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Author Topic: Get Free Gas by simple correlation on prices.  (Read 4909 times)
wb3
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April 12, 2011, 04:08:57 PM
 #1

Not sure if this is legal by a Regulation Point of view, but by a Win/Win trade between friends there is nothing wrong with it.

Here it is:

The price of Oil on the market doesn't reach the pump for 30 to 40 days. So here is what you do. Buy a storage tank or tanks for Gasoline, their are appropriate approved containers for sale.

Now lets subsidize yourself in Gasoline use.

When Oil goes up on the Spot Market a couple bucks, run to the gas pump and buy as much as you can.

Then wait, until the rise in price at the local market.

Cash in buy selling your gas to your friends cheaper than the open market but more expensive than you bought it.


This idea came from a Mom/Pop Gas station. They are bound by contract to follow the rules of selling and the price at which to sell. But a third party person will buy their supply at the contracted rules, and hold it until the price raises. They then will buy it back from the third party guy for a little more than what they sold it for.  It is a Win/Win.  The can no compete with the big boys, make more of a profit, and still offer the cheapest gas in town.

If they can do it on a larger scale, why can't we do it on a smaller scale?

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April 12, 2011, 04:12:24 PM
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I almost did this with crude oil a few months ago, before all the Libya stuff.  Tanks are expensive though, and cost scales as the cube root of volume.  That's the reason it doesn't happen on a small scale.

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April 12, 2011, 04:17:26 PM
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I know you can store diesel for extended periods but what about petrol? I think it has a much shorter shelf life.
I know your talking about short term trading but what if I want to store it for a few months and make a killing  Grin

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April 12, 2011, 04:20:36 PM
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That and you will blow yourself up trying to store and transfer large volumes of petroleum.

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April 12, 2011, 04:31:53 PM
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I would think safety is a big consideration with above ground storage.

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April 12, 2011, 04:43:04 PM
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Home heating oil is the same as diesel but, at least where I live, you don't pay as much tax for it as you do at the gas station. However, home heating oil has a dye in it. If an authority discovers fuel with that dye in your vehicle's tank, you're in trouble.

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wb3
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April 12, 2011, 04:44:21 PM
 #7

The third party I mentioned uses a Petrol truck. Gasoline above and or below storage has the same principles, the LEL, and static. Fill the tank from the bottom up, and a full tank is better than an empty tank.

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April 12, 2011, 04:47:45 PM
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I think the better / simpler option would be to convince the owner of the pump nearest to you to sell you gas but keep it till you need it. You could go all fancy and arrange for a 'fidelity card' approach so your friends *cough*clients*cough* could go to the pump and just use some of your pre paid fuel.

It wouldn't scale too high, as it would obviously raise suspicions to the fuel provider but it would solve the issue with storage... Say you give a little extra "on the side" to the pump owner and he allows you to keep an inverted tab, and you SMS him "Today the car with such license plate will come in for x gallons".

Of course the POS system they use will probably make this impossible, but maybe there's still a manually operated pump close to you?
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April 12, 2011, 04:49:07 PM
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Home heating oil is the same as diesel but, at least where I live, you don't pay as much tax for it as you do at the gas station. However, home heating oil has a dye in it. If an authority discovers fuel with that dye in your vehicle's tank, you're in trouble.

Of all the times I have been pulled over in my life, about 6. Police never checked my fuel tank. However, I do know that check points for the big diesel trucks have the tanks checked on a random basis.

Another good method is if you live by the Ocean. Becomes friends with a shrimper. Oh, and have diesel truck or car.  The shrimper can by diesel tax free, and are know to sell it.

Shrimpers are actually a little market place, you can buy diesel, tax free cigarettes, tax free liquor, if they picked up and bails, even some MJ. OH yea, of course they sell shrimp too.  Grin

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April 12, 2011, 04:57:31 PM
 #10

Of all the times I have been pulled over in my life, about 6. Police never checked my fuel tank. However, I do know that check points for the big diesel trucks have the tanks checked on a random basis.
Of course, they're the biggest fish.

Quote
Another good method is if you live by the Ocean. Becomes friends with a shrimper. Oh, and have diesel truck or car.  The shrimper can by diesel tax free, and are know to sell it.

