[Daily Speculation Poll] :: Bitcoin, to infinity and beyond! or not....

[adamstgBit]

note 4$ is what we started with in the new year, and so you can not predict the lowest price of bitcoin in 2012 will be above 4$

 

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[ArsenShnurkov]

"Fundamental" reasoning for $4.5 bottom

[adamstgBit]

"Fundamental" reasoning for $4.5 bottom

i think this reasoning is flawed, since i believe miners have very little effect on the market

[sgbett]

agreed. this is pure psychology play.

[ArsenShnurkov]

miners have very little effect on the market

Miners don't have effect, the supply does. And supply will reduce twice.
(Miners costs don't have effect because of difficulty)

Reduced supply should drive price up (if there is a demand).

[Vandroiy]

I think this is a continuation of the speculation mania from last year. I assume that the exodus might hit about half of the people currently hyping, which would make 3 a possible target.

I'm not very certain though. Or else I would have sold all my coins already, of course. I'm being a bullbear right now, if that makes any sense, selling some but still keeping some just in case.

Still, that's a change from the clear bullishness of mine a month ago.

[sgbett]

miners have very little effect on the market

Miners don't have effect, the supply does. And supply will reduce twice.
(Miners costs don't have effect because of difficulty)

Reduced supply should drive price up (if there is a demand).

I don't think there is anything wrong with your reward logic. I just don't think you can assert a floor based on mining though.

So yeah when the reward gets cut in half i think we'll get a price bump, but the underlying price is wholly psychological. with a constantly shifting distribution of bulls and bears and their perceived value either side.

This will continue until such time as goods can be valued in BTC (as opposed to BTC being merely a proxy for USD). Then the fun will begin

[adamstgBit]

miners have very little effect on the market

Miners don't have effect, the supply does. And supply will reduce twice.
(Miners costs don't have effect because of difficulty)

Reduced supply should drive price up (if there is a demand).

i would say only ~5% of the daily volume is miners selling their coins.
maybe when the reward is cut in half price will get pumped... but i know theirs a lot of people (including miners) holding their coins until that time.
they will wait for the new highs, from speculation on the effect of the reward being cut in half. and then start selling their coins they have been holding for a long time!

so once the reward is cut in half maybe ~20% of the daily volume will be atributed to minners selling coins!

i expect a pump and dump for the 25BTC reward phenomenon.