RSI gone from "overbought" zone

[ArsenShnurkov]

[bittenbob]

I also took in elliot wave theory for the first time today and I was just about to say it looks like we are at the final wave of an impulse action and as I type this we hit 6.40 again. Heres hoping this takes us back up to 7. I am not claiming to be an expert but would be interesting if this could help me predict market moves.

[Edit]
We have to hit 6.45 for it to become an upwards impulse.

All of this at a level below what is visible on the graph. At the level of this graph it looks like we still might have some correcting to do but I hope I am wrong.

[Vandroiy]

Do that same RSI on the June bubble.

Here's the whole year: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gRSIzv

I think that back-fired just now, lol.

BTW, whatever that thing calculates, the result looks just like "lol I took the first derivative of the logarithm and did some magic re-scaling." I don't think this can predict the future.

[bittenbob]

Since we didnt hit 6.45 we could be headed below 6.10 in the next short term drop.

[sgbett]

call me when its in the 'oversold' part

[DeathAndTaxes]

call me when its in the 'oversold' part

+1

[bittenbob]

Since we didnt hit 6.45 we could be headed below 6.10 in the next short term drop.

Guess I was right even though I wish I wasnt. Lets rally back up everyone!

[arepo]

Do that same RSI on the June bubble.

Here's the whole year: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gRSIzv

I think that back-fired just now, lol.

BTW, whatever that thing calculates, the result looks just like "lol I took the first derivative of the logarithm and did some magic re-scaling." I don't think this can predict the future.

dude. it predicted the correction we just had. because it was, in fact, a correction. contrary to 'melting bid walls' (the thread wherein i posted the below prediction) and any knives gravitating towards the earth, the correction was overdue and the uptrend will now continue. all indicators (chart voodoo, the most powerful magic known to man) remain bullish, the RSI is back out of 'overbought'. as i type this, BTC reaches a new short-term high since the sell-off of $6.65.

four hours after the correction, i posted this:

I smell mania. That's a down-signal for me, because it only pays for bids until things go sideways for the first time.

We had almost 2 months of rallies. A step down wouldn't hurt. Another instant rally would take us back into bubble territory, and what's the point of that? Everybody has made this experience by now, it's unlikely to repeat itself.

this is so silly. the indicators were all bullish. we had an ascending triangle, bouncing off of the wall at $7.20 for days. nothing happened due to low weekend volume, one guy got spooked and dumped coins down to sub $6.90, which started panic sells and more giant dumps. Sure, we needed a correction but we could have gotten over the resistance at $7.20 and sailed to the next level before this happened easily. Notice how the cheap coins were gobbled up instantly? We won't see prices <$6.00, we're on our way up, and since the correction happened early I wouldn't be surprised if we sail to $10 before another major correction.

and yes, the chart voodoo imparted this knowledge upon me.

[notme]

and yes, the chart voodoo imparted this knowledge upon me.

My chart-fu agrees with your conclusions.

[P4man]

BTW, whatever that thing calculates, the result looks just like "lol I took the first derivative of the logarithm and did some magic re-scaling." I don't think this can predict the future.

With bitcoin, it can. Tea leaves and astrology can too. Anything can fairly accurately predict bitcoin, the only condition is that enough speculators believe it can, and get the same "analysis" (I guess that rules out tea leaves) and therefore act upon the prediction so it will automatically become true. After all, to predict bitcoin exchange rates, you have to predict the actions of other investors, as thats pretty much the only variable. If enough speculators believe the moon phase will have an effect on bitcoin, then it will.

[arepo]

Do that same RSI on the June bubble.

Here's the whole year: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gRSIzv

I think that back-fired just now, lol.

BTW, whatever that thing calculates, the result looks just like "lol I took the first derivative of the logarithm and did some magic re-scaling." I don't think this can predict the future.

dude. it predicted the correction we just had. because it was, in fact, a correction. contrary to 'melting bid walls' (the thread wherein i posted the below prediction) and any knives gravitating towards the earth, the correction was overdue and the uptrend will now continue. all indicators (chart voodoo, the most powerful magic known to man) remain bullish, the RSI is back out of 'overbought'. as i type this, BTC reaches a new short-term high since the sell-off of $6.65.

four hours after the correction, i posted this:

I smell mania. That's a down-signal for me, because it only pays for bids until things go sideways for the first time.

