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Author Topic: How about this Bitcoinica strategy?  (Read 2888 times)
Crypt_Current
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January 06, 2012, 07:31:17 AM
 #1

http://www.mediafire.com/imageview.php?quickkey=1j0o0m1qhmfdqdn

I thought it was rather clever, considering where I think price is headed.  Whaddya think?

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Crypt_Current
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January 06, 2012, 07:34:21 AM
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This photo is NOT edited, BTW...

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January 06, 2012, 07:35:55 AM
 #3



I thought it was rather clever, considering where I think price is headed.  Whaddya think?

Can't see it... redirects to a login page.

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January 06, 2012, 07:37:23 AM
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ah, lame sauce.  let me fix that

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January 06, 2012, 07:42:29 AM
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goddammit, adrive.com sucks

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Matthew N. Wright
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January 06, 2012, 07:44:01 AM
 #6

Best Bitcoinica strategy = owning it.

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January 06, 2012, 07:47:39 AM
 #7

Best Bitcoinica strategy = owning it.

Well, that option is only available to one individual right now, who may at a later date change that option.
Being a user or not are my only other options.
So, from a user's pov.

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January 06, 2012, 07:52:39 AM
 #8



I thought it was rather clever, considering where I think price is headed.  Whaddya think?

Image should appear now.  Please let me know if it doesn't.

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January 06, 2012, 07:53:31 AM
 #9



I thought it was rather clever, considering where I think price is headed.  Whaddya think?

Image should appear now.  Please let me know if it doesn't.

It doesn't... still a login page.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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Matthew N. Wright
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January 06, 2012, 08:11:49 AM
 #10



I thought it was rather clever, considering where I think price is headed.  Whaddya think?

Image should appear now.  Please let me know if it doesn't.
Perhaps, might I recommend imgur.com?

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January 06, 2012, 08:15:51 AM
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My general strategy is to take an expected future value, something simple like a linear interpolation from the past week or so. When the price jumps higher sell, when it's lower buy, but only a little bit. In the inevitable situation that the price jumps again, sell/buy more. Make sure you have enough reserves to double down 3 or 4 times. If you predict it wrong 4 times in a row, well then you lose.

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January 06, 2012, 08:18:33 AM
 #12

My general strategy is to take an expected future value, something simple like a linear interpolation from the past week or so. When the price jumps higher sell, when it's lower buy, but only a little bit. In the inevitable situation that the price jumps again, sell/buy more. Make sure you have enough reserves to double down 3 or 4 times. If you predict it wrong 4 times in a row, well then you lose.

Cool.  What i've done is i've created two accounts; one for my main longer term position, and another for a short position to hedge on the down spikes.  You might be able to see the photo now.  Thanks for the recommendation Matthew.  Sharing an image shouldn't be this difficult.  I need sleep badly.

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January 06, 2012, 08:37:49 AM
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My general strategy is to take an expected future value, something simple like a linear interpolation from the past week or so. When the price jumps higher sell, when it's lower buy, but only a little bit. In the inevitable situation that the price jumps again, sell/buy more. Make sure you have enough reserves to double down 3 or 4 times. If you predict it wrong 4 times in a row, well then you lose.
That's called Martingale strategy and is an absolutely certain (probability=100%) way for anyone to go bust. Read any book on trading.

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January 06, 2012, 08:44:16 AM
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Is anyone seeing a photo, like even if you click on the link in the OP ?  Just curious... it IS my thread about my AWESOME strategy I wanted to share... Roll Eyes  Grin  Wink

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January 06, 2012, 08:49:10 AM
 #15

You should buy back in before your profit evaporates.

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January 06, 2012, 08:56:37 AM
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My general strategy is to take an expected future value, something simple like a linear interpolation from the past week or so. When the price jumps higher sell, when it's lower buy, but only a little bit. In the inevitable situation that the price jumps again, sell/buy more. Make sure you have enough reserves to double down 3 or 4 times. If you predict it wrong 4 times in a row, well then you lose.
That's called Martingale strategy and is an absolutely certain (probability=100%) way for anyone to go bust. Read any book on trading.

I would say this is gambler's strategy.

With unlimited reserves and zero trade commissions, your overall winning is guaranteed.

With limited reserves and some trade commissions, your overall losing is guaranteed.

The chance of blind predicting wrong 4 times in a row is 1/16 and you would lose the entire investment. The profit of predicting correctly after 1, 2 or 3 jumps will always be less than 1/16 of your entire investment.

So:

P=15/16 -> profit less than 1/16
P=1/16 -> lose 1

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January 06, 2012, 09:03:12 AM
 #17

You should buy back in before your profit evaporates.

This is a short position, I bought back all but 1 at the bottom of the spike.  The idea is to keep it open so that when we spike back up, I can sell again, then buy out when we spike down again, lather rinse repeat.
I'm hoping that I understand the forced liquidation calculations enough to keep this hedging account from getting Zhoutonged.

  The profit is not really the point here; you could say I already locked in this profit by buying back in all but one.  AT least that's the way I'm understanding it right now -- I am very sleep deprived though.

Corrections are welcome, suggestions too.

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January 06, 2012, 09:06:18 AM
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My general strategy is to take an expected future value, something simple like a linear interpolation from the past week or so. When the price jumps higher sell, when it's lower buy, but only a little bit. In the inevitable situation that the price jumps again, sell/buy more. Make sure you have enough reserves to double down 3 or 4 times. If you predict it wrong 4 times in a row, well then you lose.

Have you ever played roulette?  On a French wheel you have approximately a 48% chance of winning by betting on red/black, high/low, etc.  I have seen someone lose 10 spins in a row.  Very unlikely, but it did occur.  Imagine if they tried to Martingale their bets.  They would either run out of money really quickly, or (100% likelyhood) hit the table's bet limit.

"In the inevitable situation that the price jumps again".  Why is it inevitable?

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January 06, 2012, 09:07:18 AM
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You should buy back in before your profit evaporates.

This is a short position, I bought back all but 1 at the bottom of the spike.  The idea is to keep it open so that when we spike back up, I can sell again, then buy out when we spike down again, lather rinse repeat.
I'm hoping that I understand the forced liquidation calculations enough to keep this hedging account from getting Zhoutonged.

  The profit is not really the point here; you could say I already locked in this profit by buying back in all but one.  AT least that's the way I'm understanding it right now -- I am very sleep deprived though.

Corrections are welcome, suggestions too.

I was making the (sarcastic) suggestion we would be passing $18 soon.  I believe your strategy is valid, although I don't see why you don't close out your position at the bottom and convert the profits to btc.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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Crypt_Current
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January 06, 2012, 09:14:11 AM
 #20

You should buy back in before your profit evaporates.

This is a short position, I bought back all but 1 at the bottom of the spike.  The idea is to keep it open so that when we spike back up, I can sell again, then buy out when we spike down again, lather rinse repeat.
I'm hoping that I understand the forced liquidation calculations enough to keep this hedging account from getting Zhoutonged.

  The profit is not really the point here; you could say I already locked in this profit by buying back in all but one.  AT least that's the way I'm understanding it right now -- I am very sleep deprived though.

Corrections are welcome, suggestions too.

I was making the (sarcastic) suggestion we would be passing $18 soon.  I believe your strategy is valid, although I don't see why you don't close out your position at the bottom and convert the profits to btc.

I did close it :-)
Reducing the position to one sort of "locks in" profits up to that point, then if the market surprises you you can use that last one to scrape out additional profits  Grin

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