Feeler: I can pick at 70%. Five attempts. Give me odds. I'll post 1 BTC.

[SixFigures]

I'm pretty certain I can pick at 70%.

I'm willing to post .25 1 BTC that I can if somebody is going to give me even remotely good odds.

Rules:
- I get one round of 100 at taking the picks
- Once I reach 70 correct OR 31 incorrect the competition will end
- I can pick up to 5 games/teams per night
- Each night I need to make a pick. Unless there's no NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL games.
- Team/game can't be more than -150
- Escrow required (lol. had to say it.)
- Each attempt will consist of games
- If I win 6 games round will be over and I win
- If i lose 5 games then the round will be over and I lose.
- I get 5 try's/rounds.

Based on the response I get I'll be tweaking/adding/updating the rules.

Hope we can get some people that will do this. Worst case scenario is I lose 1 BTC.

I'm just throwing around number here, but I think 500:1 1000:1 odds would be fair, no?

[notserp]

i dont know what the odds are but its not 500 to 1 lol

[SixFigures]

50.0% - 1 in 2   
51.6% - 1 in 6.3
53.2% - 1 in 44
54.8% - 1 in 700
70.0% - < 1 in a trillion

Source: http://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/what-are-realistic-expectations-when-betting-on-the-nfl/

[Nobitcoin]

Show me your wallet then I might be interested 

[SixFigures]

Show me your wallet then I might be interested 

It would have to be an escrow anyway. So I would escrow one btc (or whatever I'm laying on the line) and the other person would as well.

[leex1528]

I would be willing an being an escrow for this if wanted, I would like to see how this plays out....

[SixFigures]

Bump.

Changing this to .25BTC .. somebody give me odds.

Feel free to PM or post.

Escrow will be needed, obv.

[DiamondCardz]

I'll escrow for this if needed, my fee is 2%.

[brian123321]

500:1 is outrageous.

I hit above 70% in college basketball betting -110 over the span of about a month and played a lot of plays compared to what you are talking about.

You are talking about a small amount of plays and you are allowing yourself to take favorites up to -150 which i am sure you will take full advantage of.

Hitting 70% in the short run is fairly easy; its hitting 70% over a season that is nearly impossible.

[brian123321]

Not only that you are giving yourself 5 chances to win.

[brian123321]

First off the odds need to be DRAMATICALLY reduced.  They are simply outrageous to anyone wanting to take the other side.

Also there has to be far more rules put in place.  For example,

Do you have to play a certain amount of games each day? Are you allowed to go a day or two or a week without making a play?  This is a huge factor that would need to be discussed and pinned down.  If you are allowed to sit around and wait for days to make a play it makes it a lot easier.

Also the fact that you get 5 separate chances to win is outrageous.  You should get 1 chance and that is it.  Fuck, there are been a lot of days where i finished above 70% and won 6 games or more and that is on a single day.  I am not waiting around for picks that i believe are FOR SURE wins.

[brian123321]

Either way the article you posted makes me feel damn good about my 67% win rate in the last 1.5 months of college basketball.  Seeing as they say its nearly impossible to hit 70% i was only 3% off from that.  Given it was only the last 1.5 months or so but still makes me feel warm and cozy inside.

Oh and i am damn sure i hit over 55% in the NFL.  Last year i was around 56-57% at the lowest.  Might have actually been higher.

[brian123321]

One more thing for anyone who thinks these odds are remotely good.

Yesterday i finished 6-1 with the biggest favorite being -157 and could have locked that in earlier to meet the -155 mark.  Either way this afternoon my first play for today won.  Therefore if i am understanding how you set this up i would have just won the bet if i was asking people to wager against me.

[SixFigures]

One more thing for anyone who thinks these odds are remotely good.