We had almost 2 months of rallies. A step down wouldn't hurt. Another instant rally would take us back into bubble territory, and what's the point of that? Everybody has made this experience by now, it's unlikely to repeat itself.

this is so silly. the indicators were all bullish. we had an ascending triangle, bouncing off of the wall at $7.20 for days. nothing happened due to low weekend volume, one guy got spooked and dumped coins down to sub $6.90, which started panic sells and more giant dumps. Sure, we needed a correction but we could have gotten over the resistance at $7.20 and sailed to the next level before this happened easily. Notice how the cheap coins were gobbled up instantly? We won't see prices <$6.00, we're on our way up, and since the correction happened early I wouldn't be surprised if we sail to $10 before another major correction.

and yes, the chart voodoo imparted this knowledge upon me.

also, clear symmetrical triangle since dump, just now followed by a breakout to the new high i mentioned in the above post, confirming bullish trend. seem to be resting on quasi-stable prices at 6.4x

[Enky1974]

With bitcoin, it can. Tea leaves and astrology can too. Anything can fairly accurately predict bitcoin, the only condition is that enough speculators believe it can, and get the same "analysis" (I guess that rules out tea leaves) and therefore act upon the prediction so it will automatically become true. After all, to predict bitcoin exchange rates, you have to predict the actions of other investors, as thats pretty much the only variable. If enough speculators believe the moon phase will have an effect on bitcoin, then it will.

You got the point, yes "Anything can fairly accurately predict bitcoin" in the past because it is easy to overfit the market with most trading theories, generally speaking when you have two or more competing trading theories which make exactly the same predictions, the one that is simpler is the better & more profitable, i say again that complicated theories can fit everything on the past with misleading results (and losses) on unseen data.

I'd like to add two words about "elliott wave theory" that is frequently used here on the forum, i have mixed feelings about this theory. On the one hand it can sometimes enable forecasters to do fantastic market forecasts. On the other, it offers too much scope for personal prejudice and bias to influence the wave count, for this reason i don't find it useful for short term day to day trading activities. I think that one should not expect the details of the price action to fit the theory perfectly, instead you should emphasized the importance of looking only at the big picture.
Cheers

[Vandroiy]

arepo, you skipped the part where you de-frauded the people who claimed to know the future in June (this is just a correction!) Back then, the RSI going from "overbought" was an indicator of a super-massive crash. So I don't see what to make of it right now.

I'm aware that you can be more than 50% right by just betting in-trend for the mid-term all the time. Bitcoiners like to follow trends, so this is often right, but if it's not, the delayed reaction is all the more costly. I never saw chartists predict the big trend breaks in a clear way, it was always after-the-fact clarifications that I got to read. And I'm not impressed at "the trend will continue" predictions, because the statement itself can do that without math whatsoever.

In this case, I don't claim to know the future, the trend might as well continue, though I fear we're clearly in an echo bubble then. My expectation value has somehow balanced out, so I sold a part.

How about you Fourier transform the past for a change, and try to find some operation to match classical markets to the result? That would be a kind of "Technical Analysis" I'd find somewhat interesting. There have been some similarities to NASDAQ and Silver, but the time-scales are all strange. Doing this in a formal way might produce some insight.

[arepo]

arepo, you skipped the part where you de-frauded the people who claimed to know the future in June (this is just a correction!) Back then, the RSI going from "overbought" was an indicator of a super-massive crash. So I don't see what to make of it right now.

I'm aware that you can be more than 50% right by just betting in-trend for the mid-term all the time. Bitcoiners like to follow trends, so this is often right, but if it's not, the delayed reaction is all the more costly. I never saw chartists predict the big trend breaks in a clear way, it was always after-the-fact clarifications that I got to read. And I'm not impressed at "the trend will continue" predictions, because the statement itself can do that without math whatsoever.

In this case, I don't claim to know the future, the trend might as well continue, though I fear we're clearly in an echo bubble then. My expectation value has somehow balanced out, so I sold a part.

How about you Fourier transform the past for a change, and try to find some operation to match classical markets to the result? That would be a kind of "Technical Analysis" I'd find somewhat interesting. There have been some similarities to NASDAQ and Silver, but the time-scales are all strange. Doing this in a formal way might produce some insight.

i am not only going by the trend indicated by the slope of the RSI. i like to use the RSI, Williams's %, Avg Directional Index, MFI, MACD, TRIX, Accum/Distribution, Aroon indicators, Chaikin's analyses, and the price-volume trend. These are all based on (the only significant indicators) price and volume, or represent smoothed averages which can help determine reversals (take a look at the all-time MACD, its zero-line crossover in the second week of December clearly signaled a reversal, and here we are looking at a high of 7.xx after the so-called 'falling knife').

when the indicators agree, it is clear. when they disagree, which is often, there is usually consensus among some and inconclusivity in the others.