Shrimpers are actually a little market place, you can buy diesel, tax free cigarettes, tax free liquor, if they picked up and bails, even some MJ. OH yea, of course they sell shrimp too.  Grin
Neato.

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April 12, 2011, 05:39:04 PM
 #11

Not sure if this is legal by a Regulation Point of view, but by a Win/Win trade between friends there is nothing wrong with it.

Here it is:

The price of Oil on the market doesn't reach the pump for 30 to 40 days. So here is what you do. Buy a storage tank or tanks for Gasoline, their are appropriate approved containers for sale.


What makes you think this is true?
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April 12, 2011, 06:08:45 PM
 #12

Simple research that anyone can do.  Chart the Spot Oil, and the avg. Gas price and overlay.

Basically it is called Time to Market(TTM).  You buy something at a $1 for a future delivery. So when you get the delivery you must charge at least $1.

Unlike electricity, the Oil that we buy has to be shipped to us, refined, and shipped to gas stations. That takes about 30-40 days depending on schedules and delays.

Now you can't take advantage of that fact on a stock exchange because of instantaneous communications (electricity, ie internet) but you can take of advantage of it through the physical product delivery.

And with the shelf life of Non-Ethonal gas at 180 days, and ethanol gas at 90 days. You can even wait for a peak or set margin before you sell.

Currently I am looking into it. I found a 400 Gallon approved container cheep. at 3.63 X 400 = 1448  now a little birdy I know tells me his next purchase is 8 cents more. But a bigger birdy tells me that gas will hit at least a 4.00 average within 60 days. That would be $1600 dollars or a $152 profit. 

But I don't want to make money, I just want to Hedge the gas by buy low, and mitigating the costs while it rises by using my own fuel I purchase when it was lower. Not to mention, I get a built in emergency supply.

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April 12, 2011, 09:21:22 PM
 #13

Simple research that anyone can do.  Chart the Spot Oil, and the avg. Gas price and overlay.

Basically it is called Time to Market(TTM).  You buy something at a $1 for a future delivery. So when you get the delivery you must charge at least $1.

Unlike electricity, the Oil that we buy has to be shipped to us, refined, and shipped to gas stations. That takes about 30-40 days depending on schedules and delays.

Now you can't take advantage of that fact on a stock exchange because of instantaneous communications (electricity, ie internet) but you can take of advantage of it through the physical product delivery.

And with the shelf life of Non-Ethonal gas at 180 days, and ethanol gas at 90 days. You can even wait for a peak or set margin before you sell.

Currently I am looking into it. I found a 400 Gallon approved container cheep. at 3.63 X 400 = 1448  now a little birdy I know tells me his next purchase is 8 cents more. But a bigger birdy tells me that gas will hit at least a 4.00 average within 60 days. That would be $1600 dollars or a $152 profit. 

But I don't want to make money, I just want to Hedge the gas by buy low, and mitigating the costs while it rises by using my own fuel I purchase when it was lower. Not to mention, I get a built in emergency supply.


You are assuming that gas stations price their gas based on what they paid for it, rather than what the expect to pay for their next shipment.  They have the same information as you.
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April 12, 2011, 10:58:41 PM
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Simple research that anyone can do.  Chart the Spot Oil, and the avg. Gas price and overlay.

Basically it is called Time to Market(TTM).  You buy something at a $1 for a future delivery. So when you get the delivery you must charge at least $1.

Unlike electricity, the Oil that we buy has to be shipped to us, refined, and shipped to gas stations. That takes about 30-40 days depending on schedules and delays.

Now you can't take advantage of that fact on a stock exchange because of instantaneous communications (electricity, ie internet) but you can take of advantage of it through the physical product delivery.

And with the shelf life of Non-Ethonal gas at 180 days, and ethanol gas at 90 days. You can even wait for a peak or set margin before you sell.

Currently I am looking into it. I found a 400 Gallon approved container cheep. at 3.63 X 400 = 1448  now a little birdy I know tells me his next purchase is 8 cents more. But a bigger birdy tells me that gas will hit at least a 4.00 average within 60 days. That would be $1600 dollars or a $152 profit. 

But I don't want to make money, I just want to Hedge the gas by buy low, and mitigating the costs while it rises by using my own fuel I purchase when it was lower. Not to mention, I get a built in emergency supply.


You are assuming that gas stations price their gas based on what they paid for it, rather than what the expect to pay for their next shipment.  They have the same information as you.

