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Author Topic: Exchange Market Report 25 July  (Read 2167 times)
BitCoinPurse
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July 25, 2010, 03:44:42 PM
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The end of the week saw a sharp decline in exchange prices from earlier in the week.  Both markets, Mt. Gox 24/7 Bitcoin Exchange (GOX), and the original Bitcoin Market (BCM) showed steep price drops (~-40%) with high Exchange rates from 0.087 - 0.093 USD/BTC down to 0.054 - 0.059 USD/BTC.

Based on historical prices from early July, the BC exchange rates have shown roughly a 10-fold increase in BTC market valuation (0.005 to 0.05).

Recent Bitcoin generation woes with the Pitock hubbub, and the recent Slashdotting of Bitcoin have led to high proof of work difficulties, and are the likely causes of the recent price bubble.

Ask to Bid volume ratios on GOX are currently running nearly 3 to 1 (Ask Volume: 9026.99  Bid Volume: 2893), down from a speculative high of about 4 to 1 on Saturday, and show the markets' need for BTC spending outlets.

The Bitcoin crypto-currency system has recently surpassed the 70,000 block milestone, leaving 3,500,000 potential BTC in existence with a current valuation of about $200,000 (USD).

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melvster
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July 25, 2010, 04:16:13 PM
 #2

The end of the week saw a sharp decline in exchange prices from earlier in the week.  Both markets, Mt. Gox 24/7 Bitcoin Exchange (GOX), and the original Bitcoin Market (BCM) showed steep price drops (~-40%) with high Exchange rates from 0.087 - 0.093 USD/BTC down to 0.054 - 0.059 USD/BTC.

Based on historical prices from early July, the BC exchange rates have shown roughly a 10-fold increase in BTC market valuation (0.005 to 0.05).

Recent Bitcoin generation woes with the Pitock hubbub, and the recent Slashdotting of Bitcoin have led to high proof of work difficulties, and are the likely causes of the recent price bubble.

Ask to Bid volume ratios on GOX are currently running nearly 3 to 1 (Ask Volume: 9026.99  Bid Volume: 2893), down from a speculative high of about 4 to 1 on Saturday, and show the markets' need for BTC spending outlets.

The Bitcoin crypto-currency system has recently surpassed the 70,000 block milestone, leaving 3,500,000 potential BTC in existence with a current valuation of about $200,000 (USD).

Awesome analysis! Smiley
lachesis
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July 25, 2010, 06:13:40 PM
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The end of the week saw a sharp decline in exchange prices from earlier in the week.  Both markets, Mt. Gox 24/7 Bitcoin Exchange (GOX), and the original Bitcoin Market (BCM) showed steep price drops (~-40%) with high Exchange rates from 0.087 - 0.093 USD/BTC down to 0.054 - 0.059 USD/BTC.

Based on historical prices from early July, the BC exchange rates have shown roughly a 10-fold increase in BTC market valuation (0.005 to 0.05).

Recent Bitcoin generation woes with the Pitock hubbub, and the recent Slashdotting of Bitcoin have led to high proof of work difficulties, and are the likely causes of the recent price bubble.

Ask to Bid volume ratios on GOX are currently running nearly 3 to 1 (Ask Volume: 9026.99  Bid Volume: 2893), down from a speculative high of about 4 to 1 on Saturday, and show the markets' need for BTC spending outlets.

The Bitcoin crypto-currency system has recently surpassed the 70,000 block milestone, leaving 3,500,000 potential BTC in existence with a current valuation of about $200,000 (USD).
Great analysis. You should do these weekly!

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July 25, 2010, 07:05:11 PM
 #4

I like it too, it's straight to the point and doesn't blame/assume things about the market. It just presents what is there, the reader can decide for him/her self how good/bad things are going.  Smiley

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July 25, 2010, 07:13:20 PM
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Nice! I was going to try to get someone to do some sort of market review for mtgox.
Where is the market headed next week?

