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Author Topic: Speculation to currency rate  (Read 1971 times)
Findeton
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January 05, 2012, 01:44:37 PM
 #1

A buyer gets his sallary in dollars/euros/whatever. Then he converts it to bitcoins. Then he buys something in bitcoins. Then the seller cashes out the bitcoins into dollars/whatever again.

This is a complete dollar -> bitcoin -> dollar cycle.

If this was the main use of bitcoins (for the time being, it isn't), speculation would be somewhat limited. It would also expand the number of people using bitcoins. Let's face it, bitcoin is just another currency in the world, a very small one so the main use, apart from speculation, will be something like the cycle I described.

I thinkwe should all create local groups and meet together to support our cause... by convincing local shops to accept bitcoins (and teaching them how to use them) and buying things on those local shops. Meetings would be in bars and restaurants that would accept bitcoins. We should all buy everyday things with bitcoins. If we are willing to buy, sellers will automatically follow.

I say we should start convincing sellers by trying to buy somewhat expensive things with bitcoins. For example if you want to buy a guitar, buy it with bitcoins.

Perhaps speculation will be a predominant factor in the bitcoin economy, but bitcoins won't become a real currency unless people use them to buy stuff. I say we go local.

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January 05, 2012, 03:51:42 PM
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To be frank, and this will get me a LOT of sneering and bad attitudes...

Bitcoin needs to take the black market. Completely. One of the biggest (if not the biggest) trades globally is the drug trade. Now by 'drug trade' most people think of physical shipment, meeting dodgy people, handing over cash, getting unknown product. However, in the USA (I'm not American nor in the US, FWIW), the *prescription drug* market is a similarly huge trade.

And it's underground. Online pharmacies, etc. Anyone running their own email gets enough spam to know what most of them sell, but selling *prescription* versions of recreational drugs (painkillers, anxiolytics, stimulants, etc.) is a BIG business on the internet.

It's the middle class drug dealer network, basically. People want to pay conveniently and have pure, blister-pack drugs shipped in the mail to them - without a prescription.

This is illegal, but incredibly popular. For years, the trade has gone on using various methodologies to pay the vendors. Credit cards worked for a short while, then the big processors got shut down. Then chinese credit card processors stepped in, until a major one was shut down recently. The money-sending orgs like Western Union are massively used for this sort of trade, and as everyone knows, Western Union costs a fortune.

It's *big* business, and one seemingly ideally suited to Bitcoin. Yes, I'll get flamed for suggesting illegal use of the currency, but if you want it getting used widely and in quantity... it's manna from heaven for these guys AFAICT.

If anyone here uses internet pharmacies (legally or illegally) - I'd recommend asking them to accept BTC and telling them how to exchange the currencies as and when required. Yes, it's tantamount to money laundering but this depends on whether you view the USA drug laws as just or not... (this is for a different thread, of course).


Whether I get deleted or banned for this is irrelevant. This is one VERY big market that is ideally suited for Bitcoin use (remember that internet pharmacies are largely legal - but the dodgy ones are red-flagging the purely-legit non-prescription online pharmacies at all major banks, making transactions hard for everyone concerned). Most of the purchasers are computer literate (else they wouldn't be buying things off the internet), most are middle class and NOT consumers of street drugs, however sending cash in brown envelopes to random addresses is NOT an option, and paying Western Union fees stings.

Bitcoin solves this problem at a fell stroke. And the market isn't big enough to get the authorities to attempt to destroy Bitcoin. What makes this different from the Silk Road? Well - for a start, the customers are different... and more importantly, the vendor websites are *real internet shops*. The more 'real internet shops' taking Bitcoin are experienced by this large market of people, the more likely they are to use BTC for their other online purchases.

If I've broken rules, sorry, my hat was always a dark shade. But it's an opportunity to bag a large market in the USA and Europe due to the current state of the exchanges (CAAML? KYC? what's that then?). It won't be open long - as soon as BTC become accepted as a 'currency' then the exchanges will have to implement KYC and CAAML procedures and paying with BTC with the intention of cashing out into something else will become no different to anything else. But right now...

...so I give in to the rhythm, the click click clack
I'm too wasted to fight back...


