Jim Rickards' New Book "The Death of Money", Review

[Dr Bloggood]

Dude, keep your cool and read that phrase you quoted and my OP again carefully! Your anger is making you adress the wrong people. I would say 0,7% is pretty rocking compared to what's happening in Spain, Italy, Greece or Portugal.

I'm basically of your opinion, and I think this could be as bad or worse than the great depression. You are smarter than me, because you know it will start exactly in 2015 (so 7th of May 2015 or what) and know exactly how bad it will be. I don't know when it will start or how bad exactly it will become.

I am not angry. I am trying to wake you up from your complacency.

What part of 200 year debt highs do you fail to grasp?

Can you read?

Do you seriously suggest things are as bad in Germany as they are in Italy, Spain or Greece?

This ego shit is too stupid, let's not continue this.

[AnonyMint]

Dude, keep your cool and read that phrase you quoted and my OP again carefully! Your anger is making you adress the wrong people. I would say 0,7% is pretty rocking compared to what's happening in Spain, Italy, Greece or Portugal.

I'm basically of your opinion, and I think this could be as bad or worse than the great depression. You are smarter than me, because you know it will start exactly in 2015 (so 7th of May 2015 or what) and know exactly how bad it will be. I don't know when it will start or how bad exactly it will become.

I am not angry. I am trying to wake you up from your complacency.

What part of 200 year debt highs do you fail to grasp?

Can you read?

Do you seriously suggest things are as bad in Germany as they are in Italy, Spain or Greece?

This ego shit is too stupid, let's not continue this.

I suggest that you are complacent about half of the municipalities are bankrupt in Germany. The shit is going to hit fan in Germany in another year or two.

You are not prepared for what is coming.

It will be global contagion and yes it will get as bad in Germany as it is in Greece now.

France will fry next before Germany does.

[LAMarcellus]

lol
"Greece just needs a better tax system"

Paying taxes to government is like paying $50 for a Big Mac.

[jparsley]

Nice book

[Dr Bloggood]

lol
"Greece just needs a better tax system"

Paying taxes to government is like paying $50 for a Big Mac.

That's not my quote, I didn't say that. Reading really isn't that hard.

One of the problems before the crisis was that those $50 were not collected. Not sure how the situation is currently. I hear Greeks are taxed into oblivion right now.

[STT]

The worst tax is always going to be that which discourages the most productive activities in a country.    Tax on alcohol is practically genius compared to taxing a company attempting to make a profit and employ people.    Even worse is when they tax by proxy by forcing companies to piggyback gov policy like Obama likes to do.
The greatest mistakes are those repeated often.   Obama has tax on companies which employ more then 50 people, so discouraging employment.   Greece I bet has similar tactics in their war on profit http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Window_tax


We had a Greek politician on the news the other day and I was surprised to hear some sense.  She said their problem is not fiscal but structural, even while people praise the Greek recovery; their recent ability to issue new debt.   The real problem is their failure to allow free trade and business, they have the same old over governance, endless laws on how to operate legally & too high taxes that works to stop honest use of Greece by the Greeks to do business with the world.
  The EU is famous for its throttling and destructive regulations, they didnt fix it they reinforced that system apparently

half of the municipalities are bankrupt in Germany

I thought that was why everyone was eager to save Greece.  Germany liabilities abroad are great but as its a great exporter it should be in a strong position to determine terms but you say not

[tabnloz]

Inreresting thread, interesting book.

I really took a lot from Currency Wars and the SDR theory continues in DoM.

A question I ask myself is whether any upcoming crisis will follow the pattern of previous ones or will it be 'new'?

[Dr Bloggood]

We had a Greek politician on the news the other day and I was surprised to hear some sense.  She said their problem is not fiscal but structural, even while people praise the Greek recovery; their recent ability to issue new debt.   The real problem is their failure to allow free trade and business, they have the same old over governance, endless laws on how to operate legally & too high taxes that works to stop honest use of Greece by the Greeks to do business with the world.

Rickards, in the book, writes a lot about structural problems which are treated as if they were cyclical problems.

[Dr Bloggood]

A question I ask myself is whether any upcoming crisis will follow the pattern of previous ones or will it be 'new'?

Both.

On one hand, history always repeats itself. Human psychology stays exactly the same.

