If I recall correctly it affects ocean tides quite a bit, and the amount of light it reflects impacts a lot of plant and animals at night. So yes, 'messing with' the moon could have a very real impact on the earth.

Unless the moon changes its shape or changes its rotation path around the earth, there will be no additional impact on the earth. And right now, with the current technology, humans are unable to do something as drastic as that. Putting up a settlement on the lunar surface will not impact the life on earth in any big way. 

[stompix]

I think he is referring to the fact that the moon has many documented effects on the earth. If I recall correctly it affects ocean tides quite a bit, and the amount of light it reflects impacts a lot of plant and animals at night. So yes, 'messing with' the moon could have a very real impact on the earth.

Unless the moon changes its shape or changes its rotation path around the earth, there will be no additional impact on the earth. And right now, with the current technology, humans are unable to do something as drastic as that. Putting up a settlement on the lunar surface will not impact the life on earth in any big way. 

A settlement maybe , but what if we go back on testing things on the moon?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_A119

If something bigger would go out of control , probably we would end u with half a moon all the year.

[Spendulus]

I think he is referring to the fact that the moon has many documented effects on the earth. If I recall correctly it affects ocean tides quite a bit, and the amount of light it reflects impacts a lot of plant and animals at night. So yes, 'messing with' the moon could have a very real impact on the earth.

Unless the moon changes its shape or changes its rotation path around the earth, there will be no additional impact on the earth. And right now, with the current technology, humans are unable to do something as drastic as that. Putting up a settlement on the lunar surface will not impact the life on earth in any big way. 

A settlement maybe , but what if we go back on testing things on the moon?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_A119

If something bigger would go out of control , probably we would end u with half a moon all the year.

Atomic bombs are puny nanoscale things compared to something the size of the Earth or the Moon. 

To give an idea of the scale of things, mining one square kilometer of the moon's surface and extracting from the first couple meters aluminum and titanium would give us more of these two metals than is produced over the entire Earth in a year. 

[stompix]

I think he is referring to the fact that the moon has many documented effects on the earth. If I recall correctly it affects ocean tides quite a bit, and the amount of light it reflects impacts a lot of plant and animals at night. So yes, 'messing with' the moon could have a very real impact on the earth.

Unless the moon changes its shape or changes its rotation path around the earth, there will be no additional impact on the earth. And right now, with the current technology, humans are unable to do something as drastic as that. Putting up a settlement on the lunar surface will not impact the life on earth in any big way. 

A settlement maybe , but what if we go back on testing things on the moon?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_A119

If something bigger would go out of control , probably we would end u with half a moon all the year.

Atomic bombs are puny nanoscale things compared to something the size of the Earth or the Moon. 

To give an idea of the scale of things, mining one square kilometer of the moon's surface and extracting from the first couple meters aluminum and titanium would give us more of these two metals than is produced over the entire Earth in a year. 

By the time we reach the moon , atomic bombs might be nanoscale things compared to weapons the army is hiding.

Maybe the next generation "terrorist" will ram the moon to the earth instead of flying a plane into a building

[Nemo1024]

Maybe the next generation "terrorist" will ram the moon to the earth instead of flying a plane into a building

Now, now, don't you start giving "them" any ideas..