as for elliot waves, that is pretty bullshit because of the idea of pattern-finding. our brains will find patterns in anything -- way too subjective. my readings often go along the lines of like when i made the above prediction: that this is a small correction and not a reversal, mostly because after the dump and the spike back up to high $6.xx, the slow zigzagging down to the wall at $6.00 was underwritten by an UPTREND in the accumulation/distribution line. this almost always indicates that the current price trend is a false flag and is a short-term correction to the trend. four hours after the dump while everyone was preaching gloom and doom i said we wouldn't see prices below $6.00; we still haven't. in fact, bid and ask volume have filled in and if you look at Gox we seem to have almost stabilized. Meanwhile, all the bullish indicators that INAU saw when he predicted breaking $8 are still bullish, and even the RSI is out of the overbought zone because of our convenient correction. we shall continue our upwards march.

as for comparing BTC to classical markets -- why should there be resemblance? i rely on the data that makes up the history of the BTC market, because that is the only data we have to go on to get a feel for how the BTC market will behave in the future. bitcoincharts is my favorite site haha



IT'S ALIIIIVEE!

[StewartJ]

and yes, the chart voodoo imparted this knowledge upon me.

My chart-fu agrees with your conclusions.

I look at past trends with support and resistance, and I concur as well.

[arepo]

i also use spaculator as a rough gauge of market sentiment. it's fun to look at how bad people who can't read charts are at predicting prices

[sgbett]

...snip...

as for comparing BTC to classical markets -- why should there be resemblance? i rely on the data that makes up the history of the BTC market, because that is the only data we have to go on to get a feel for how the BTC market will behave in the future. bitcoincharts is my favorite site haha

This bit stood out to me. Before bitcoinica I would have agreed. The way the bitcoin market behaved was whack because there were no stop losses orders, no shorting. These two things are pretty fundamental to driving some of the price patterns in classical markets.

I still think that this market can throw up some surprises, but as any market can I don't think that in itself is surprising!

The main threats are big players shoving the market in ways that no amount of charting can predict. Provided you are prepared to lose your entire position if/when that happens then you don;t have anything to worry about.

Going all in on any move, is crazy even in classical markets in bitcoin, over time its a guaranteed blow up.

[StewartJ]

...snip...

as for comparing BTC to classical markets -- why should there be resemblance? i rely on the data that makes up the history of the BTC market, because that is the only data we have to go on to get a feel for how the BTC market will behave in the future. bitcoincharts is my favorite site haha

This bit stood out to me. Before bitcoinica I would have agreed. The way the bitcoin market behaved was whack because there were no stop losses orders, no shorting. These two things are pretty fundamental to driving some of the price patterns in classical markets.

I still think that this market can throw up some surprises, but as any market can I don't think that in itself is surprising!

The main threats are big players shoving the market in ways that no amount of charting can predict. Provided you are prepared to lose your entire position if/when that happens then you don;t have anything to worry about.

Going all in on any move, is crazy even in classical markets in bitcoin, over time its a guaranteed blow up.

...in the middle of the night

[arepo]

...snip...

as for comparing BTC to classical markets -- why should there be resemblance? i rely on the data that makes up the history of the BTC market, because that is the only data we have to go on to get a feel for how the BTC market will behave in the future. bitcoincharts is my favorite site haha

This bit stood out to me. Before bitcoinica I would have agreed. The way the bitcoin market behaved was whack because there were no stop losses orders, no shorting. These two things are pretty fundamental to driving some of the price patterns in classical markets.

I still think that this market can throw up some surprises, but as any market can I don't think that in itself is surprising!

The main threats are big players shoving the market in ways that no amount of charting can predict. Provided you are prepared to lose your entire position if/when that happens then you don;t have anything to worry about.

Going all in on any move, is crazy even in classical markets in bitcoin, over time its a guaranteed blow up.

...in the middle of the night

THIS. big moves are tough to predict, with or without charts. so my tea leaves work at least most of the time.

[StewartJ]

...snip...

as for comparing BTC to classical markets -- why should there be resemblance? i rely on the data that makes up the history of the BTC market, because that is the only data we have to go on to get a feel for how the BTC market will behave in the future. bitcoincharts is my favorite site haha

This bit stood out to me. Before bitcoinica I would have agreed. The way the bitcoin market behaved was whack because there were no stop losses orders, no shorting. These two things are pretty fundamental to driving some of the price patterns in classical markets.

I still think that this market can throw up some surprises, but as any market can I don't think that in itself is surprising!

The main threats are big players shoving the market in ways that no amount of charting can predict. Provided you are prepared to lose your entire position if/when that happens then you don;t have anything to worry about.

Going all in on any move, is crazy even in classical markets in bitcoin, over time its a guaranteed blow up.

...in the middle of the night

THIS. big moves are tough to predict, with or without charts. so my tea leaves work at least most of the time.

I never leave BTC on the table overnight.  Cause you never know when the big surprise is going to hit.

Want to be awake and react when that happens.

For those going long, I understand why that's not as much of an issue.