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lonelyminer (Peter Šurda)
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January 05, 2012, 04:35:19 PM
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The main issue that I see with going for the prohibition market is that this undermines the attempts of Bitcoin to establish itself in other markets. I'm not going as far as saying that you can't have both at the same time, but there is a certain interrelationship. A lot of people support the war on drugs and so do the legislators. If Bitcoin tries to position itself in the prohibition markets, these people will be less inclined to use it and even attempt legislative attacks. The legislative attacks might not succeed (particularly if the fiat currencies collapse, as Schlichter rightfully pointed out during the panel talk at the Prague conference), but it's something to consider.

I just have one more remark. Some people, such as Dellingshausen claim that the price of Bitcoin will drop if declared illegal. This is by no means certain. As any economist should tell you, the price of goods during prohibition changes depending on the elasticity of demand and the availability of substitutes. If the other payment methods are burdened by regulations as well (and we know they are), and people still want drugs (they most likely will), then the price of Bitcoin should rise.
Findeton
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January 05, 2012, 07:27:41 PM
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To be frank, and this will get me a LOT of sneering and bad attitudes...

Bitcoin needs to take the black market. Completely. One of the biggest (if not the biggest) trades globally is the drug trade. Now by 'drug trade' most people think of physical shipment, meeting dodgy people, handing over cash, getting unknown product. However, in the USA (I'm not American nor in the US, FWIW), the *prescription drug* market is a similarly huge trade.

And it's underground. Online pharmacies, etc. Anyone running their own email gets enough spam to know what most of them sell, but selling *prescription* versions of recreational drugs (painkillers, anxiolytics, stimulants, etc.) is a BIG business on the internet.

It's the middle class drug dealer network, basically. People want to pay conveniently and have pure, blister-pack drugs shipped in the mail to them - without a prescription.

This is illegal, but incredibly popular. For years, the trade has gone on using various methodologies to pay the vendors. Credit cards worked for a short while, then the big processors got shut down. Then chinese credit card processors stepped in, until a major one was shut down recently. The money-sending orgs like Western Union are massively used for this sort of trade, and as everyone knows, Western Union costs a fortune.

It's *big* business, and one seemingly ideally suited to Bitcoin. Yes, I'll get flamed for suggesting illegal use of the currency, but if you want it getting used widely and in quantity... it's manna from heaven for these guys AFAICT.

If anyone here uses internet pharmacies (legally or illegally) - I'd recommend asking them to accept BTC and telling them how to exchange the currencies as and when required. Yes, it's tantamount to money laundering but this depends on whether you view the USA drug laws as just or not... (this is for a different thread, of course).

Don't be paranoid, you won't get banned, Anyways I have to say that the black market has to be careful, as bitcoins are NOT anonymous.

And, btw, we the bitcoiners cannot visually support the bitcoin economy with your approach. But we can try to buy normal things in our local shops with bitcoins. So let's do it!

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catfish
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January 05, 2012, 09:52:17 PM
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^^ what I was getting at was that the 'illegal' online pharmacy business is BIG business, and piggybacks onto the *legal* online pharmacy business (normal non-prescription products, beauty products, general healthcare etc.).

For those using *illegal* internet pharmacies (and there will be a few of them here) - evangelising Bitcoin to the 'dodgy' web shop owners - all of which are struggling with payment methods due to a certain chinese credit card processor and the infrastructure required to make Western Union payments feasible (loads of runners, effectively) - *may* get the 'dodgy' web shops to happily accept Bitcoin.

Like local - but with a subsequent avalanche of spread from the dodgy, to the semi-legal, to the legal, and then you'll have people asking why Boots (UK), Walgreens (US), etc. don't accept Bitcoin... certainly feasible.

Maybe I need more pills. Heh. Wink

...so I give in to the rhythm, the click click clack
I'm too wasted to fight back...


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January 06, 2012, 08:26:06 AM
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^^ what I was getting at was that the 'illegal' online pharmacy business is BIG business, and piggybacks onto the *legal* online pharmacy business (normal non-prescription products, beauty products, general healthcare etc.).

For those using *illegal* internet pharmacies (and there will be a few of them here) - evangelising Bitcoin to the 'dodgy' web shop owners - all of which are struggling with payment methods due to a certain chinese credit card processor and the infrastructure required to make Western Union payments feasible (loads of runners, effectively) - *may* get the 'dodgy' web shops to happily accept Bitcoin.

Like local - but with a subsequent avalanche of spread from the dodgy, to the semi-legal, to the legal, and then you'll have people asking why Boots (UK), Walgreens (US), etc. don't accept Bitcoin... certainly feasible.