Yesterday i finished 6-1 with the biggest favorite being -157 and could have locked that in earlier to meet the -155 mark.  Either way this afternoon my first play for today won.  Therefore if i am understanding how you set this up i would have just won the bet if i was asking people to wager against me.

brian - Only quoting one of your posts, but I'll reference every question:

1. Hitting 70% is HARD as balls. It really is. Lets not down play that in anyway. I'm actually just doing this to get some action.
2. A lot of what you are talking about is that "one time" you were able to hit 70% based on a certain sample size that you had. I mean, sure I've hit 90% before in a month, but maybe the next month I had 90% losers.
3. If -150 is to high .. I'll do -110 ... maybe I'll just do over/unders if the person wants.
4. Timespan is tough, but I'll just say .. no more than 1 week in-between picks. So either I have the option of picking 10 in one night OR I can pick on every week. Doubtful I would ever take this long, but if I don't see any games I like it could happen.
5. I still think 500:1 is more than far .. given the odds are trillions-to-1.
6. When you say you are hitting 55% or 67% it's varied because you could be betting -200 or better. I've hit 10 outta 10 before but they were heavy favorites.

Quite honestly, it's damn near impossible to do what I'm asking. I'm just looking for a little gamble. Nor do I think anybody has the money to back it. I'll be impressed if anybody does.

With that said, brian feel free to give me an offer .. worst case scenario is that I say 'no'.

[alabamafan1]

500:1? WTF. Are you truly insane? Maybe if you went 70% Over 1000+ plays but not 10. Jesus christ.

You make 10 picks TOTAL, -120 is the highest favorite allowed. None of this multiple tries bullshit. To get 6 wins out of 10 picks, and be able to do it 3-5 times, hell I could do that and I would take 1:1 odds if you'd offer them. Anyways heres a more realistic offer to your desire:

10 picks total.

Make 6 of 10 correct you win back your money, no win no loss.

Make 7 or more out of 10 correct you win .15 BTC (from me) per .10 BTC put up by yourself.

5 wins you get half your money back. 4 wins or less I get your full amount risked.

That would be a more realistic approach.

Not saying I would be up for this as my funds are tied up at the moment but this is what I would offer. And escrow would be required.

[SixFigures]

Make 7 or more out of 10 correct you win .15 BTC (from me) per .10 BTC put up by yourself.

You're giving me 1.5:1?

I'll give you 2:1 .. I'll post 20 btc if you post 10 btc.

---

I'm still sticking to what I've said before. I think I need good odds in order to do this. Maybe not 500:1. That was just a number I through out there, but I've never seen anybody pick at 70% and I'm willing to put it out there just for fun. Just trying to generate some action and possibly make some people money.

[brian123321]

Sixfigures when you replied to my post you mention a -200?  I have made a single -200 play and i hit well over 70% over a sample size of 100 games plus during the college basketball season so honestly i have no idea where you are getting ur numbers from.

500:1 is outrageous.

Multiple tries is outrageous

getting a week in between plays is outrageous

a sample size of 10 picks is outrageous.

You will not getting any action because it is an outrageous prop

[TwinWinNerD]

50.0% - 1 in 2   
51.6% - 1 in 6.3
53.2% - 1 in 44
54.8% - 1 in 700
70.0% - < 1 in a trillion

Source: http://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/what-are-realistic-expectations-when-betting-on-the-nfl/

I havent read everything is this thread, but this figures have nothing to do with your bet. These numbers represent the chance of picking 70% right if you bet random at 1000 games in one season.

Hardly your situation is it??

[jdany]

This is something a time traveler would propose.

[SixFigures]

These numbers represent the chance of picking 70% right if you bet random at 1000 games in one season.

Hardly your situation is it??

Correct, I guess I did this because it would be so hard to track 100 games. Would just take forever, but I'm getting a lot of backlash. So if this is what I need to do. I guess I'll do it.

500:1 is outrageous.

Multiple tries is outrageous

getting a week in between plays is outrageous

a sample size of 10 picks is outrageous.

You will not getting any action because it is an outrageous prop

Well then give me odds. I just threw a number out there. Do you think 500:1  is fair if I would pick 100 games?

Multiple tries outrageous if I pick 100 games?

100 game sample size fair?

What about two days inbetween games and I can pick more than one within one night.

My thought process originally was that nobody would want to sit and track 100 games. I'm thinking I'll have to verify every game .. every time.

I have no problem doing 100 games, but christ, doing it 5 times is going to take years ... lol!