In the U.S. the contracts that Gas Station owners get from the suppliers, limit the mark up. Basically they are told what they will make off of each gallon sold. And it is small, as the contract has a NDA attached. Most owners bitch about the paltry amount they get from the supplier.  Unless your a big station, you don't make much off of gas. Better hope they come into your store. If you noticed, they sometime use the trick of not putting paper in the pump, so you must walk into the store to get it.

And over and above the contract, the government has strict rules on gas pricing. Although this came about from price gouging after disasters.  Personally I don't think the needed the laws, as the owners that tried it after Katrina became pariahs afterwards. They still get called names.

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April 12, 2011, 11:28:40 PM
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Simple research that anyone can do.  Chart the Spot Oil, and the avg. Gas price and overlay.

Basically it is called Time to Market(TTM).  You buy something at a $1 for a future delivery. So when you get the delivery you must charge at least $1.

Unlike electricity, the Oil that we buy has to be shipped to us, refined, and shipped to gas stations. That takes about 30-40 days depending on schedules and delays.

Now you can't take advantage of that fact on a stock exchange because of instantaneous communications (electricity, ie internet) but you can take of advantage of it through the physical product delivery.

And with the shelf life of Non-Ethonal gas at 180 days, and ethanol gas at 90 days. You can even wait for a peak or set margin before you sell.

Currently I am looking into it. I found a 400 Gallon approved container cheep. at 3.63 X 400 = 1448  now a little birdy I know tells me his next purchase is 8 cents more. But a bigger birdy tells me that gas will hit at least a 4.00 average within 60 days. That would be $1600 dollars or a $152 profit. 

But I don't want to make money, I just want to Hedge the gas by buy low, and mitigating the costs while it rises by using my own fuel I purchase when it was lower. Not to mention, I get a built in emergency supply.


You are assuming that gas stations price their gas based on what they paid for it, rather than what the expect to pay for their next shipment.  They have the same information as you.

In the U.S. the contracts that Gas Station owners get from the suppliers, limit the mark up. Basically they are told what they will make off of each gallon sold. And it is small, as the contract has a NDA attached. Most owners bitch about the paltry amount they get from the supplier.  Unless your a big station, you don't make much off of gas. Better hope they come into your store. If you noticed, they sometime use the trick of not putting paper in the pump, so you must walk into the store to get it.

And over and above the contract, the government has strict rules on gas pricing. Although this came about from price gouging after disasters.  Personally I don't think the needed the laws, as the owners that tried it after Katrina became pariahs afterwards. They still get called names.

So why haven't any gas station owners decided to just stop selling gas (hoard it until they can charge more), and make all this money?  Are they all stupid?

I have no idea where you are getting this information that suppliers force them to sell it under a certain price.  Competition generally does that.  If what you are saying is actually true, how come I can drive past one station the next day, yet the prices rises $.15/gallon sometimes (even when a new tanker hasn't arrived)?  Prices fluctuate daily on gas stations, and it certainly isn't because they are getting new shipments.

So your theory is that there are suppliers that control the retail price (but it still changes daily), and the government limits the price increase (but it changes daily)?  Do you have any facts or is this all speculation?
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April 13, 2011, 01:17:39 AM
 #16

OK, I know you have no idea !!!  Agreed.

Where do these gas stations get their gas from, BP Stations from BP, Shell from Shell, etc...  Most of these have franchise contracts, these contracts, control pricing.  Sorry just the way it is. 

Now, lets assume you want to go it alone and be none franchisee, and buy gas.  Where do you get it from? Well you don't have to many options, BP, Shell, Chevron, Citgo, ExxonMobile, etc...  You will not get the Franchise rate, you will pay a premium.  But then you can set the Profit Margin yourself, but to what end. Your price by design will be higher than everyone else.

Here is an excerpt about Divorcement Law:

Independent retailers often have difficulty surviving in industries marked by a high degree of vertical integration. In the petroleum industry, for example, many gas stations are owned and operated by oil refineries. These companies are able to control the wholesale price of gasoline sold to locally owned franchise stations. They also set the going rate at the pump through company-operated stations. By narrowing the difference between the wholesale and retail prices, oil refiners can squeeze independent and franchise gas stations out of the market.

But don't believe me, go ask a locally owned operator. He will tell you.


