Survey time! Was 340 the final bottom?

[Pruden]

Of course not. It may be the local bottom of the second leg (if it got truncated) of wave C, but the third leg (and most powerful) is yet to come.
Just look at the volume, it's not even close to what a final bottom should look like. And the ask sum on Bitstamp is too small for the final bottom.
When the piglets will squeal 'Bitcoin is dead!', 'it's going to zero!', then you'll know that the final bottom is near.  

Dude, 300kBTC changed hands in 36 hours. Have you noticed the market is fragmented with 3 big players and several others with significant volume? http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Days with 24-hour volume higher than 200kBTC were scarce in MtGox monopoly time. Noticeably higher volume than in previous bottom: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-08-01zeg2013-03-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

The volume yesterday was noticeably higher than in previous, $460 bottom. Therefore, volume-wise we are at the equivalent to Nov'11. There, I said it.  

[1715079231]

1715079231

[Alonzo Ewing]

Yes.

You don't need absolute bearish sentiment ,I.e., a majority. You simply need relative bearish sentiment, I.e., worse than at any point (or close to it) since the $1150 peak.

[piramida]

even if it was not, it was very close. we might dip to 300, even 280, but the rebound would be ferocious. we might never go there again, and just sit in 380-420 region for a while just like last summer. or we might sharply correct to 600-800 region if there is some sustainable china resolution.

[oda.krell]

Of course not. It may be the local bottom of the second leg (if it got truncated) of wave C, but the third leg (and most powerful) is yet to come.
Just look at the volume, it's not even close to what a final bottom should look like. And the ask sum on Bitstamp is too small for the final bottom.
When the piglets will squeal 'Bitcoin is dead!', 'it's going to zero!', then you'll know that the final bottom is near.  

Dude, 300kBTC changed hands in 36 hours. Have you noticed the market is fragmented with 3 big players and several others with significant volume? http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Days with 24-hour volume higher than 200kBTC were scarce in MtGox monopoly time. Noticeably higher volume than in previous bottom: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-08-01zeg2013-03-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

The volume yesterday was noticeably higher than in previous, $460 bottom. Therefore, volume-wise we are at the equivalent to Nov'11. There, I said it.  

"300k BTC changed hands"?

"Higher volume than previous bottom"?

Oh, you're counting Chinese volume 1:1. I wouldn't do that. Here's what I think matters, volume wise:

[DustyRah]

Anything in $3xx is a great deal to pick up those coins...its bottomed out nicely and expect a run up sooner or later. Now is the time to buy back in!

[damiano]

No blood in the streets.

Still bearish and not bottom.

[frozenminer]

hunting for bears today and cant find any can you point me to them?

[bitcoinsrus]

hunting for bears today and cant find any can you point me to them?

we got a few laying the grass 

[Kramerc]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2013-03-11zeg2013-08-12ztgMzm1g10zm2g25zv

In retrospect of the april bubble, we can notice how the volume peaked during the reversal, and then subsequently decreased as time went by. If we factor in that a lot of people have lost confidence in exchanges, and that by now, most of the weak hands have been shaken off their coins, I simply don't see how we could have days with more than 100kBTC traded on stamp or btc-e anymore, at least for the short-term.

[Pruden]

Of course not. It may be the local bottom of the second leg (if it got truncated) of wave C, but the third leg (and most powerful) is yet to come.
Just look at the volume, it's not even close to what a final bottom should look like. And the ask sum on Bitstamp is too small for the final bottom.
When the piglets will squeal 'Bitcoin is dead!', 'it's going to zero!', then you'll know that the final bottom is near.  

Dude, 300kBTC changed hands in 36 hours. Have you noticed the market is fragmented with 3 big players and several others with significant volume? http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Days with 24-hour volume higher than 200kBTC were scarce in MtGox monopoly time. Noticeably higher volume than in previous bottom: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-08-01zeg2013-03-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

The volume yesterday was noticeably higher than in previous, $460 bottom. Therefore, volume-wise we are at the equivalent to Nov'11. There, I said it.  

"300k BTC changed hands"?

"Higher volume than previous bottom"?

Oh, you're counting Chinese volume 1:1. I wouldn't do that. Here's what I think matters, volume wise:

Sorry, I didn't finish editing my previous post.

No, I am not counting Huobi et al, their volume is fake. I am combining Bitstamp, BTC-e and Bitfinex and adding 20kBTC for good measure of the mid-sized exchanges like BTC-China, Kraken, etc. Added, they had 160kBTC 24-hour volume at the $460 bottom and 200k now, which has been sustained for almost a day, making it more like 300kBTC.

EDIT: And thanks for the charts, I hadn't noticed today's green candle has as much volume as yesterday's red one, which makes it different from the previous bottoms you are comparing it to.   

[Bit_Happy]

We could re-test 340 and maybe go a little lower.
If you are not "almost all in" at ~$351, then you are doing something wrong.
Buy BTC...

[oda.krell]

Sorry, I didn't finish editing my previous post.

No, I am not counting Huobi et al, their volume is fake. I am combining Bitstamp, BTC-e and Bitfinex and adding 20kBTC for good measure of the mid-sized exchanges like BTC-China, Kraken, etc. Added, they had 160kBTC 24-hour volume at the $460 bottom and 200k now, which has been sustained for almost a day, making it more like 300kBTC.

EDIT: And thanks for the charts, I hadn't noticed today's green candle has as much volume as yesterday's red one, which makes it different from the previous bottoms you are comparing it to.   

Okay, I understand now. I still see a decline in volume (good view imo via short volume MA on tradingview) , but I guess time will tell

[_ajv_]

I think the capitulation is over and we have seen the bottom. Most of the weak hands have been shaken off yesterday and from now on the market is slowly building up momentum. To crash lower than 340$ again would require many whales to manipulate the market at the same time, or some really bad news to pop up unexpectedly. If I wasn't already all-in, I'd definitely go all-in NOW.

[atp1916]

I would dare say that the core fear driving all Chinese speculators or exchange owners was whether the PBOC was going to outlaw the exchanges themselves.  

If the exchanges are not banned, then Bitcoin actually does have a chance in China.

[cryptoart.com]

>>  but the rebound would be ferocious.

Nailed it.  I'd say we had a pretty quick rebound from 340.  

[SportsBet]

Suddenly the poll has no importance?

So far 2:1 say it was the bottom.

Do you think generally optimistic hodling bulls are majority in speculation forum?

[spazzdla]

We could re-test 340 and maybe go a little lower.
If you are not "almost all in" at ~$351, then you are doing something wrong.
Buy BTC...

Fine.. fine FINE, GOING TO THE EXCHANGE TONIGHT

[jdun]

Oh sad, I cannot vote. Yes I give it a 70% chance that it was the bottom considering the price now. If the price was sitting under 400 for the past day, then I would say No, it's going lower, but since it climbed up to 420-440 and has held that range, I think it is unlikely we'll retest 340-350 (unless of course, another HUGE piece of bad news ... like Jesus Christ sells all his bitcoin, or something).

[Ivanhoe]

Interesting poll results, especially when you know that the majority is always wrong...

Keep in mind that this is a bitcoin forum. People are generally bullish on bitcoin here. Imagine the same poll on yahoo.finance for example. Do you think we get the same results?

[Kramerc]

Interesting poll results, especially when you know that the majority is always wrong...

Keep in mind that this is a bitcoin forum. People are generally bullish on bitcoin here. Imagine the same poll on yahoo.finance for example. Do you think we get the same results?

How does surveying people who are not invested in bitcoin help the thread's cause?

That being said, I think the results are indeed a bit skewed, no matter what, since everyone here is a long-term bitbull.