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July 25, 2010, 07:37:23 PM
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Nice! I was going to try to get someone to do some sort of market review for mtgox.
Where is the market headed next week?
The market will be stabilizing for the next few weeks. The market price will drop during this stabilization period, but after it stabilizes, the price will slowly start to increase again. This next week it will most likely either stay steady or drop, so it's not a good time to make short term investments in bitcoins. If you want to make a few bucks off your bitcoins in the short term, now is a good time to sell since the price will be dropping and it will take a while to increase back to where it was previously. Anytime is a good time for long term investments since the price will eventually surpass anything you'll pay right now. If you're buying or selling products for bitcoins, watch the exchange rate closely for the next few weeks. This prediction is based on authentic market knowledge, but as a disclaimer, I'm not an economist and I don't have any special connections or access.

Block difficulty will continue to increase as a result of recent publicity, but the rate of the increase of difficulty will decrease quite quickly. This next adjustment will be fairly significant, but subsequent increases will be less dramatic since the number of existing users is much higher than when the increase started. The rate of new users could increase or decrease, but it will indefinitely stay higher than before the recent publicity.

Edit: Added content.

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BitCoinPurse
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July 26, 2010, 01:43:37 AM
 #7

the Pitock hubbub.

I just love the "Pitock Hubbub".  Thanks all for you support and the market projections.

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bitcoinex
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July 27, 2010, 11:51:45 AM
 #8

very nice Smiley
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Please, more charts to your letters!

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imnichol
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July 27, 2010, 12:34:16 PM
 #9

I just love the "Pitock Hubbub".  Thanks all for you support and the market projections.

Could you explain this for the unenlightened?

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BitCoinPurse
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July 27, 2010, 05:48:34 PM
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I just love the "Pitock Hubbub".  Thanks all for you support and the market projections.
Could you explain this for the unenlightened?

William Pitock, aka Nenolod, is self-proclaimed as the sole party responsible for the "attack" on bitcoin proof-of-work increases that "shoot up from 45.0 to 181.5" in the middle of the month of July: 

http://nenolod.net/thoughts-on-bitcoin/




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imnichol
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July 27, 2010, 05:55:55 PM
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William Pitock, aka Nenolod, is self-proclaimed as the sole party responsible for the "attack" on bitcoin proof-of-work increases that "shoot up from 45.0 to 181.5" in the middle of the month of July: 

http://nenolod.net/thoughts-on-bitcoin/





Ah thank you.  I didn't know his real name.

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knightmb
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July 27, 2010, 06:28:30 PM
 #12

I just love the "Pitock Hubbub".  Thanks all for you support and the market projections.
Could you explain this for the unenlightened?

William Pitock, aka Nenolod, is self-proclaimed as the sole party responsible for the "attack" on bitcoin proof-of-work increases that "shoot up from 45.0 to 181.5" in the middle of the month of July: 

http://nenolod.net/thoughts-on-bitcoin/
The difficulty never went down after his *attack* was done, so I have just as much evidence that I'm the one who raised the difficulty rate as he did. My opinion is that the influx of new users is what raised the difficulty and he was just using that as a cover to get himself attention in some way.

You'll find a more detailed opinion on this page https://www.bitcoin.org/smf/index.php?topic=431.60 near the bottom, look for my long post.

BitCoinPurse
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July 27, 2010, 07:33:23 PM
 #13

Maybe not an attack, but definitely a hubbub...

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RHorning
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July 27, 2010, 11:00:38 PM
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Maybe not an attack, but definitely a hubbub...

I think he is over estimating how much of a significance he had, and ignoring the huge influx of people coming into the project due to some articles on prominent sites being published about Bitcoins.

Still, introducing a huge number of computers into the network was beneficial in a number of ways even from one person, and and it is interesting that somebody might even try to control more than 50% of the computers on the network at any given time.  If anything, he did a huge service to the Bitcoins community as his "attack" came on-line just as many other people eager to do some real hacking came into the project too.  So in a way, he didn't really attack the network but rather gave it some real protection against those who might have done even more harm.

The question is in terms of what is he going to be doing with all of the bitcoins that he "earned" from the attack?

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