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Author Topic: What every miner should know about  (Read 3789 times)
komar
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April 14, 2014, 02:13:48 PM
 #1

You can only mine finite amount of bitcoins with ASIC miner

Real example: Avalon ASIC miner. Nowdays it can't mine shit for you. Despite it gave hundreds dollars a day to guys who bought it before May 2013.

Reason: the mining difficulty is rising up dramatically. See below.

The mining difficulty is rising up monotonously for ~20% every 2 weeks

Real example: this historical chart


(this chart updates every hour; source: http://divananalit.org/#Bitcoin-mining-difficulty-change )

Reason: I don't know. It's just happening at least for last year. It's like a Moore's law.

You can easy calculate will your ceх.io investment ever be in profit or not.

You can use simple formula of Infinite geometric series. For example, one GHS costs 0.0103 BTC. With current difficulty (6119726089.13) one GHS could mine 0.0011505 BTC per two weeks. If mining difficulty will rise up for 20% every two weeks, then reward will fall for 20% every two weeks, then the total amount of bitcoins we could mine with that GHS is:

0.0011505 / (1 - 0.8) = 0.0057525 BTC

But one GHS costs 0.0103 BTC — two times more expensive!

Conclusion: ceх.io is a chump investment. Do not buy anything there.

You can reckon will your ASIC miner ever be in profit if you'll buy it today

I'll just show you two things: "Mhash/s/$" characteristic which you could see in this table and this chart:


(this chart updates every hour and depends on current mining difficulty; source: http://divananalit.org/#Will-my-mining-investment-ever-be-in-profit.3F )

What conclusions could we make?

  • Avalon (50 Mhash/s/$) bought today will pay itself only if you sell all gained bitcoins for thousands of USD.
  • TerraMiner IV (333 Mhash/s/$) is already unprofitable
  • Minerscube 15 (1666 Mhash/s/$) will make profit for you if you'll buy it today even if bitcoin price will fall down to $300.

Thanks a lot, be careful, use your brans. And sorry for my shitty language — I wrote a post in russian and decided to share this with you.

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odolvlobo
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April 14, 2014, 05:10:41 PM
 #2

You can only mine finite amount of bitcoins with ASIC miner
...

A miner will mine a finite amount because it will stop working at some point.

As a rule of thumb, an estimate of mining revenue that assumes exponential growth is useful, but it is only an estimate. The problems with using the exponential model are that the rate of increase is not constant, and that the prediction can vary wildly depending on the rate you choose. Just a few months ago people were estimating that the difficulty would increase by 40%. Now it looks like it might be only 20%. At some point, limits will be reached and the rate is going to drop below 10%. Moore's Law is around 3%. Which rate do you choose?

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komar
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April 14, 2014, 05:35:12 PM
 #3

Which rate do you choose?
Just check out the second chart. I drew 5%, 20% and 30% lines. And I drew the first chart so everybody can see how difficulty grew up in past.

I can't say something for exactly, but I did my best to provide a clear vision of entire situation.

jparsley
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April 15, 2014, 03:51:28 PM
 #4

Wow the minerscube looks really good on charts.

please unban me.
jamesc760
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April 15, 2014, 05:27:58 PM
 #5

If you buy a mining rig today after reading this, you deserve to lose everything, including the shirt on your back.
komar
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April 15, 2014, 07:35:22 PM
 #6

If you buy a mining rig today after reading this, you deserve to lose everything, including the shirt on your back.
Don't be so categorical. Minerscube 15 looks quite a good. Of course, if you will not get it in six months. Smiley

dogechode
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April 15, 2014, 07:39:24 PM
 #7

It seems the OP is a little biased toward the miners cube?

Honestly I think any Bitcoin mining equipment purchased at this point will be hard pressed to make a profit. The prices and difficulty rising and price being unpredictable at best have all contributed to that.
komar
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April 15, 2014, 08:08:47 PM
 #8

It seems the OP is a little biased toward the miners cube?
I don't know anything about minercubes except they got 1666 Mhash/s/$. :)

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April 15, 2014, 09:16:31 PM
 #9

Plus one for taking the time to spell it out for those who are unaware!
jamesc760
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April 16, 2014, 03:21:33 AM
 #10

If you buy a mining rig today after reading this, you deserve to lose everything, including the shirt on your back.
Don't be so categorical. Minerscube 15 looks quite a good. Of course, if you will not get it in six months. Smiley

Stop pushing Minerscube 15 or whatever it is you're trying to sell to unsuspecting noobs. Any pre-order you buy today will not break-even or take months/years.
waldox
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April 16, 2014, 07:30:15 AM
 #11

my abacus miner will rock.... i get the practice my finger dexterity

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gagalady
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April 16, 2014, 09:46:09 AM
 #12

So what is the best thing to mine bitcoins with now days? give me an example for let's say $10000.  Huh
komar
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April 16, 2014, 10:13:33 AM
 #13

Stop pushing Minerscube 15 or whatever it is you're trying to sell to unsuspecting noobs.
I'm not pushing anything to anybody.
If it looks like pushing, maybe I should offer advertisment to minerscube’s guys? :)

Any pre-order you buy today will not break-even or take months/years.
This is why I wrote this: Minerscube 15 (1666 Mhash/s/$) will make profit for you if you'll buy it today
And "buy today" means "got today".
I don't know anything about pre-orders or delivery time. For me it's just a number, and this number looks good.

Socket54
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April 16, 2014, 10:14:18 AM
 #14

i guess im just one of those weird guys that just like having something put back for future gains and dont mind a lose now. Because to me anything that can benefit you in the future during a bad turn is better then gloating over your loses now. And if it dont work out it dont, not like i lost my house over it

Laugh Smile and Love
dogechode
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April 16, 2014, 07:15:41 PM
 #15

The problem is mainly the absurd cost of these devices. Sort of like GPU mining; people that paid $100-150 for high hashing GPUs back before Black Friday last year are sitting pretty while people who paid $500+ for those same cards a few months later may find it difficult to break past their initial investment.
Lethn
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April 16, 2014, 07:27:40 PM
 #16

Difficulty is working as intended, well done Satoshi Nakamoto.
jbrnt
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April 16, 2014, 08:15:22 PM
 #17

I believe the mining for a massive profit is a thing of the past. Difficulty rises too quickly to expect any profit at all. The sad thing is most buyers of asics will not realise that until they have bought one and mined with it.
spazzdla
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April 16, 2014, 08:29:31 PM
 #18

Wow the minerscube looks really good on charts.

If the company is legit.......

Also, Peercoin.
dogechode
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April 16, 2014, 08:30:49 PM
 #19

I believe the mining for a massive profit is a thing of the past. Difficulty rises too quickly to expect any profit at all. The sad thing is most buyers of asics will not realise that until they have bought one and mined with it.

The irony is a lot of the people contributing to the massive difficulty, making it unprofitable, are never even going to realize a profit themselves because they will give up and likely sell their mined coins at an overall loss.... then resell the used equipment to some new bagholder...

This is almost like 20 people cramming onto an elevator that can only support 10 people.
odolvlobo
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April 16, 2014, 09:40:38 PM
 #20

I believe the mining for a massive profit is a thing of the past. Difficulty rises too quickly to expect any profit at all. The sad thing is most buyers of asics will not realise that until they have bought one and mined with it.

There was never any "mining for massive profit. That is just a legend. Mining has never been more than slightly profitable.

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