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Author Topic: Well guys. The rally is over.  (Read 3194 times)
Vandroiy
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January 13, 2012, 11:34:57 PM
 #21

this. think long-term guys. the MACD hasn't even crossed the EXP yet, the price seems pretty stable, and we could rally within the week.

You're a go player. Please read what you are writing there again and re-think it. Come on, you know this is not how things work. When you play, do you think about what the moves from the current game's past tell you about the situation, or about the situation and possible future moves?

Prices don't move by some magical information encoded into past prices. The price has no opinion, and also isn't something that actually moves. It's two people deciding to exchange something, affected by a lot of things that do not necessarily relate to past trades on the same market.

I do chartism sometimes, and I admit it. But I would never do so without having an off-market model to back it up. I have heard hundreds of chartist theories, all but a single one turned out bad, and the remaining one is only valid in bubble context, plus I have no idea just how useful it is. Throwing in magic words without any information on the market context, model, reasoning why it should apply this very moment is nonsensical! If that works just in the slightest, write a bot and get rich without lifting a finger!

No offense really... but be a little careful with the voodoo. It's not about whether it's right this time or last time or in some context, it's about drawing all the attention toward trying to decode information that just isn't there.

TL;DR: Chartism that needs no context is fishy, check the reasoning.
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Qoheleth
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January 14, 2012, 12:47:08 AM
 #22

If you guys think about it, bitcoin doesn't mean much except for a small group of people with millions in USD and everyone on this forum. I believe that bitcoins are not worth 6.50, not even 10 or 15 or 20. The correct price for bitcoin is around 1 usd to 3 usd. If you want bitcoins to be around 5 10 15 20 or even 100 usd, come back in 10 years.
If this is what you believe then it's insanity for you to be 1500BTC long. You should be waiting until it normalizes and then investing.

If you guys think about it, bitcoin doesn't mean much except for a small group of people with millions in USD and everyone on this forum. I believe that bitcoins are not worth 6.50, not even 10 or 15 or 20. The correct price for bitcoin is around 1 usd to 3 usd. If you want bitcoins to be around 5 10 15 20 or even 100 usd, come back in 10 years.

Hang on you think you ought to be getting any product for less than half the electrical cost to make it, what a genius?
The electrical cost to make a Bitcoin varies with the difficulty, which varies with the price. If Bitcoin were to fall to 3USD tomorrow, people would stop mining until the difficulty dropped enough to make 1BTC worth the cost to mine again.

Price affects mining difficulty, not the other way around. Cost to mine has no bearing on what BTC are "worth" (which is more a matter of BTC in circulation versus sum value of goods in the BTC economy).

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
Sitarow
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January 14, 2012, 12:50:37 AM
 #23

Seems the general opinion is that Bitcoin is overvalued at the moment.

I wonder how long until that sentiment swings back in the undervalued area.

2hrs? 2 days? 2 weeks? 2 months? 2 years?
incraft3817
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January 14, 2012, 03:18:56 AM
 #24

I told you guys to short it. Made a nice chunk off it.  Tongue
StewartJ
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January 14, 2012, 04:02:25 AM
 #25

I did ok on the way down so far

watching for possible base forming 6-6.25...no way to know

$6.25 looks like the support line, fairly predictable.
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January 14, 2012, 12:44:51 PM
 #26

Seems like 6.25 has fanatical support.

zby
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January 14, 2012, 01:23:00 PM
 #27

Seems like 6.25 has fanatical support.
Just like 6.4 had fantastical support 2 days ago?
anu
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January 14, 2012, 02:02:03 PM
 #28

There will be a dump before the bitcoin show starts. Buy on rumors and sell on news. The trend is heading down back to possibly 3 maybe even 2. My crystal ball say short, short, short!

No need to go through Bitcoinica. I am willing to buy BTC 20K for $2 at June 30. PM me if you're interested.

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proudhon
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January 14, 2012, 09:05:46 PM
 #29

This thread.



