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Author Topic: Why was there a spike up before the selloff?  (Read 1187 times)
SaintFlow
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January 09, 2012, 08:10:35 PM
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What I still do not understand is the reason for the spike up to 7.2 just before the spike down
that caused the selloff.

Does someone have an idea?

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sgbett
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January 09, 2012, 08:17:01 PM
 #2

Shaking out weak hands before a larger move.

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January 09, 2012, 08:25:12 PM
 #3

yes, a fat fingered biggest-selloff-since-the-$30 bubble mistake...

Of course the real longer term shake-out is probably this selloff. Pick your horse Wink

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Vandroiy
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January 09, 2012, 08:27:44 PM
 #4

Might be a "bear trap". If confidence is strong, a sell-off will bounce back first, and only start a decline after the slightly more hesitant buyers are also depleted.

We often had these, most notably on the 32 and 25 double-peaks of the bursting bubble in June, but also in the "first sell-off" phase, which featured a drop but still led to the all-time high in the end.

I think it's a sign of instability; day-traders don't function the normal way in such situations, thus it can happen. AFAIK a few bots still profit from the small-scale volatility though, even right now.
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January 09, 2012, 08:35:23 PM
 #5

If you ask me everyone seems to be functioning perfectly normally! Massive sell off happens, people refuse to believe it and invent reasons why it will bounce back, eventually they cut there losses, just in time for the reversal.

I see nothing unusual happening here! The knife is falling... quick catch it!

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Mousepotato
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January 09, 2012, 08:38:58 PM
 #6

When everybody is fearful...

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sgbett
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January 09, 2012, 08:41:19 PM
 #7

Look how the bid side on gox has changed from a smooth slope to lumpy steps at round numbers. People are becoming more afraid of entering unless they get a deep discount. The asks keep filling in any drop as people try to cut losses.

Aye, the reversal will come in time, when is anybody's guess - remember the journey down from 30 I lost count of the number times I thought it was ready to go back up Wink

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sgbett
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January 09, 2012, 08:43:40 PM
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When everybody is fearful...

People aren't fearful yet, they are still telling stories about how this is just a minot blip in this really to end all rallies, this is the opportunity of a lifetime, we'll never see sub $6.50 coins again. etc etc.

Yeah I'm talking my order book - I'm even net short. Doesn't make me wrong - I'm fairly sure we are well past the point of some random on the BTC forum begin able to influence price... market is much bigger than that now.

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January 09, 2012, 08:57:58 PM
 #9

If you ask me everyone seems to be functioning perfectly normally! Massive sell off happens, people refuse to believe it and invent reasons why it will bounce back, eventually they cut there losses, just in time for the reversal.

I see nothing unusual happening here! The knife is falling... quick catch it!

i agree on first account, everything functioning perfectly normally minus some live data feed glitches.  
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January 09, 2012, 09:07:26 PM
 #10

yeah that is bugging me, but then that tends to be an indicator in itself (of volume though, not direction!) Smiley

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sgbett
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January 09, 2012, 10:34:00 PM
 #11

it couldn't possibly happen again!

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StewartJ
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January 09, 2012, 11:43:44 PM
 #12

Resiliency.

This is what I find encouraging. This BTC price takes a beating but it still surges on.

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this statement is false


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January 10, 2012, 12:01:06 AM
 #13

Resiliency.

This is what I find encouraging. This BTC price takes a beating but it still surges on.



i noted this in another thread. i have full confidence that we will not see prices lower than $6 before resuming the uptrend.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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