Déja vu or coincidence? can anyone who knows the market explain?

[Bytas]

So, recently the bitcoin course has been strangely familiar to me, and i'm wondering if it's just coincidence, or if in fact, there really is a reason for this.
I have far too little experience with this whole thing to make a conclusion out of it, but maybe someone out there who knows his economics can tell me why the market is behaving like that. Maybe i'm just seeing patterns that really don't exist, i don't know.


Discuss!

[1714734820]

1714734820

[1714734820]

1714734820

[Malin Keshar]

I gave up of trying to find patterns on bitcoins graphics, btc refuses to follow technical analysis.
 
In 2013 we had not the Chinese baning games, so things are different now. If they keep manipulating the market, think we will a stable or maybe descending pattern, if they stop doing that or the rest of world stop to care about them, and btc addoption widespreat, think a pattern like the 2013 one might repeat. But by coincidence, because technical bitcoin charts analysis is a failure.

[Bytas]

Oh ok.


but, but.... :s





You know, maybe everyone is taking this whole china thing way too serious... What if it actually is a pretty little excuse everyone tells to themselves?
"Oh, bitcoin price is falling, probably due to china bans again!"

[Lauda]

This does look like a pattern, can't really be an coincidence. So we are supposed to expect the price to rise from now on.

[Tzupy]

Your wave count claims the market is a similar condition with late July 2013.
My count claims it is similar to late June 2013. And the bottom is yet to come.

[Lauda]

Your wave count claims the market is a similar condition with late July 2013.
My count claims it is similar to late June 2013. And the bottom is yet to come.

I saw there in July, watching everything (lots of free time). That was expected back then actually. I'd rather want this to be the bottom now, but who knows.

[binderclip]

What you are seeing are speculative parabolic waves up that break once the buying panic is over. Then the price crashes, dip buyers come in, but there's not enough demand to reach new highs. People who bought during the buying panic take the chance to unload into the bounce. Then volume dries up and the price drifts down to where the buying panic started. Bargain hunters come in and accumulate over time which gradually increases the price.
However that's not to say the price will go up from here. But if I wanted to invest in more coins I would be buying some here. Then more if it goes further down.

[r34tr783tr78]

The difference in both patterns is that you have a new major low now, at 339.

[Elwar]

Buying now is like buying last year around $100.

[alexeft]

......

Nice observation! Thanks! 

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Buying NEXT WEEK is like buying last year around $100.

fixed, it's better now.
Still depends if the 10th may deadline brings closure to this china situation or not. If not, we will end up like this waiting for the trend reversal:

[oda.krell]

So, recently the bitcoin course has been strangely familiar to me, and i'm wondering if it's just coincidence, or if in fact, there really is a reason for this.
I have far too little experience with this whole thing to make a conclusion out of it, but maybe someone out there who knows his economics can tell me why the market is behaving like that. Maybe i'm just seeing patterns that really don't exist, i don't know.

[...]
Discuss!

There are some similarities in the price graph, agreed, but a closer look (including metrics based on volume) make me doubt the similarity is more than superficial.



(in short, the clues are: (a) price failing to break through, or even stay near, a near-to-the-daily-price running average like the monthly EMA, (b) daily CMF approaching zero this time, while steadily rising in July 2013)