The psychology of a HODLer

[ArticMine]

Take a look at the holders and more often than not their activity level on his forum is in the 500+ range. This is an indicator that they have been with Bitcoin since early 2012 or 2011 and in some cases 2010 or even 2009. This means they initially got into Bitcoin in the single digits or below in some cases cents or even fraction of a cent.

I suspect in addition most of the following is true:
They have managed to keep a significant portion of their initial bitcoin, other wise they would not still be around.
They have sold the rest at a sizeable profit in fiat terms but at prices far below the current market, low double digits, single digits, even below etc, and deeply regret having done so.
They have more than taken out their initial fiat investment.
They have sizeable unrealised capital gains in bitcoin that would trigger a very ugly tax bill should they sell. The depends on the jurisdiction, but would require a drop in the market in many cases over 30% just to break even.
They have been through multiple bit bull and bit bear markets.
Bitcoin may account for a very significant portion if not the majority of their net worth.
They have done their research and believe there is a very high likelihood that bitcoin will appreciate by a few orders of magnitude higher in the coming years.
They have been exposed to one or more of the following MTGox, Bitcoinica, pirateat40, another failed exchange, wallet service etc. They may have escaped unscathed or suffered a loss. This will lead to an increase fear of trusting their BTC to any exchange.  
They can sleep better, and have lower blood pressure, being long in a bear market than short in a bull market.  

All of this leads to a very high perceived risk of selling vs the possible gain of buying back at a much lower price. So the safe strategy is HOLD.

[knightcoin]

First of all: I'm no hodler. I cashed out when things got a bit too scary for my taste. Second of all: I feel bad for everyone that has lost money or is on the verge of losing money. You have my sympathy.

Bitcoin is in a prominent bear market at the moment and the current exchange rate might just be a pitstop on the road downwards. What amazes me however is that so many people, people that can actually read a chart, really feel entitled to another quadruple digit rally. Wait, check that. They are sure it is going to happen. Even amidst the chaos of the last days I can still see people claiming that it will reach 10.000 dollars; some even say it will reach that number in three months already.

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in. Some seem to be even more devoted to their own religion of Bitcoinism than the pope is committed to the Roman Catholic Church.  I believe this to be a very dangerous attitude, given the risks involved. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a few posters on these boards are all in with all their life savings - or have even indebted themselves - and are sure shitting themselves at this moment. It might be a religious, god revering response to look up and say to yourself: 'Everything will be all right, I just know it'. They discard any possibility that some guy will come around with a new, superior protocol in as short as the next few years and just blatantly ignore the fact that Bitcoin is not alive at all among the vast majority of the population. Next to that: they probably have a good feeling that governments will not allow capital to flow unrestricted and out of their scope, but still they ignore it.

Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

A Bitcoin Prayer
Our Satoshi, who art in hiding
Hallowed be thy name
Thy protocol done
Wallets will come
On clients as they are on paper
Give us this day our daily Bitcoin
And forgive us our speculation
As we forgive those who use silk road
And lead us not into no confirmation
But deliver us from fiat
For thine is the blockchain, the power and the glory
For ever and ever

Anon

[bitcoinsrus]

A Bitcoin Prayer
Our Satoshi, who art in hiding
Hallowed be thy name
Thy protocol done
Wallets will come
On clients as they are on paper
Give us this day our daily Bitcoin
And forgive us our speculation
As we forgive those who use silk road
And lead us not into no confirmation
But deliver us from fiat
For thine is the blockchain, the power and the glory
For ever and ever

Anon
[/quote]

Amen

[molecular]

First of all: I'm no hodler. I cashed out when things got a bit too scary for my taste. Second of all: I feel bad for everyone that has lost money or is on the verge of losing money. You have my sympathy.

Bitcoin is in a prominent bear market at the moment and the current exchange rate might just be a pitstop on the road downwards. What amazes me however is that so many people, people that can actually read a chart, really feel entitled to another quadruple digit rally. Wait, check that. They are sure it is going to happen. Even amidst the chaos of the last days I can still see people claiming that it will reach 10.000 dollars; some even say it will reach that number in three months already.