On the other hand, the mistakes made now are very different from the mistakes made in, say, the great depression. People learn from the old mistakes and make differnt new ones. Conditions are a bit different too. So it can't be exactly the same.

It's all very complicated...

[BugSpirit]

Thanks a lot, Doc, i think you save me much time.

[Dr.Zaius]

$7000 Gold will never happen.

Long before that the banking system would have already imploded.

Jim Rickard's is a typical dooms day hack. These guys are all over the place pumping gold and their own books. Ironically they all seem to be reading the same tea leaves or something.

[Dr.Zaius]

Dude, keep your cool and read that phrase you quoted and my OP again carefully! Your anger is making you adress the wrong people. I would say 0,7% is pretty rocking compared to what's happening in Spain, Italy, Greece or Portugal.

I'm basically of your opinion, and I think this could be as bad or worse than the great depression. You are smarter than me, because you know it will start exactly in 2015 (so 7th of May 2015 or what) and know exactly how bad it will be. I don't know when it will start or how bad exactly it will become.

I am not angry. I am trying to wake you up from your complacency.

What part of 200 year debt highs do you fail to grasp?

Can you read?

Do you seriously suggest things are as bad in Germany as they are in Italy, Spain or Greece?

This ego shit is too stupid, let's not continue this.

Actually, Germany may very well be an epicenter for the collapse of the Euro. Why? Because they are a massive creditor. During debt implosions, creditors take huge losses. Creditors tend to watch their economies contract much steeper then debtors. German manufacturing firms are loaded to the hilt with operational debt. Germany continues flooding the world with excess production of vehicles, equipment etc. All financed by debt. The German state itself is not in good shape because of simple demographics. Do you really think all those young Mohammed's in Germany will willfully pay the pensions of Mr and Mrs Hanz?

Germany has imploded it's own economy about 4 times in the last 100 years alone, including some of the worst hyperinflation ever recorded. Let's not forget the wealth loss they are responsible for via 2 world wars. Don't let their propaganda fool you.

[Dr Bloggood]

Dude, keep your cool and read that phrase you quoted and my OP again carefully! Your anger is making you adress the wrong people. I would say 0,7% is pretty rocking compared to what's happening in Spain, Italy, Greece or Portugal.

I'm basically of your opinion, and I think this could be as bad or worse than the great depression. You are smarter than me, because you know it will start exactly in 2015 (so 7th of May 2015 or what) and know exactly how bad it will be. I don't know when it will start or how bad exactly it will become.

I am not angry. I am trying to wake you up from your complacency.

What part of 200 year debt highs do you fail to grasp?

Can you read?

Do you seriously suggest things are as bad in Germany as they are in Italy, Spain or Greece?

This ego shit is too stupid, let's not continue this.

Actually, Germany may very well be an epicenter for the collapse of the Euro. Why? Because they are a massive creditor. During debt implosions, creditors take huge losses. Creditors tend to watch their economies contract much steeper then debtors. German manufacturing firms are loaded to the hilt with operational debt. Germany continues flooding the world with excess production of vehicles, equipment etc. All financed by debt. The German state itself is not in good shape because of simple demographics. Do you really think all those young Mohammed's in Germany will willfully pay the pensions of Mr and Mrs Hanz?

Germany has imploded it's own economy about 4 times in the last 100 years alone, including some of the worst hyperinflation ever recorded. Let's not forget the wealth loss they are responsible for via 2 world wars. Don't let their propaganda fool you.

You are painting a pretty dark picture there. Who knows whqat might happen. As I said, Germany is gonna get dragged down with the rest of the countries sooner or later.

Obviously, I was talking present tense though. Things in Germany look pretty normal at the surface (at the moment, at the very present time as we are speaking)! People are becoming increasingly desperate in Greece, Italy and Spain, but they are not desparate at this time, right now, in Germany.

[Dr Bloggood]

Thanks a lot, Doc, i think you save me much time.

No prob. I wish I had saved myself that time, as I was reading the book for the better parts of 4 days... But hey, I also took something with me from it.

[knightcoin]

Thanks op for your review

[STT]

Creditors tend to watch their economies contract much steeper then debtors.