Maybe I need more pills. Heh. Wink

Bitcoin is and will be used on the "darkside" whatever we do and I guess it can't hurt the cause.
But to encourage the use in that way or declaring it as "The currency of crime" ( as some would see it)
would just bring the authorities  might down on bitcoin as a whole in an attempt (although futile) to battle crime.
A while back there was an article on TV about "darknet" and they declared there that bitcoin was INVENTED just to
have a currency for all shady deals. We don't need that.

"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians."
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January 06, 2012, 05:14:46 PM
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A while back there was an article on TV about "darknet" and they declared there that bitcoin was INVENTED just to
have a currency for all shady deals. We don't need that.
You're right there. Sadly, journalists blow anything into extremes to get a story - but we can't do much about them so the best bet is to get the market to grow as fast as possible, because we already have plenty of legitimate business taking place using bitcoins. With counter-examples already in place, going after a big (but dodgy) market would increase volume.

Hasn't the 'BTC are for crime!!11!!11' hysteria already passed though? I'd guess that it's seen as somewhat grey-market but not universally criminal. And since this is true of the internet pharmacies too (only a proportion of their sales are illegal), it's not going to make the image of BTC any *worse* than it currently is. If anything, endorsement by the major legit online pharmacy business (Boots, etc.) would clean up the reputation...

Remember I'm talking about businesses with accessible web shops, that used to be able to run credit card merchant accounts - not email-only Silk Road type blatantly illegal operations. It wasn't the products sold that caused the credit card problems - a lot of it was down to chargebacks by customers of rip-off merchants. The banks couldn't tell which companies were going to suddenly disappear with the money so they put pharmacies on the 'high risk' client list. Interestingly, accountants are on it, too.

And if we're talking about companies that one used to be able to pay by CC, will the general public consider these 'black market'?

I hear what you're saying, completely, and agree with you. But it's a nice easy target with a large market value and large number of participants. It's not a market that can be shut down by taking out a few key players, and the customers are worldwide *and the types who have HAD to learn the technical skills required to run Bitcoin* - hence the adoption rate should be fast and high.

It's just a question of getting the vendors to accept the currency. Even if they always immediately cash out into fiat currency, the fact that the customers need to buy BTC to trade means that this should increase the velocity of money in the BTC economy.

What would be interesting is which way it'd push the BTC price against major currencies. If each customer took care to buy BTC as cheaply as possible, whereas the vendors simply cashed out at market rate whenever they received payment, then you'd expect BTC prices to go down... until the vendors stopped seeing BTC as a proxy to whatever cash they normally use, and started saving / spending their own BTC.

I'd say that when there's significant B2B transacting taking place in BTC, we've got a *real* currency going. Given the multi-layer 'affiliate' schemes often associated with the pharmacy business, this sounds like a real opportunity to kick-start widescale adoption. The proposal is perhaps a bit too much like 'ends justify the means' for some peoples' stomachs, and I can empathise with this. Nobody wants BTC to be associated *primarily* with organised crime.

Then again, what's the first thing you think of when you hear the words 'Swiss bank account'? Has it hurt the Swiss? Apart from recent illegal data theft by Germany and the bankrupt USA flexing its muscles, not much. The Eurozone debt crisis is hurting the Swiss economy MUCH more than any perception of its *independent* currency.

And that's what will cause problems with BTC - it'll have to trade with other currencies and the competitive devaluation taking place in fiat currencies will push the BTC price up, slowing trade down as people hoard BTC. That's the biggest problem - and we're back in a circle to the OP's original premise - how to get people *spending* BTC.

It's hard to spend BTC when you're watching a graph of it going straight up...

...so I give in to the rhythm, the click click clack
I'm too wasted to fight back...


