Survey time! Was 340 the final bottom?

[oda.krell]

You get the idea. After visiting 63 USD (stamp) in July 2013, we never went that low again (cough except for gox traders of course, who got near). Which makes it the bottom of the previous post-ATH downtrend. What about 340 yesterday? Bottom or not?

In case you wonder, I'm asking the question not because I believe it can tell us much about the future (i.e. I'm not trying to gauge this mythical "sentiment" that supposedly tells us when a correction is over), but because I'd like to come back to this poll during the *next* bubble. Think of it as an amusing little experiment that we can look at again in a year or two, and draw some conclusions then perhaps.


EDIT: btw, I will lock the poll after 24h, so we get a proper snapshot of the sentiment immediately after the drop.

EDIT 2: poll is locked now.

We went from a ratio slightly above 2:1 in favor of "it was the bottom" to slightly below 2:1 now. A pretty clear signal that the forum thinks the bottom is in.

I plan to ask this question again in the future during the next bottom (whenever that may be), and ultimately make it a series of polls... the plan is that maybe we are getting some interesting information about the relationship between forum sentiment and market action

Final EDIT: For some reason it seems that, once the poll is locked, others can't view the results anymore... so here's a screencap of the final result:

[1715562223]

1715562223

[1715562223]

1715562223

[1715562223]

1715562223

[1715562223]

1715562223

[tacotime]

In 2011, after the first major bubble, the price went from $35 to $2.  The corresponding drop from the peak of $1,200 would be $68.57, but it's likely that the trough will be higher this time due to more widespread knowledge of cryptocurrencies.

[Wolf Rainer]

This could be a beartrap, look at the charts...

[podyx]

$340 is a great fucking price to buy in at

I seriously doubt we gonna see it again

[oda.krell]

In 2011, after the first major bubble, the price went from $35 to $2.  The corresponding drop from the peak of $1,200 would be $68.57, but it's likely that the trough will be higher this time due to more widespread knowledge of cryptocurrencies.

Top was 32, I think. But agreed, I'd be very surprised if we would see a corresponding decline of (1/2)^4 like back then, considering that the run-up to 1200 saw a much smaller increase. For comparison, I like to think of the 2013 decline as (approximately) halving twice 260, 130, ~65.

[tacotime]

^^ You're right, it's almost 32

2011-06-08 00:00:00   23.9999   31.9099   22.2135   29.6   104925.16   2858820.38   27.25

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

[MatTheCat]

You get the idea. After visiting 63 USD (stamp) in July 2013, we never went that low again (cough except for gox traders of course, who got near). Which makes it the bottom of the previous post-ATH downtrend. What about 340 yesterday? Bottom or not?

In case you wonder, I'm asking the question not because I believe it can tell us much about the future (i.e. I'm not trying to gauge this mythical "sentiment" that supposedly tells us when a correction is over), but because I'd like to come back to this poll during the *next* bubble. Think of it as an amusing little experiment that we can look at again in a year or two, and draw some conclusions then perhaps.


EDIT: btw, I will lock the poll after 24h, so we get a proper snapshot of the sentiment immediately after the drop.

No fkn chance.....

....and since the majority are always wrong.....

[bitcoinsrus]

You get the idea. After visiting 63 USD (stamp) in July 2013, we never went that low again (cough except for gox traders of course, who got near). Which makes it the bottom of the previous post-ATH downtrend. What about 340 yesterday? Bottom or not?

In case you wonder, I'm asking the question not because I believe it can tell us much about the future (i.e. I'm not trying to gauge this mythical "sentiment" that supposedly tells us when a correction is over), but because I'd like to come back to this poll during the *next* bubble. Think of it as an amusing little experiment that we can look at again in a year or two, and draw some conclusions then perhaps.


EDIT: btw, I will lock the poll after 24h, so we get a proper snapshot of the sentiment immediately after the drop.

No fkn chance.....

....and since the majority are always wrong.....

Matt is back!

[JustAnotherSheep]

I highly doubt it. Far more likely this is just a retrace, and soon we'll be breaking new lows.

[infofront]

A $340 bottom would be fairly consistent with the past drops from ATHs.

What confuses me is that the very bearish sentiment almost approached the point of being a bullish indicator, but we never really saw "blood in the streets". In other words, I don't think we reached a psychological bottom that would likely correspond to a fiat price bottom, IMO.

I'm very cautiously starting to take a long position again.

[oda.krell]

You get the idea. After visiting 63 USD (stamp) in July 2013, we never went that low again (cough except for gox traders of course, who got near). Which makes it the bottom of the previous post-ATH downtrend. What about 340 yesterday? Bottom or not?

In case you wonder, I'm asking the question not because I believe it can tell us much about the future (i.e. I'm not trying to gauge this mythical "sentiment" that supposedly tells us when a correction is over), but because I'd like to come back to this poll during the *next* bubble. Think of it as an amusing little experiment that we can look at again in a year or two, and draw some conclusions then perhaps.


EDIT: btw, I will lock the poll after 24h, so we get a proper snapshot of the sentiment immediately after the drop.

No fkn chance.....

....and since the majority are always wrong.....

See, but that'll be the fun part. In 3 years from now, when we drop from 9k to 4k, I will ask again "did we hit rock bottom". Then I'll dig up this thread as well and... won't be able to conclude anything... damn. I must have missed a step

[Tzupy]

Of course not. It may be the local bottom of the second leg (if it got truncated) of wave C, but the third leg (and most powerful) is yet to come.
Just look at the volume, it's not even close to what a final bottom should look like. And the ask sum on Bitstamp is too small for the final bottom.
When the piglets will squeal 'Bitcoin is dead!', 'it's going to zero!', then you'll know that the final bottom is near.  

[podyx]

Bears on very thin ice currently

[hd060053]

yes it was the bottom, the quick recovery indicates it.

smart money buys as soon as possible.

[oda.krell]

Don't forget to vote, please.

The idea is to get a quantitative snapshot of forum sentiment for posterity, not so much a qualitative one (i.e. stuff your arguments for why it's over or not ), according to my half-arsed idea of a longer running experiment.

[malykii]

I have no clue, but it would suck to have missed out on the bottom.  I have been on the sidelines watching and waiting for the so called " blood in the streets " to happen, but it didn't seem like that was it. 

[njcarlos]

No, not the bottom. There is not enough inbound capital to sustain this valuation, and the lower it goes the more that sideline capital waiting to get in will turn to scared money. I think we'll need to see a good month of lateral stability before you can call it a bottom.

[serenitys]

Low 4's is still good though, compared to the almost 500 earlier last week. Given the overall upswing and time of year, you still have a good buy in price now.

[njcarlos]

We'll be going lower, patience is a virtue.

[serenitys]

I was finally able to jump in at just under 400 though but I do hope it goes lower so I can pick up more.