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Author Topic: Assumption "bears are stupid"  (Read 1715 times)
Vandroiy
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January 10, 2012, 07:37:28 PM
 #1

Yep, I'm re-using my own thread name as a shameless display how right it was. But this time, it's the other way around. Bears get flamed for no viable reason, and price is just assumed to keep rising.

To me, this is a possible sell signal. There are hints of speculation mania again. Many people cry for more rallies, even though we just had a huge one. A positive feedback between activity and price is already showing once more. This causes conservative speculators to sell, which explains the stagnation of the price and the massive volume. I see three viable scenarios up next: stabilization (unlikely, but not impossible), the bust continuing (buyers burn out before the feedback kicks in, crash begins within the next two weeks), and a hyper-echo-bubble in which the resistance is just flooded with fiat money until buyers burn out.

Why am I telling you this? I'm pretty balanced, so I get out fine either way. If it goes down, I can buy back cheap, if it goes up I'll try to model the bubble again and hope to hit it as neatly as the last one with my remaining coins, which is probably very profitable. There's no immediate huge preference for me. That said, I think about the long-term situation, and that would probably prefer a more down-to-earth approach to Bitcoin value than everyone buying in as much as possible and measuring how high the price can go. Even if one really likes bubbles, we should better do that later, when the community takes less damage from a bust.

And that's why I think we do need a reality check. One that doesn't consist of charts and order books, but of the actual situation. Yes, that is what Edward50 says, and he may have a point there no matter how wrong he was last time.



Finally, even if my points don't make sense, be nice to both bulls and bears. No need to agree, but no need to make it personal.

Happy trading, let's see how this one turns out. Smiley
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arepo
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this statement is false


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January 10, 2012, 07:58:06 PM
 #2

i know i seem a permabull. it's not mania, it's well-informed speculation. i've been vocal because it doesn't matter how strong BTC is, if everyone thinks there's imminent doom it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. so i've been shamelessly slaughtering any bears who make refutable points.

i apologize if it comes off as flaming. it is, of course, important to keep it civil on a discussion board. let's not let BTC come between us, guys [ :

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
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January 10, 2012, 08:04:20 PM
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I hope bulls stop going 100% long, regardless of enthusiasm, and leave at least 10% of their stake short to catch dips and help fill in the bid order book.  No one can predict with 100% certainly that no one else will make a 20k btc sell at any moment, and everyone should keep at least a small buy order visible on MtGoxLive to help reduce the impact of these drops.  They can, have, and will continue to happen: might as well profit from them.

I agree that seeing unreasonably bullish behavior at >$7 last week was a good sell signal, with a >$2 rise in 2 days.  But I think we're back to a more balanced position again, with a return to $7 this week as panic buying fiat makes its way to the exchanges.  After that, I don't know: I think there's a good chance bitcoin may plateau in the $6-$8 range for a few weeks.

StewartJ
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January 10, 2012, 08:12:32 PM
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I hope bulls stop going 100% long, regardless of enthusiasm, and leave at least 10% of their stake short to catch dips and help fill in the bid order book.  No one can predict with 100% certainly that no one else will make a 20k btc sell at any moment, and everyone should keep at least a small buy order visible on MtGoxLive to help reduce the impact of these drops.  They can, have, and will continue to happen: might as well profit from them.

I agree that seeing unreasonably bullish behavior at >$7 last week was a good sell signal, with a >$2 rise in 2 days.  But I think we're back to a more balanced position again, with a return to $7 this week as panic buying fiat makes its way to the exchanges.  After that, I don't know: I think there's a good chance bitcoin may plateau in the $6-$8 range for a few weeks.



I agree. The correction down to the $6 was in order. Things feels more balanced now.

I like your 10% and small buy advice, hopefully others will too.

micolin
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January 10, 2012, 08:58:13 PM
 #5

Maybe I am stupid, but I bet <$6 for tomorrow  Wink
StewartJ
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January 10, 2012, 09:12:37 PM
 #6

Maybe I am stupid, but I bet <$6 for tomorrow  Wink


I will bet you 1 BTC

If interested, lets set the betting parameters: time frame, exchange BTC addresses, etc.

You can PM me.

micolin
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January 10, 2012, 09:48:33 PM
 #7

ok. Let's bet.

amount: 1BTC

bitcoin<$6 anytime in next 24h.

Now: Time in the message

My BTC address: 1BdEiPs1QDRLi3Wy5KM3kqAVVZPFMgFjpy

¿All right?
Sitarow
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January 10, 2012, 09:49:40 PM
 #8

oh man you two are punks!  Cool A real bet would of been if the Bitcoin value moves at least $1 from its present price Up or down! You choose which way it will go.
oakpacific
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January 11, 2012, 02:40:50 PM
 #9

I am(and I believe many people are) not against bears, just permabears like Edward50. If you believe Bitcoin will never have a future under whatever circumstances, there is simply no proper reason for you to be in this forum and waste everyone's time in the first place.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
yogi
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Hamster ate my bitcoin


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January 11, 2012, 02:57:12 PM
 #10

Quote
so i've been shamelessly slaughtering any bears who make refutable points.

That's . . . not a very nice way to treat a bear!

Nesetalis
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January 11, 2012, 03:09:50 PM
 #11

Without the bears, the bulls have nothing to buy :O
So I like bears! ^.~

ZOMG Moo!
cypherdoc
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January 11, 2012, 03:11:35 PM
 #12

i love all the Bears who were dumping and shorting into me @ $2.  thank you.
micolin
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January 11, 2012, 07:41:46 PM
 #13

In fact, I am not a Bear, I am a Bull, but on the long run. On a shorter time scale, I am a little bear and I still think we'll see the $5 in coming days.
sgbett
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January 11, 2012, 08:30:40 PM
 #14

In fact, I am not a Bear, I am a Bull, but on the long run. On a shorter time scale, I am a little bear and I still think we'll see the $5 in coming days.


I'm with you, orders all the wait down to <$1 just my play money though. Keep holding a chunk of BTC long whatever. If we do go to the moon I don't want to be left out Cheesy


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