However, if you happen to have a oil well in your back yard, own a refinery, and a gas station. Your set, charge what you want.

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April 13, 2011, 02:55:22 AM
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OK, I know you have no idea !!!  Agreed.

Where do these gas stations get their gas from, BP Stations from BP, Shell from Shell, etc...  Most of these have franchise contracts, these contracts, control pricing.  Sorry just the way it is. 

Now, lets assume you want to go it alone and be none franchisee, and buy gas.  Where do you get it from? Well you don't have to many options, BP, Shell, Chevron, Citgo, ExxonMobile, etc...  You will not get the Franchise rate, you will pay a premium.  But then you can set the Profit Margin yourself, but to what end. Your price by design will be higher than everyone else.

Here is an excerpt about Divorcement Law:

Independent retailers often have difficulty surviving in industries marked by a high degree of vertical integration. In the petroleum industry, for example, many gas stations are owned and operated by oil refineries. These companies are able to control the wholesale price of gasoline sold to locally owned franchise stations. They also set the going rate at the pump through company-operated stations. By narrowing the difference between the wholesale and retail prices, oil refiners can squeeze independent and franchise gas stations out of the market.

But don't believe me, go ask a locally owned operator. He will tell you.


However, if you happen to have a oil well in your back yard, own a refinery, and a gas station. Your set, charge what you want.

Having a franchise contract doesn't mean you can't set your own prices.  Obviously they won't sell gas to franchises super cheap.  But that doesn't mean that they can't charge more because of whatever reason they want.  It's just competition keeps them from setting them too high.

Do you have any evidence of this?  Or is it your own made up conspiracy theory?  Because I have seen gas prices skyrocket overnight due to the oil futures market going up huge.  I've seen it drop huge overnight as well.

You are telling me that every independent gas station owner and franchisee, who already has huge tanks, couldn't just stop selling gas for a week to make this extra profit?  They already have 10-20,000 gallon tanks.  If the price goes up by 10 cents, they could make an extra $1-2000 by just holding the gas.  So why don't they do this?  You are the only genius, and people who already have the infrastructure in place are all idiots?

It's funny, most people have the opposite complaint you do.  "Gas went up 20 cents last night, but they still have the same gas in the tank they paid for last night!  That's gouging!  They bought it cheap, the should sell it cheap!"  This is the exact thing you are claiming they cannot do.

The reason they do this, of course, is because 1) they can, and 2) sometimes the price goes down, and they need to sell current inventory.  They are much more likely to sell gas at the price they expect to refill their tanks at than whatever they paid for the last tank.

Go to any gold coin dealer, same thing.  If you sell them a coin for $1400, and then gold drops to $1350 next week, your coin is not going to still be for sale for $1425.  It will be for sale at $1375 (or whatever premium exists).  Same thing if you sell it to them when its $1400/oz, and it goes up to $1500/oz.  That coin won't be sold for $1500 anymore.  By your logic, you could buy lots of gold coins when the price rises, since by the time the gold dealer restocks his inventory, the price will go up! But he changes his prices often according to the futures market.
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April 13, 2011, 03:29:15 AM
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OK, First I am assuming we are talking in the U.S.  If so, yes I have proof.  For one, one of my friends owns a station. But I know that won't suffice so I will endeavor to source it.

Futures are Futures, not the spot market. The laws in the U.S. is that the price in stations is based of the current supply in the tank at the price for which they paid for it plus mark up.  For example: if you bought gas for your station at $3, held onto it until $4 and then sold the gas, you would get arrested and fined. But that would make no sense for a Gas Station to do (depending on traffic). <-- That is covered by anti-gouging laws. Google them.

So lets source it for you:

Earlier this week, Kehler's wholesale price jumped by 4 cents a gallon. The price is set by Sunoco Inc., from whom he leases his gas station and is contractually obligated to buy.