Hmm, so you're saying we should buy?
waspoza
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January 14, 2012, 09:08:50 PM
 #30

Hmm, so you're saying we should buy?

Obviously, dont you see the bull triangle on this chart?
arepo
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this statement is false


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January 15, 2012, 12:05:42 AM
 #31

This thread.



this graph is beyond retarded. not only is it inane, but the data set is completely unfit for a line graph >.< it hurtss

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
notme
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January 15, 2012, 12:11:19 AM
 #32

This thread.



this graph is beyond retarded. not only is it inane, but the data set is completely unfit for a line graph >.< it hurtss

A line graph is appropriate if his life consists of the following loop:

|->home->work->truck stop->friend's house->sporting event-|
|------------<--------------<-----------------<---------------------<--------------|

Not entirely unreasonable.  Besides, it shows they prefer to get paid to shit.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
teflone
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You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB


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January 15, 2012, 12:19:02 AM
 #33

This thread.



this graph is beyond retarded. not only is it inane, but the data set is completely unfit for a line graph >.< it hurtss

A line graph is appropriate if his life consists of the following loop:

|->home->work->truck stop->friend's house->sporting event-|
|------------<--------------<-----------------<---------------------<--------------|

Not entirely unreasonable.  Besides, it shows they prefer to get paid to shit.

hahaha.. so true!!!!!!!!

For Canadians by Canadians: Canada's Bitcoin Community - https://www.coinforum.ca/
notme
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January 15, 2012, 12:22:00 AM
 #34

why no time on truck shop ? is there a glory hole   

He's on his way to his friend's house.  The crapper there is usually much cleaner.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
arepo
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this statement is false


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January 15, 2012, 02:56:01 AM
 #35

this. think long-term guys. the MACD hasn't even crossed the EXP yet, the price seems pretty stable, and we could rally within the week.

You're a go player. Please read what you are writing there again and re-think it. Come on, you know this is not how things work. When you play, do you think about what the moves from the current game's past tell you about the situation, or about the situation and possible future moves?

Prices don't move by some magical information encoded into past prices. The price has no opinion, and also isn't something that actually moves. It's two people deciding to exchange something, affected by a lot of things that do not necessarily relate to past trades on the same market.

I do chartism sometimes, and I admit it. But I would never do so without having an off-market model to back it up. I have heard hundreds of chartist theories, all but a single one turned out bad, and the remaining one is only valid in bubble context, plus I have no idea just how useful it is. Throwing in magic words without any information on the market context, model, reasoning why it should apply this very moment is nonsensical! If that works just in the slightest, write a bot and get rich without lifting a finger!

No offense really... but be a little careful with the voodoo. It's not about whether it's right this time or last time or in some context, it's about drawing all the attention toward trying to decode information that just isn't there.

TL;DR: Chartism that needs no context is fishy, check the reasoning.

i am a go player. and the stones on the board contain all of the information i need to determine where is best to play next.

i am not really sure about what you mean by 'chartism that needs no context', but using my chart voodoo has yielded around 50% returns on my investment, just through swing trading at MtGox, just since New Year's. my latest prediction, made just after the giant overnight dump, that we would go no lower than $6, and that the uptrend will continue, has not be proven wrong yet. it is not as if the charts predict the prices, but rather one might get a good sense of where the price could be going by analyzing the data described by the charts. if the MACD is losing momentum, and the RSI, William's %R, and Money Flow are all overbought, then it's likely we are in for a reversal. these kinds of analyses consist of looking at the price and volume data that exists in the single green line on MtGox live, but looking at it through a different lens. all of the charts i use are simple oscillators and such that respond to price and volume, which make up the true 'data base' of a market, and it is price and volume that inform the moves of traders anyway, the same way the configuration of stones on a go board informs each player's very next move.

there is no data in the charts that doesn't exist in the price and volume data, but this does not invalidate their usefulness. graphic representation is one of the best ways to wrap one's head around numbers in the first place. how big is 1,000,000,000 compared to 1,000? you can't fathom such a relationship without graphic representation. as such, the charts visually communicate the relationship between patterns between price and volume in a way that we simply cannot grasp by looking at raw price and volume data.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
teflone
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January 15, 2012, 03:08:16 AM
 #36

this. think long-term guys. the MACD hasn't even crossed the EXP yet, the price seems pretty stable, and we could rally within the week.