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in. Some seem to be even more devoted to their own religion of Bitcoinism than the pope is committed to the Roman Catholic Church.  I believe this to be a very dangerous attitude, given the risks involved. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a few posters on these boards are all in with all their life savings - or have even indebted themselves - and are sure shitting themselves at this moment. It might be a religious, god revering response to look up and say to yourself: 'Everything will be all right, I just know it'. They discard any possibility that some guy will come around with a new, superior protocol in as short as the next few years and just blatantly ignore the fact that Bitcoin is not alive at all among the vast majority of the population. Next to that: they probably have a good feeling that governments will not allow capital to flow unrestricted and out of their scope, but still they ignore it.
b
Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

Hi, long time hodler here (I did sell and spend BTC over the last 3 years, but had I never sold or spent any, I'd have only 50% more than I have now... I consider that pretty stubborn tight hodling. I held on all the way from $32 to $1.96 or whatever it was in late 2011, even buying more on the way down. Of course, had I sold and bought back in at the right times I would now have 10,000% or more than what I have now)

I'll try to explain my psychology... can't speak for every hodler out there:

First, let's begin by explaining that I think crypot is better money that fiat. I had gotten into Bitcoin because it was technically fascinating to me. Then I learned a bit about money in general and become a sound money advocate. I think this might be a key difference between you (let's make that some hypothetical you) and me: you "think in fiat", I "think in BTC". I try to increase my crypto-stash, you try to make a fiat-profit. You go to sleep with fiat, I go to sleep with BTC. You can't understand how people can hold on to BTC during a month-long bear-market, I can't understand how people can "wait for the next dip" in BTC bull markets.

Furthermore: greed had gotten the better of me at times (during 2012 and 2013 mainly) and I saw people increase their BTC-stash by large percentages by selling high and buying low, so I tried that in order to acquire more BTC. I failed miserably because the market got away from me repeatedly. The attempt failed more often than not (it was mostly a bull market after all, so what do you expect given a non-experienced trader like me). Those experiences stuck with me and I have decided that holding is the best strategy for me (and selling a little bit for fiat/metal at times in order to not have to hear "see, I told you so, you should've sold" from friends and also of course because of fear).

Also: I think I'm quite a bit more relaxed than you picture the average hodler to be: Bitcoin could go to 0 and I'd still have a good life after that. I'd be quite sad and angry for a while for sure (depending on the circumstances, of course), but I'd be able to get on with my life, both financially and psychologically.

About that "religious devotion": I really do think crypto will change (is already changing) the world for the better. You might call that naive or romantic or whatnot, but I do believe that. And believe me: I ponder the dangers crypto and bitcoin (might) face every day and reassess my views on a regular basis, trying to keep an open mind. There have indeed been times when I thought some bitcoin 2.0 alt could steal the show and I'm not ruling it out 100% (would it be so bad? After all it would be way better than bitcoin!). My belief that BTC will remain the main carrier of value in the crypto space and the most secure blockchain for quite a while has lately been reinforced, though. Even to the point where I sold 1/3rd of my alts (mainly LTC, PPC) last week, something I had only once done before. So I don't "discard any possibilities" and "say stuff to myself". I try to assess reality and make projections... with varying success, of course.

;tldr: It's not desperation or mania, it's just a different (possibly wrong) assessment of reality and projection of the future.

[ArticMine]

...

Furthermore: greed had gotten the better of me at times (during 2012 and 2013 mainly) and I saw people increase their BTC-stash by large percentages by selling high and buying low, so I tried that in order to acquire more BTC. I failed miserably because the market got away from me repeatedly. The attempt failed more often than not (it was mostly a bull market after all, so what do you expect given a non-experienced trader like me). Those experiences stuck with me and I have decided that holding is the best strategy for me (and selling a little bit for fiat/metal at times in order to not have to hear "see, I told you so, you should've sold" from friends and also of course because of fear).

Also: I think I'm quite a bit more relaxed than you picture the average hodler to be: Bitcoin could go to 0 and I'd still have a good life after that. I'd be quite sad and angry for a while for sure (depending on the circumstances, of course), but I'd be able to get on with my life, both financially and psychologically.

...

This is critical in understanding the psychology of the holder. Greed and fear are reversed. Bitcoin becomes "the money" and fiat "the investment". Selling is actually driven by greed and not fear since it is done with the objective of actually acquiring more bitcoin by engaging in a buy fiat low sell fiat high strategy that more often than not can fail.

[tripper22]

You posted a load of bollocks on here yesterday, too.


You have sold. Attempting to spread FUD on here at what may turn out to be near the turning point (in the hope of buying in lower) is pretty low.

