Ok first im new this, a few month old pup i am. with this out of the way let's see what i learned.
#1 ASIC, at first it made sense, with btc over 700$ i tought it was a good option. after reviewing different sites and such i saw that there was a pattern. the patern is 90 days, everything turns around 90 days. let me explain.
ROI on machines you buy is around 90 days turnaround ( so you start making profit after paying cost of machine).
Asics will last around 90 days, @ CURRENT BTC prices, meanign if prices drop you need a few months more to ROI.
Asics after 90 days of use are useless as diff increases 300% in 3 months approx... meaning if you buy a 1 terra, youll need a 3 terra in 90 days to make same cash as today.
300% 90 days... 90 days ROI = 0 profit . these are just approximations but you get the point.
The only and i repeat only guys making millions right now are china manufacturers.
Right now there is a 15 terra on the market, SCAM ? probably yes, by the time you get it youll need 30 terra to stay in the game.
right now even a 4 terra will bring you nothing,
there a 2-3 class action suits on multiple manufacturers ( distributors ) because of the following i noticed as well before hand.
if they make machines wouldn't make sense they squeezed the most of it before selling to the suckers who buy ? yes
that's what they do, in fact even knc know PROVED they do this by offering you to mine on their FARM of supposedly not received hardware while you wait for your rig.
so not only they get your cash to dev the asics , now they make you use them in cloud with a % fee of course and some other tactics im sure.
Also Asics will cost you to import, some uk companies ship from india/china as well so it would be coming from uk/sweden or whatever.
you can use
https://tradeblock.com/mining/ to check probabilities...
heres a link to a 2 terra @ 4k USD
https://tradeblock.com/mining/a/a42d0bb245with btc going down as it is going to.
BTW by the time they SELL you a 4 terra, they already mining on a 8 terra... once you get the 4 in your hands and diff is too high for roi... you make your roi in 120 days and then have a 4 terra and cash back.. which they want.. so they will sell you the 8 terra now, as they just got the 15 in the door anyway.
90 days guys...always market price of your asic so sucker is always squeezed at maximum....
price of asic = how much can they ( buyers) make in time for it to be useless so they can get me another one
now they are pushing asci scrypt... this will just kill all non nscrypt coins ( they already working on that as well so don't buy asic scrypt boxes) ..
for anycoin to survive they will need to fork to n-scrypt / x11 etc else market rules follow.
Offer vs Demand... more offer ( competition) = less price...
so more coins on market fast = less offer to buy meaning lower pricing..meaning all non nscrypt coins will DROP to death or 10-20 sats...
next is the market.
MARKETwell the market has started to jump in November ( i have to assume first batch of real power asics where done by then and china started to mine as hell with them) so now they had coins, lots... trading wisely they pushed the btc up a lot this with media / and noobs coming into market created a 3rd bubble.
manufacturers need the btc price to stay in a 90 day ROI for asic so they can sell you more deadweight. they will push it backup im sure , but it will probably settle around 250/300 /usd
remember first 2 bubbles.. .12 cents to 12$ then down to 4-5$ then up to 200 bucks then down to 40~ bucks then up to 1200 then down to .....
next is the coins themselves..
COINSmost are and will always be just for trade/speculation ran by kids/adults with no idea on what they are doing.
i bet most of these non profitable charity orgs coins never sent 1 dime to any org's.
most have no value at all in terms of aftermarket services....
yeah gpuc has a ecommerce site.
yeah sexcoin is accepted on a few porn sites.
yeah yeahyeah
exceptions but some don't even bother no more to make a site/wallet/explorer before launch. meaning ? it's all to suck the suckers cash out.
metaphore : you got a company you own 1 million shares... @ 10 satoshis..
you go public millions invest in that and you get now a 100 satoshi value
you sell on exchange and can know redeem your cash , letting coin die and start a new one.
there is no security in nothing here, not the pools, not the exchanges , and not the coins.
some could be run by criminals or not who knows.
you could be financing something else who knows.
anyway so in REAL life... you have a block on selling securities when you IPO, to protect investors from scams and such.
zuckerberg coudnt sell facebook actions in first xx months and anyone in same position has same rules.
these don't apply here, so carefull.
next is insider trading, alot of colusion and gangs are pumping and dumping coins, which would be illegal in real world but accepted here weird ?
not really no coin has any value anyway it's all speculation
there would be no value if no pumps and dumps, coz no service tied to the coins .
alot would have coins that are worth 0....nothing gained here.
kids -> well apart from 2-3 RAT's i saw in forums, running coins/pools and admitting it was to scam people and steal theyr btc....wow
the kid actually had an exchange ran by a 1 man show, and he just said the magic word ( i got hacked) thats like calling transunion equifax and claiming stolen identity coz you loaded that mastercard and can't pay up.
alot get miraculousely hacked and then all you profits ( coins ) leave with the ceo's ( kids or crooks)
its a big ponzi and thats why irs tried to put a stop to it.
don't get me wrong i love the cryptos, BUT it needs security ,
imagine if a 13 year old ran your local CHASE branch... no cameras, no security nothing, not even a safe, he would just bring the cash home at night and put under pillow.
would you put your money there ?
well who know anything ANYTHING about these exchanges ?
is there a real place of business ?
is it ran by fraudsters ? crooks ? mafia ?
once the wallets get big enough, human nature and greed will alsways kick back in.
they will leave with the cash, heck it happens with payment processors and they are bank regulated... ( look at ibill.com and DMR dakota marketing and research ) they left with the cash of hundred of thousands of users) and now live in a bahamas like paradise.
so unless someone MAKES a secure system, then this will not last 5-10-20 years... and the only way this can happen is a major cleanup in CRAP/sHIT/and useless coins..
by useless i mean no added value then to make all mine for it.
i guess education is needed. please react to this post and post feedback as im starting to get depressed now. lol
my 0.02 satoshis