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molecular
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January 08, 2012, 05:05:36 PM
 #8

The main issue that I see with going for the prohibition market is that this undermines the attempts of Bitcoin to establish itself in other markets. I'm not going as far as saying that you can't have both at the same time, but there is a certain interrelationship. A lot of people support the war on drugs and so do the legislators. If Bitcoin tries to position itself in the prohibition markets, these people will be less inclined to use it and even attempt legislative attacks. The legislative attacks might not succeed (particularly if the fiat currencies collapse, as Schlichter rightfully pointed out during the panel talk at the Prague conference), but it's something to consider.

firstly, let me answer to catfish: you should not be ashamed for predicting and/or suggesting bitcoin conquer some illegal markets. You're not promoting breaking the law, so why should you get banned here? Even high profile politicians do this: http://falkvinge.net/2011/06/16/bitcoins-four-drivers-part-one-unlawful-trade/

lonelyminer: As you know, I have high respect for your opinions. I'm not sure about this one, though. I lean a little bit to the other side, thinking that bitcoin being used for unlawful trade will not by default have a negative impact on it's success (namely it's use in other, more legit markets).

Let's assume for a second that bitcoin is used widely in unlawfull black markets (drugs, botnets, services, human traficking, human organs, whatever sick shit you can think of). I'm assuming it already is being used in some of these, just not widely. Now the prohibition of use in other markets would have to take the way of either a) shaping public opinion negatively (smear campaign) or b) legal action.

b) will fail to take down the currency itself, of course, because bitcoin is specifically designed to withstand such attacks. I think it will also fail to make a big enough dent into legitimacy of "legal bitcoin use". I just cannot imagine "bitcoin being made completely illegal everywhere". This might be some sort of a gray area and this attack then becomes more like a), an attack on trust.

as for a), let me argue that we have seen this on a smaller scale already (remembers the congress member xzy talking about silkroad/bitcoin/(tor)). This was during the summer bubble time. Now one could argue that the slow steady decline of bitcoins price (an indicator for its success) is at least partly due to that negative press. I think, however, that the mybitcoin fiasko and gox hack (however unfair towards bitcoin itself) had a much greater share in the doomsday reporting by media. Did silkroad have negative impact on actual "bitcoin use in other markets"? I think you'd have a hard time arguing this.

So in summary I fail to fully see that use in unlawful markets would prevent bitcoins adoption in other markets. I'm not dismissing the reasoning, just leaning to the other side thinking: "noone cares USD cash is used for drug trade, why would anybody care in the bitcoin case, as long as it has relatively stable value". I for one would put much trust into bitcoins value if the mafia or any such "organization" used it for inter-familiy bookkeeping and/or store of wealth and/or trade and/or settlement of debt.

After all: Geld stinkt nicht. ("money doesn't smell")

EDIT: I do not promote illegal activity.

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January 08, 2012, 05:10:53 PM
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A while back there was an article on TV about "darknet" and they declared there that bitcoin was INVENTED just to
have a currency for all shady deals. We don't need that.

So what? A lot of cool, now-used-by-everyones-grandma technologies where matured by the filthy porn industry, right? Does grandma care when browsing youtube? No.

"If shady criminals can trust bitcoin, so can I". Criminals are careful people, at least the ones outside of jail.

EDIT: I do not promote illegal activity.

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January 09, 2012, 01:51:27 AM
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designed in 20 mins. I love the idea behind this and would love to start up a project with a few select individuals.



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January 09, 2012, 06:17:46 AM
 #11

Interesting discussion
I think Catfish was correct to "merely" insinuate his post could be flagged for deletion.

Some people here think of the Bitcoin economy as something of much greater importance than a simple replacement for fiat currencies.

We should all modulate our thinking so that bitcoin is being perceived as legal and a cause worth defending.
Unlike what most users of this forum think, Bitcoin is very young and extremely vulnerable.

These black usages are not desirable but will happen. For now, I would suggest moderators/owner do their best to state clearly not to promote illegal or borderline immoral stuff on this forum.

At this time, I would be very cautious with the "Any publicity is good publicity" adage.
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January 10, 2012, 11:05:35 AM
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lonelyminer: As you know, I have high respect for your opinions. I'm not sure about this one, though. I lean a little bit to the other side, thinking that bitcoin being used for unlawful trade will not by default have a negative impact on it's success (namely it's use in other, more legit markets).
Thank you molecular, the feeling is mutual.

However, I think I wasn't successful in explaining myself. I agree with everything you say. But my point is that a lot of people do not think logically and their opinions are rather formed by various emotions, dogmas and so on. These are the object of my objection. Not the rationally thinking guy that realises, to use an analogy, that "guns don't kill people, people kill people". A lot of people support policies even though they cannot defend them intellectually.

