i didnt pull the 200,000Sats value out of my ass, this is how i got my value:
70mill BC/ 15 mill Cinni = 4.7Times
BC = 50K Sats atm
So 50,000 x 4.7 = 230,000Sats or a conservative 200,000Sats
I agree with the coin supply factor bit, but you've got to add other factors for things like no first-mover advantage.
If you take BTC vs LTC, then that factor would be about 40. So 200,000 / 40 = 5000 Sats is a more realistic minimum valuation. As a max, you could use a factor of 10 for the non first-mover advantage, so that puts the upper limit at 20,000.
5000 - 20,000 is it.