You're a go player. Please read what you are writing there again and re-think it. Come on, you know this is not how things work. When you play, do you think about what the moves from the current game's past tell you about the situation, or about the situation and possible future moves?

Prices don't move by some magical information encoded into past prices. The price has no opinion, and also isn't something that actually moves. It's two people deciding to exchange something, affected by a lot of things that do not necessarily relate to past trades on the same market.

I do chartism sometimes, and I admit it. But I would never do so without having an off-market model to back it up. I have heard hundreds of chartist theories, all but a single one turned out bad, and the remaining one is only valid in bubble context, plus I have no idea just how useful it is. Throwing in magic words without any information on the market context, model, reasoning why it should apply this very moment is nonsensical! If that works just in the slightest, write a bot and get rich without lifting a finger!

No offense really... but be a little careful with the voodoo. It's not about whether it's right this time or last time or in some context, it's about drawing all the attention toward trying to decode information that just isn't there.

TL;DR: Chartism that needs no context is fishy, check the reasoning.

i am a go player. and the stones on the board contain all of the information i need to determine where is best to play next.

i am not really sure about what you mean by 'chartism that needs no context', but using my chart voodoo has yielded around 50% returns on my investment, just through swing trading at MtGox, just since New Year's. my latest prediction, made just after the giant overnight dump, that we would go no lower than $6, and that the uptrend will continue, has not be proven wrong yet. it is not as if the charts predict the prices, but rather one might get a good sense of where the price could be going by analyzing the data described by the charts. if the MACD is losing momentum, and the RSI, William's %R, and Money Flow are all overbought, then it's likely we are in for a reversal. these kinds of analyses consist of looking at the price and volume data that exists in the single green line on MtGox live, but looking at it through a different lens. all of the charts i use are simple oscillators and such that respond to price and volume, which make up the true 'data base' of a market, and it is price and volume that inform the moves of traders anyway, the same way the configuration of stones on a go board informs each player's very next move.

there is no data in the charts that doesn't exist in the price and volume data, but this does not invalidate their usefulness. graphic representation is one of the best ways to wrap one's head around numbers in the first place. how big is 1,000,000,000 compared to 1,000? you can't fathom such a relationship without graphic representation. as such, the charts visually communicate the relationship between patterns between price and volume in a way that we simply cannot grasp by looking at raw price and volume data.

What is your Dan ? (spelling)

For Canadians by Canadians: Canada's Bitcoin Community - https://www.coinforum.ca/
arepo
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this statement is false


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January 15, 2012, 03:18:50 AM
 #37

haha i am currently unranked. however, i doubt i am up to 'dan' rankings. last time i was ranked i was at 9 kyu but it was when i was only beginning and have improved greatly since then.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
teflone
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You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB


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January 15, 2012, 03:24:25 AM
 #38

haha i am currently unranked. however, i doubt i am up to 'dan' rankings. last time i was ranked i was at 9 kyu but it was when i was only beginning and have improved greatly since then.

What are the levels ?  many years ago an old roomate of mine claimed he used to play a 10th dan.
I've played it a few times, it was an interesting game.

For Canadians by Canadians: Canada's Bitcoin Community - https://www.coinforum.ca/
arepo
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this statement is false


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January 15, 2012, 03:30:17 AM
 #39

haha i am currently unranked. however, i doubt i am up to 'dan' rankings. last time i was ranked i was at 9 kyu but it was when i was only beginning and have improved greatly since then.

What are the levels ?  many years ago an old roomate of mine claimed he used to play a 10th dan.
I've played it a few times, it was an interesting game.

it is the most complex game in the world.

the rankings are 30-1 kyu, in order of increasing skill. then 1st dan, et cetera.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
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