Well to be honest, I wont even consider buying back even if Bitcoin hits double digits. This experiment isn't alive among the people and is only being talked about by a select few that are 'convinced' that Satoshi reinvented the wheel.

But to summarize the part that actually dealt with this topic: you believe that people HODL (only) for 'the long run'? Curious.

Then get the fuck out of here then. Do you really think you are saving anyone? Everyone here knows that they can win or lose. It's idiot trolls like you that have turned this forum into a Bitcoin Ghetto.

[molecular]

Take a look at the holders and more often than not their activity level on his forum is in the 500+ range. This is an indicator that they have been with Bitcoin since early 2012 or 2011 and in some cases 2010 or even 2009. This means they initially got into Bitcoin in the single digits or below in some cases cents or even fraction of a cent.

I suspect in addition most of the following is true:
They have managed to keep a significant portion of their initial bitcoin, other wise they would not still be around.
They have sold the rest at a sizeable profit in fiat terms but at prices far below the current market, low double digits, single digits, even below etc, and deeply regret having done so.
They have more than taken out their initial fiat investment.
They have sizeable unrealised capital gains in bitcoin that would trigger a very ugly tax bill should they sell. The depends on the jurisdiction, but would require a drop in the market in many cases over 30% just to break even.
They have been through multiple bit bull and bit bear markets.
Bitcoin may account for a very significant portion if not the majority of their net worth.
They have done their research and believe there is a very high likelihood that bitcoin will appreciate by a few orders of magnitude higher in the coming years.
They have been exposed to one or more of the following MTGox, Bitcoinica, pirateat40, another failed exchange, wallet service etc. They may have escaped unscathed or suffered a loss. This will lead to an increase fear of trusting their BTC to any exchange.  
They can sleep better, and have lower blood pressure, being long in a bear market than short in a bull market.  

All of this leads to a very high perceived risk of selling vs the possible gain of buying back at a much lower price. So the safe strategy is HOLD.

   ________
  |        |
  |        |
   \      /
    |    |___________________________
    |    |                           |
    |    |___________________________|
    |    |
   /      \
  |        |  <---- hammer
  |________|

<== THWACK! ==>
     ____
      ||   
      ||
      ||      <---- nail
      ||
      ||
      \/

[molecular]

It's nothing less than naive idealism to assume that Bitcoin will be allowed to go around unchecked by governments. They will not allow it.

Here's another tangent on holder psychology:

What is this slave mentality? The governments are not our parents giving us "allowances", they exist to serve the people and they're doing a damn bad job these days. It's time to separate money and state!

[cypherdoc]

It's nothing less than naive idealism to assume that Bitcoin will be allowed to go around unchecked by governments. They will not allow it.

Here's another tangent on holder psychology:

What is this slave mentality? The governments are not our parents giving us "allowances", they exist to serve the people and they're doing a damn bad job these days. It's time to separate money and state!

like i said, it's a religion.

[Keyser Soze]

I am a hodler because I am not interested in the short term price movements. Fundamentals of Bitcoin have not changed, no reason to change the course.

[molecular]

It's nothing less than naive idealism to assume that Bitcoin will be allowed to go around unchecked by governments. They will not allow it.

Here's another tangent on holder psychology:

What is this slave mentality? The governments are not our parents giving us "allowances", they exist to serve the people and they're doing a damn bad job these days. It's time to separate money and state!

like i said, it's a religion.

look to the left... I'm a very religious guy.

[BitCoinsLOL]

First of all: I'm no hodler. I cashed out when things got a bit too scary for my taste. Second of all: I feel bad for everyone that has lost money or is on the verge of losing money. You have my sympathy.

Bitcoin is in a prominent bear market at the moment and the current exchange rate might just be a pitstop on the road downwards. What amazes me however is that so many people, people that can actually read a chart, really feel entitled to another quadruple digit rally. Wait, check that. They are sure it is going to happen. Even amidst the chaos of the last days I can still see people claiming that it will reach 10.000 dollars; some even say it will reach that number in three months already.

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in. Some seem to be even more devoted to their own religion of Bitcoinism than the pope is committed to the Roman Catholic Church.  I believe this to be a very dangerous attitude, given the risks involved. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a few posters on these boards are all in with all their life savings - or have even indebted themselves - and are sure shitting themselves at this moment. It might be a religious, god revering response to look up and say to yourself: 'Everything will be all right, I just know it'. They discard any possibility that some guy will come around with a new, superior protocol in as short as the next few years and just blatantly ignore the fact that Bitcoin is not alive at all among the vast majority of the population. Next to that: they probably have a good feeling that governments will not allow capital to flow unrestricted and out of their scope, but still they ignore it.

Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

You cashed out when things got a bit scary and now you want to talk about the psychology of a holder. Stop IT!

[yenom]

What are these fundamentals and how are they getting stronger?

I assume you are trolling, in case you're not, have a look here. http://www.bitcoinpulse.com/

[piramida]

Take a look at the holders and more often than not their activity level on his forum is in the 500+ range. This is an indicator that they have been with Bitcoin since early 2012 or 2011 and in some cases 2010 or even 2009. This means they initially got into Bitcoin in the single digits or below in some cases cents or even fraction of a cent.

I suspect in addition most of the following is true:
They have managed to keep a significant portion of their initial bitcoin, other wise they would not still be around.
They have sold the rest at a sizeable profit in fiat terms but at prices far below the current market, low double digits, single digits, even below etc, and deeply regret having done so.
They have more than taken out their initial fiat investment.
They have sizeable unrealised capital gains in bitcoin that would trigger a very ugly tax bill should they sell. The depends on the jurisdiction, but would require a drop in the market in many cases over 30% just to break even.
They have been through multiple bit bull and bit bear markets.
Bitcoin may account for a very significant portion if not the majority of their net worth.
They have done their research and believe there is a very high likelihood that bitcoin will appreciate by a few orders of magnitude higher in the coming years.
They have been exposed to one or more of the following MTGox, Bitcoinica, pirateat40, another failed exchange, wallet service etc. They may have escaped unscathed or suffered a loss. This will lead to an increase fear of trusting their BTC to any exchange.  
They can sleep better, and have lower blood pressure, being long in a bear market than short in a bull market.  

All of this leads to a very high perceived risk of selling vs the possible gain of buying back at a much lower price. So the safe strategy is HOLD.

   ________
  |        |
  |        |
   \      /
    |    |___________________________
    |    |                           |
    |    |___________________________|
    |    |
   /      \
  |        |  <---- hammer
  |________|

<== THWACK! ==>
     ____
      ||   
      ||
      ||      <---- nail
      ||
      ||
      \/

confirmed. I also like the reversed fear/greed comment, makes sense. I really do feel my money are safer in bitcoin, no matter what the price is currently doing. Just learn to put it in before bitcoin rallies not jump on when it is peaking, that would also give you a peace of mind. So if somebody buys now, he'll be a happy hodler during the next rally, simple, if he manages to live through the scared hodler phaze first

[lemfuture]

i get annoyed when i see and read the world hodl, kinda like how brian from family guy hate when stewie mentions "cool hwip"

[agf]

First of all: I'm no hodler. I cashed out when things got a bit too scary for my taste. Second of all: I feel bad for everyone that has lost money or is on the verge of losing money. You have my sympathy.

Bitcoin is in a prominent bear market at the moment and the current exchange rate might just be a pitstop on the road downwards. What amazes me however is that so many people, people that can actually read a chart, really feel entitled to another quadruple digit rally. Wait, check that. They are sure it is going to happen. Even amidst the chaos of the last days I can still see people claiming that it will reach 10.000 dollars; some even say it will reach that number in three months already.

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in. Some seem to be even more devoted to their own religion of Bitcoinism than the pope is committed to the Roman Catholic Church.  I believe this to be a very dangerous attitude, given the risks involved. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a few posters on these boards are all in with all their life savings - or have even indebted themselves - and are sure shitting themselves at this moment. It might be a religious, god revering response to look up and say to yourself: 'Everything will be all right, I just know it'. They discard any possibility that some guy will come around with a new, superior protocol in as short as the next few years and just blatantly ignore the fact that Bitcoin is not alive at all among the vast majority of the population. Next to that: they probably have a good feeling that governments will not allow capital to flow unrestricted and out of their scope, but still they ignore it.

Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

It is a forum, 100, 200, 500 people claiming bitcoin will hit $100.000. You will find the same mania in other forums, just different subject.

[xDan]

First of all: I'm no hodler. I cashed out when things got a bit too scary for my taste. Second of all: I feel bad for everyone that has lost money or is on the verge of losing money. You have my sympathy.