This ignores their production.   They dont have to sell to Europe, the arabs will still have oil, the Russians gas and so on.   In the end people sell so they can buy what they need, so the fact Germany has products to export on a regular basis is always going to be a good thing.
I take the point those best off have more to lose in a way but they arent holding a golden egg, they have the hen :p   If europe screws up, or uk or USA then they'll be others with more then just credit notes to hand over and Germany or anyone who produces will be best placed to continue forward.

The mistake Merkel made was being too much in fear of bad debt.  Always there must be focus of what works, the death of a bad company is needed like a tree must be cut back to keep new growth in the right direction.
All of this bailout is to support what has not worked, is not working and in future it still wont be productive so why spend so much to get so little back.  True growth is exponential, 2008 till 2014 and this kind of return is missing presumed dead but its out there

[Dr Bloggood]

Creditors tend to watch their economies contract much steeper then debtors.

This ignores their production.   They dont have to sell to Europe, the arabs will still have oil, the Russians gas and so on.   In the end people sell so they can buy what they need, so the fact Germany has products to export on a regular basis is always going to be a good thing.
I take the point those best off have more to lose in a way but they arent holding a golden egg, they have the hen :p   If europe screws up, or uk or USA then they'll be others with more then just credit notes to hand over and Germany or anyone who produces will be best placed to continue forward.

The mistake Merkel made was being too much in fear of bad debt.  Always there must be focus of what works, the death of a bad company is needed like a tree must be cut back to keep new growth in the right direction.
All of this bailout is to support what has not worked, is not working and in future it still wont be productive so why spend so much to get so little back.  True growth is exponential, 2008 till 2014 and this kind of return is missing presumed dead but its out there

That sounds very reasonable, they are holding the hen! That only helps once they close the "hole in their barrel" and stop paying for the southern countries though.

I have heard rumours Merkel wants to change course, maybe something will happen after the EU elections.

[AnonyMint]

Actually, Germany may very well be an epicenter for the collapse of the Euro. Why? Because they are a massive creditor. During debt implosions, creditors take huge losses. Creditors tend to watch their economies contract much steeper then debtors. German manufacturing firms are loaded to the hilt with operational debt. Germany continues flooding the world with excess production of vehicles, equipment etc. All financed by debt. The German state itself is not in good shape because of simple demographics. Do you really think all those young Mohammed's in Germany will willfully pay the pensions of Mr and Mrs Hanz?

Germany has imploded it's own economy about 4 times in the last 100 years alone, including some of the worst hyperinflation ever recorded. Let's not forget the wealth loss they are responsible for via 2 world wars. Don't let their propaganda fool you.

There is a massive level of overcapacity in manufacturing in the world. China's manufacturers are learning how to sell direct, check out http://dhgate.com

DHGate holds the funds until the shipped products are received. Thus you can deal confidently with direct suppliers of Chinese manufactured goods.

Watch out Amazon.com! Your days are numbered.

Germany has a negative population growth rate.

Germany's over engineers things and their Cathedral model and culture is not well adapted to fast changing Bazaar type of future of R&D.

Some Germans are so anal, they even write down every item they purchase for home use in a ledger. And some look down on other people as inferior. I have German ancestry (mixed with others) so I understand that perfectionist mindset (I have it on call), but I am thankful I am a mix of cultures so I can adapt.

[OROBTC]

@ Dr Bloggood

I changed my mind and decided to buy Rickards' book.  So far, I am finding much better than I had thought it would be.  I have read a lot of doomer-financial stuff, but Rickards looks like he is very much on top of the game as well as being well-connected.

I'll report back with my own review when I finish it, but it has kick-started some ideas that I will think about and share here if they seem to be good.


EDIT:

@ AnonyMint

I too believe that China will crash hard, and that Germany is at great risk (as is the USA).  Many old models are likely to collapse.  Debt is a killer.

I would agree that there is worldwide overcapacity in most products.  That does not seem to be the case for "tapered roller bearings", we cannot get enough (from Korea anyway).

@ all

Zero Hedge today had a piece on Japan's national debt reaching 1.02 quadrillion Yen...:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-10/japan-debt-update-%C2%A5102000000000000000

***

Disclosure: our Chinese car wheel bearings sell very well in Peru.

[maxzan]

seems an interesting book