Shipments arrive overnight, whenever a remote sensor tells Sunoco that Kehler's tanks are low. The wholesale increase means Kehler will have to raise his pump prices soon -- if he wants a shot at breaking even on gas sales.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-05-23-1070321808_x.htm



Proposed law would allow gas stations to set fuel prices
http://www.virginiagasprices.com/News_Page.aspx?msg_pg=2&id=35700&master=1&category=1357&topic=437086&page_no=1&ign=1



Just like independent owners, he records nearby competitors' prices, the manager said. But rather than adjusting his, he reports his survey results to his company - to what Beachler called the chain's "pricing office." From there, he's told what prices to post for the day, or at least until he's told to survey again.
"Believe me, that guy in his (pricing office) cubicle knows what's going on" with the competition around his company's stations, Beachler said.
Chain station pricing offices and independents also check on the wholesale prices that major gas suppliers set late each day for gas to be bought the next morning from terminals where the suppliers send it from refineries, usually by pipeline.

http://www.pjstar.com/business/x61381715/Who-sets-the-gas-prices-Thats-not-an-easy-answer

And each State has Gasoline Pricing Laws. New Jersey will even prosecute you if you raise the price twice in a day. You can google the laws yourself.

As far as the Franchise contracts for the stations, I won't disclose my friends. But he is told by a Pricing Office what the price will be for the day.

If however, you are connected to the fuel via a pipeline to the station, the price will and can actually change hourly if the state allows it.


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April 13, 2011, 01:19:07 PM
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OK, First I am assuming we are talking in the U.S.  If so, yes I have proof.  For one, one of my friends owns a station. But I know that won't suffice so I will endeavor to source it.

Futures are Futures, not the spot market. The laws in the U.S. is that the price in stations is based of the current supply in the tank at the price for which they paid for it plus mark up.  For example: if you bought gas for your station at $3, held onto it until $4 and then sold the gas, you would get arrested and fined. But that would make no sense for a Gas Station to do (depending on traffic). <-- That is covered by anti-gouging laws. Google them.

So lets source it for you:

Earlier this week, Kehler's wholesale price jumped by 4 cents a gallon. The price is set by Sunoco Inc., from whom he leases his gas station and is contractually obligated to buy.

Shipments arrive overnight, whenever a remote sensor tells Sunoco that Kehler's tanks are low. The wholesale increase means Kehler will have to raise his pump prices soon -- if he wants a shot at breaking even on gas sales.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-05-23-1070321808_x.htm



Proposed law would allow gas stations to set fuel prices
http://www.virginiagasprices.com/News_Page.aspx?msg_pg=2&id=35700&master=1&category=1357&topic=437086&page_no=1&ign=1



Just like independent owners, he records nearby competitors' prices, the manager said. But rather than adjusting his, he reports his survey results to his company - to what Beachler called the chain's "pricing office." From there, he's told what prices to post for the day, or at least until he's told to survey again.
"Believe me, that guy in his (pricing office) cubicle knows what's going on" with the competition around his company's stations, Beachler said.
Chain station pricing offices and independents also check on the wholesale prices that major gas suppliers set late each day for gas to be bought the next morning from terminals where the suppliers send it from refineries, usually by pipeline.

http://www.pjstar.com/business/x61381715/Who-sets-the-gas-prices-Thats-not-an-easy-answer

And each State has Gasoline Pricing Laws. New Jersey will even prosecute you if you raise the price twice in a day. You can google the laws yourself.

As far as the Franchise contracts for the stations, I won't disclose my friends. But he is told by a Pricing Office what the price will be for the day.

If however, you are connected to the fuel via a pipeline to the station, the price will and can actually change hourly if the state allows it.



Do you not understand the difference between wholesale and retail prices?  Is that where the source of confusion is coming from?  Yes, the owners do take advantage of using a bigger companies surveying power to assess competitors prices.  Is that the same as "we can't raise prices because of the futures market?"  So even if the man owning the franchise is not making his decision (it comes from above), what makes you think that decision from above is not influenced hugely by oil futures prices?

Sure, some states will only let you raise it once a day.  So it may be possible to get a good deal 1 day to the next. 
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April 13, 2011, 03:05:34 PM
 #20

Yes, I do.  Your right, go along with it. Keep the bubble intact.

I am just Delusional,  Grin   I do like playing chess however. There is no price fixing by mandatory mark ups of 7-11 cents. It just doesn't exist.

Tell you what, go find the most remote gas station in America, call it for its Gas Prices. It should be the most expensive gas in the country. You can subtract all the taxes from everywhere to get the baseline. 

BTW: the biggest reason in differences in prices it the TAXES, the FED, State, and Localities charge.

IF the most remotest gas station in America has the highest or even a high gas price, I will concede.  But it won't.

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