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Author Topic: I guess lots of geeks got their bonus before Christmas and bought bitcoin  (Read 1629 times)
HorseRider
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January 14, 2012, 01:14:05 AM
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So that this rally is over.

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bittenbob
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January 14, 2012, 01:19:56 AM
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The more people that say its over the more convinced I am that it is just getting started.
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January 14, 2012, 01:25:20 AM
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The more people that say its over the more convinced I am that it is just getting started.

+1 ka-jillion

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January 14, 2012, 01:35:18 AM
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the chain maybe split into 2 ways on 15th Feb.

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January 14, 2012, 01:36:25 AM
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the chain maybe split into 2 ways on 15th Feb.

Source?
teflone
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January 14, 2012, 01:38:06 AM
 #6

Ohhhh, well this is GREAT news...

Built in escrow PEOPLE!!!!



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January 15, 2012, 07:49:39 AM
 #7

the chain maybe split into 2 ways on 15th Feb.

Source?

Search "Gavin" on the forum. We will upgrade the bitcoin protocol on that day.It's most likely that it will be smooth and successful, but there are still uncertainties.

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bittenbob
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January 15, 2012, 08:04:48 AM
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Only thing that comes up under Gavin is your post. I smell some BS.
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January 15, 2012, 08:27:16 AM
 #9

He's referring to this:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=56969.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=58579.0

There is a dispute between some miners and Gavin about how best to implement multi-signature transactions.  It will be resolved peacefully, I'm sure.  However, please thoroughly read those threads and research any terminology you don't understand before commenting.  There's enough bickering interfering with the technical discussion as it is.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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January 15, 2012, 08:31:58 AM
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thanks. i've removed my previous comments here for the sake of keeping it sane.
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January 15, 2012, 08:35:39 AM
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Not sure what to make of that but I can admit when Im wrong. A direct link might have been better to use in the first place.
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January 15, 2012, 08:37:31 AM
 #12

the chain maybe split into 2 ways on 15th Feb.

Source?

Search "Gavin" on the forum. We will upgrade the bitcoin protocol on that day.It's most likely that it will be smooth and successful, but there are still uncertainties.
the search function, only works where you are. go outside of this thread and try again

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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January 15, 2012, 06:32:43 PM
 #13

The traders' decision mostly based following the price trends, not on any "valuation" methods. Only those big players have the ball and power to "make" a trend.

Once the price trends turn around, or even only the trend is not so convincing, the price will crash. I think the price now is at a very vulnerable point. What if after audience of the Good Wife show don't buy in bitcoin? then all the traders confidence will be broken.

Hoarders will be coming in when the price is low, and the lower the price, the hoarders are easy to win the psychological game of "who-decide-trend?-up-or-down", then again, we have up trend.



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January 15, 2012, 06:40:51 PM
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Once the price trends turn around, or even only the trend is not so convincing, the price will crash. I think the price now is at a very vulnerable point. What if after audience of the Good Wife show don't buy in bitcoin? then all the traders confidence will be broken.


Anyone basing their confidence upon a generic legal drama that happens to have a bitcoin episode is making really poor decisions. Most audience members will have zero reason to think bitcoin is anything more then a fictional idea made up for a fictional show. I'm not getting excited and expecting this to raise the price at all. Sure is fun that bitcoin is on a tv show, but any price climb tonight will be speculation and not new people jumping on board. It will take days for the 0.5% of the audience that discovers it is real to get their money on an exchange.
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January 15, 2012, 06:48:48 PM
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Once the price trends turn around, or even only the trend is not so convincing, the price will crash. I think the price now is at a very vulnerable point. What if after audience of the Good Wife show don't buy in bitcoin? then all the traders confidence will be broken.


Anyone basing their confidence upon a generic legal drama that happens to have a bitcoin episode is making really poor decisions. Most audience members will have zero reason to think bitcoin is anything more then a fictional idea made up for a fictional show. I'm not getting excited and expecting this to raise the price at all. Sure is fun that bitcoin is on a tv show, but any price climb tonight will be speculation and not new people jumping on board. It will take days for the 0.5% of the audience that discovers it is real to get their money on an exchange.

What about people that have already heard of bitcoin ? This is an instance of mindshare, you hear something enough that sounds intriguing, you eventually reach a point where you have to know more. 

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January 15, 2012, 06:53:48 PM
 #16


Once the price trends turn around, or even only the trend is not so convincing, the price will crash. I think the price now is at a very vulnerable point. What if after audience of the Good Wife show don't buy in bitcoin? then all the traders confidence will be broken.


Anyone basing their confidence upon a generic legal drama that happens to have a bitcoin episode is making really poor decisions. Most audience members will have zero reason to think bitcoin is anything more then a fictional idea made up for a fictional show. I'm not getting excited and expecting this to raise the price at all. Sure is fun that bitcoin is on a tv show, but any price climb tonight will be speculation and not new people jumping on board. It will take days for the 0.5% of the audience that discovers it is real to get their money on an exchange.

+1

(BFL)^2 < 0
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January 15, 2012, 07:05:26 PM
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What about people that have already heard of bitcoin ? This is an instance of mindshare, you hear something enough that sounds intriguing, you eventually reach a point where you have to know more. 

Yes, in the case of those people I would agree that they may be compelled to google it. But it is not unreasonable to say that even fewer of those would actually make the jump to getting money on the exchanges. And that money would take a couple days to get into the system. I hope the show can help in whatever way it can, but I'm not expecting price climbs based on it. =)
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January 16, 2012, 09:54:39 AM
 #18

Now we know that the Good Wife show is only interesting for the bitcoiners. For average people, it's boring and hard to understand.

It's interesting to watch whether the confidence(short term) of the traders is going to collapse or hold on.

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January 16, 2012, 10:53:59 AM
 #19

I don't know whether it will have an effect or not; but I would say this:

13 million is a really big number.

There are usually about 500 watchers on Mt.Gox live.  Let's say that the total active Bitcoin traders are ten times that (I'm just guessing).  5000/13000000 is 0.04%.

Conclusion: if 0.04% of the people watching The Good Wife are interested enough to buy some bitcoins, the active traders could double.

As I say; I'm only guessing.

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January 16, 2012, 10:57:38 AM
 #20

I don't know whether it will have an effect or not; but I would say this:

13 million is a really big number.

There are usually about 500 watchers on Mt.Gox live.  Let's say that the total active Bitcoin traders are ten times that (I'm just guessing).  5000/13000000 is 0.04%.

Conclusion: if 0.04% of the people watching The Good Wife are interested enough to buy some bitcoins, the active traders could double.

As I say; I'm only guessing.

I'm guessing viewership was closer to 10 million... they've lost viewers to the NFL championship games last week and probably this week.  We should know when the numbers are published Tuesday.  Who knows, maybe forum users picked up the slack.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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