Even if you, for example, dislike the effects of drugs, prohibition is an unsuitable method to counter them. This is analysed for example by Mark Thornton in The Economics of Prohibition. To support prohibition due to not liking drugs is illogical. Nevertheless, considerable parts of the populace support drug prohibition.

I could go on about all kinds of other topics which are even more controversial. It's the irrational that I'm cautioning against.

Or to put it into other words, I'm not talking about economics, I'm talking about a marketing strategy.
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January 10, 2012, 12:11:41 PM
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However, I think I wasn't successful in explaining myself. I agree with everything you say. But my point is that a lot of people do not think logically and their opinions are rather formed by various emotions, dogmas and so on.

I keep forgetting to factor human psychology into my analyses. For example after the gox hack, I held on to my bitcoins, thinking: "Fundamentals still sound, these idiots just dont get it, bitcoin will come back, I stay long". Instead I should've thought: "These idiots will keep selling for a while, I better sell 50% and buy back in when the mood swings up again".

Trying to learn this lesson... still not sure of the impact to your argument, will need to rethink.

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lonelyminer (Peter Šurda)
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January 10, 2012, 12:59:10 PM
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For example after the gox hack, I held on to my bitcoins, thinking: "Fundamentals still sound, these idiots just dont get it, bitcoin will come back, I stay long". Instead I should've thought: "These idiots will keep selling for a while, I better sell 50% and buy back in when the mood swings up again".
This is a good example. While I am not entirely sure the gox hack was the reason for the trend reversal, at least I agree that the argument makes sense.
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January 12, 2012, 12:05:47 PM
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For example after the gox hack, I held on to my bitcoins, thinking: "Fundamentals still sound, these idiots just dont get it, bitcoin will come back, I stay long". Instead I should've thought: "These idiots will keep selling for a while, I better sell 50% and buy back in when the mood swings up again".
This is a good example. While I am not entirely sure the gox hack was the reason for the trend reversal, at least I agree that the argument makes sense.
Yeah, it surely wasn't only the gox hack. the mybitcoin fiasco, people lossing money, malware showing up and bad press ("bitcoin is dead") in general. all the doomsayers. idiots in forums, it just drew the whole crowd down, friggin' lemmings jumping off cliff.

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January 13, 2012, 09:49:11 PM
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I keep forgetting to factor human psychology into my analyses. For example after the gox hack, I held on to my bitcoins, thinking: "Fundamentals still sound, these idiots just dont get it, bitcoin will come back, I stay long". Instead I should've thought: "These idiots will keep selling for a while, I better sell 50% and buy back in when the mood swings up again".

Problem is that no one knows when the mood changes. Was the rise from $25 to $30 permanent? Was the drop from $30 to $20 a trend or temporary setback? Was the bottom at $17, $12, $10, $5, $3, or $2.50? Is the rise we are seeing now a rebound, or another short bubble that's going to burst in a week or two? I don't think anyone really knows or could've correctly predicted that, and we only now know this after the fact. My thought has been, and still is, "Fundamentals are sound, these idiots just don't get it, and although it sucks that I've lost a lot on my initial investment, they're just giving me more time to buy cheap as an 'early adopter'." So I've been continuing to buy every few weeks, regardless if the price is $17 or $2.50, though another reason was my fear of missing a huge rebound that no one predicted. Another benefit is that buying low averages out my loss, and has brought my break even amount from $18.50 to just under$10.
Remember when the economy crashed in 2008? A LOT of people freaked out and moved to bonds when their portfolios lost half their value. They locked in their losses and only made back a pittance on small bond returns, while stocks rallied back up later that spring, restoring most of the losses of those who kept holding (this was often in the news, about skiddish people complaining about losing their retirement savings). Had people sold 50% of their bitcoin after the decline, they may have lost the same way, and I suspect there a few who bought for a higher amount and freaked out when the price dropped to $2.50, thinking it'll go under $1 and converting to USD, only to lock in their losses and miss the jump to $6.50.

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January 13, 2012, 11:38:25 PM
 #17

Remember when the economy crashed in 2008? A LOT of people freaked out and moved to bonds when their portfolios lost half their value. They locked in their losses and only made back a pittance on small bond returns, ...

exactly, you don't loose anything when the value of a commodity you hold on the exchanges drops, you loose when you sell them at that low price.

"Hold on to your hat and bitcoins and prepare for a wild ride" (something I might have heard back in summer), might turn out to not have been such a bad idea in the end.

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