Bitcoin is in a prominent bear market at the moment and the current exchange rate might just be a pitstop on the road downwards. What amazes me however is that so many people, people that can actually read a chart, really feel entitled to another quadruple digit rally. Wait, check that. They are sure it is going to happen. Even amidst the chaos of the last days I can still see people claiming that it will reach 10.000 dollars; some even say it will reach that number in three months already.

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in. Some seem to be even more devoted to their own religion of Bitcoinism than the pope is committed to the Roman Catholic Church.  I believe this to be a very dangerous attitude, given the risks involved. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a few posters on these boards are all in with all their life savings - or have even indebted themselves - and are sure shitting themselves at this moment. It might be a religious, god revering response to look up and say to yourself: 'Everything will be all right, I just know it'. They discard any possibility that some guy will come around with a new, superior protocol in as short as the next few years and just blatantly ignore the fact that Bitcoin is not alive at all among the vast majority of the population. Next to that: they probably have a good feeling that governments will not allow capital to flow unrestricted and out of their scope, but still they ignore it.

Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

Because Bitcoin really is such a ground breaking system. Like internet in early days, we won't see the true innovations that are going to result for years or even decades. But they *will* result.

This isn't mindless religion; this reasonable appreciation of a genius innovation and new paradigm for programmable money.

The only possible worry is that a different crypto could take over, but with spin-offs and two way pegging this is appearing more and more unlikely.

Edit: Oh, and for anybody in over a year, Bitcoin is still up at least, what, 500%? There's simply no cause for concern for any HODLers.

[Junko]

Same old story, different OP.

From the weak and scared hands into those of the strong and brave. EZ game.

[BittBurger]

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in.

Oh no.  Its not a religious devotion.  Its fact-based rational confidence.  Knowing all the latest news.  Speeches at the most recent conferences.  Hours spent listening to the latest Podcasts from Lets Talk Bitcoin.  Hearing what is going on in adoption around the world.  Interviews with the people in Africa lobbying the Govt for Bitcoin assimilation.  Argentina.  Canada.  Europe. Singapore. Knowing about Bitcoin 2.0 projects.  Images on Twitter of 400 new ATMs about to go live in Dubai. Following Ben Lawsky on twitter.  Hearing the latest sales numbers from Overstock and TigerDirect.  Being the first to know about Square.  St Louis Fed Reserve rep comments.  The senator who put together the "Bitcoin is Currency" bill he planned to bring before the govt. 

Because of the obvious massive adoption and growth going on, I know that "holding" will pay off one day.  There is absolutely no reason for anyone to be cashing out yet.  None.  Doing so reflects a complete lack of awareness of what media outlets like LTB and Coinsider This are trying to convey to all of us.  

The day I get the true vibe that the infrastructure is beginning to fail, is the day I cash out.  I continue to be bewildered by the sheer volume of people on this website who have absolutely no knowledge of whats going on out there in infrastructure and adoption.  If you guys put more effort into knowing whats happening, you would have the rational confidence necessary to be a holder too.

-B-

[uhoh]

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in.

Oh no.  Its not a religious devotion.  Its a devotion based on actual information.  Facts.  Speeches at the most recent conferences.  Hours spent listening to the latest Podcasts from Lets Talk Bitcoin.  Hearing what is going on in adoption around the world.  Interviews with the people in Africa lobbying the Govt for Bitcoin assimilation.  Argentina.  Canada.  Europe.  Knowing about Bitcoin 2.0 projects.  ATM installations.  Images on Twitter of 400 new ATMs about to go live in Dubai.  Staying abreast of the latest news.  

Because of the obvious massive adoption and growth going on, I know that "holding" will pay off one day.  There is absolutely no reason for anyone to be cashing out yet.  None.  Doing so reflects a complete lack of awareness of what media outlets like LTB and Coinsider This are trying to convey to all of us. 

The day I get the true vibe that the infrastructure is beginning to fail, is the day I cash out.  It makes absolutely NO SENSE to cash out before then.  I continue to be bewildered by the sheer volume of people on this website who have absolutely no knowledge of whats going on out there in infrastructure and adoption.  Who is attending these international conferences, and what's being said.  If you guys put more effort into knowing whats happening, you would never have cashed out yet.  Not even once.

-B-

Must agree, there has never been a more obscene time to get out of Bitcoin than right now.

In regards the point about people spouting random price targets; when we were at $13 last January people were shouting that BTC will be at $1000 by years end. I thought they were crazy.