BTC drop to next level coming...bail the F out now!

[mikerbiker6]

@thexit, that is a nice theory.
But one would have to have a huge amount of coins to make the price plummet this low.

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[thExit]

@thexit, that is a nice theory.
But one would have to have a huge amount of coins to make the price plummet this low.

Yes, it is only a theory, and a quite doubtful one, as the amount of 30k BTC is relatively small compared to the overall market capital. My reasoning goes somewhat along the lines of reasoning/methods used by large hedge funds and banks that influence currency prices by sending a large number of orders to drive a currency pair in a certain direction. Sometimes central banks intervene when their currency is too strong/too weak compared to other currencies, and they have the ability to move the price, but it is often short-lived and influences the price for a day or so, despite the fact that huge capital is involved in such operations.

[Heider]

Checking the amount thExit; it's quite shocking if you ask me

I am 80% sure that it would end up with either btcchina or huobi. I am bracing myself for a series of shock-and-Orr waves like we've seen earlier when the Chinese government announced the banning of BTC from their banks, but then they managed to find a loophole to introduce even stronger buying schemes that disrupted the balances for a while.

At the moment, reading the link you sent (thank very much for that); it seems that these BTCs are actually on files at the moment (not held on traders account for release), which should (if my theory is correct) only cause a vacuum (price might slightly go down and then pick up shortly afterwards in the mean time), that should not affect the market-core much once the news is history.

We're seeing an unstable drop of around $100 over the past 4 days because of this news, but wouldn't be surprised if the price would pick up just before the auction.

Checking the market/stats today; although the lines have crossed on the 12th of June and comparing with an older / similar drop, the BTC technically now should be at $458 at the moment, which shows that the market is a lot stronger now than what it was on the 21st of May.

That said; I stick to what I said earlier about in 3 months time BTC should pick up etc, but;

My real worry now is what on earth is going to happen within a month of after the auction ends?...

Best thing for me now is to ... Go away, Eat some Hummus,... and then come back, it will always change...

Kind Regards
Heider

[thExit]

Speculating on future outcomes is tempting, and speculating on this particular BTC-related event is interesting as it may manifest how market participants view BTC and its environment, and how mature they are in their perception of the BTC market. This is the only thing that interests me, I do not think you can predict how the market will react to the actual event on the 27th and 28th of June- for the past two years I've been in front of my computer for almost every major Forex-related news release significant to EUR, USD, GBP or JPY (it's easy to follow through numerous services like http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php?day=jun16.2014), and I've seen soooo...ooo many different reactions to news/data, by saying different I mean reactions contrary to expectations/common sense, e.g. in cases where the data was good for a given currency, the market would first go up and then reject the data as if it was never published, reactions that were irrational. Thus even if the BTC-related event plays out as expected, or even though some information surfaces, the market (and it's participants) may decide to do the opposite.

Long-term predictions? Not for me. I prefer short-term trading, as in the case of this account on BTCe:

http://s29.postimg.org/8e26fk393/Detailed_Statement_15.gif

This is only a demo account with leverage 1:3 where I am testing my Forex methods, but I am quite happy with the results as they are similar to my live Forex results - this is a period of trading starting on the 16th of April 2014, initial deposit of 10.000,00 USD and a gain of 1172,99 USD, trading exclusively on BTCUSD pair. BTCe now allows accounts denominated in Bitcoin, Litecoin and Namecoin and trading on standard Forex majors like EURUSD, GBPUSD, JPY crosses, which makes me even more happy:) With those results, there is nothing to boast about, my only point is to show you that making a number of quick trades (exactly 519 trades in almost two months) allows you to take control of the profits instead of counting/hoping/speculating on what the market will do in a time of a month, two months or a year.

To add one more potential scenario, on reddit I've found an interesting comment by IkmoIkmo:

"And people don't realize that if you buy 30k coins on an exchange, the price increases, so you pay above spot-price average per bitcoin. As such, funds like BIT or Panterra are going to love paying simply the current exchange price for the bitcoin because that would be a huge discount for them compared to sourcing it from an exchange. So contrary to popular belief, these coins aren't going to be auctioned off for cheap!"

[source: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/280atj/calm_down_with_the_panic_selling_so_what_if_the/]

Having this in mind, if such a scenario occurs, the market will basically have no reason to react at all, as there will be no inflow or outflow of BTC as I've speculated earlier. After giving this a thought, this scenario sounds like the most probable, and the USMS would go for the highest bidder, so I wouldn't be surprised if such funds as those mentioned by IkmoIkmo would decide to pay a price a bit higher than the market price on the 27th.

[favelle75]

What's funny to me about this thread is that even after our huge drop recently.....we are STILL over $100 higher than when this thread was made. LOL. As if 25% PLUS returns were suggesting we "bail the F out".  ROFL.

[DustyRah]

What's funny to me about this thread is that even after our huge drop recently.....we are STILL over $100 higher than when this thread was made. LOL. As if 25% PLUS returns were suggesting we "bail the F out".  ROFL.

Do you think the original post was meant to apply forever? Use your common sense, the post was made based on information available at that time. This post is for current indicators and meant for traders and not long terms hodlers.

[Heider]

... We're Crossing back into recovery mode as of 1am this morning (UK Time)...

It's on its way up...

[R4v37]

What's funny to me about this thread is that even after our huge drop recently.....we are STILL over $100 higher than when this thread was made. LOL. As if 25% PLUS returns were suggesting we "bail the F out".  ROFL.

Do you think the original post was meant to apply forever? Use your common sense, the post was made based on information available at that time. This post is for current indicators and meant for traders and not long terms hodlers.

ow cmon...
the most important is still "BTC price" still stable at 500-600
hope that it'll be 800 at the end of year, so i'll throw a big party in the new year night 

[thExit]

What's funny to me about this thread is that even after our huge drop recently.....we are STILL over $100 higher than when this thread was made. LOL. As if 25% PLUS returns were suggesting we "bail the F out".  ROFL.

It's a good sign that we are still higher and if you were looking for long-term predictions/advice (disclaimer: I am not providing any advice:) then you should consider buying on every major dip. If everyone was doing so, the price of BTC would continue to rise. Market price is nothing else than the manifestation of traders' beliefs and their sentiment, if the sellers are in the minority and optimistic buying prevail, then we would see a continuous uptrend with corrections that enable more buyers to join in at a better price. Make sure you understand trends and corrections- corrections are a sign of a healthy trend, those are points in time and price where buyers liquidate their long positions in order cash in the profit, and latecomers have an opportunity to buy at a lower, more attractive price and by doing so they contribute to a further price rise and a continuation of the uptrend. Simply put, buy buy buy and do not bail the F out! LOL

[Heider]

Well, it depends on how you interpret "Bail the F. Out"

The way I understand it is; (A) Be aware, a big drop is coming, which implies "sell now if possible", and then wait for the big drop to occur and then it's up to you to buy again. Or;

From what I'm reading, others might be understanding it as (B) "Sell now, leave BTC forever", which I am sure isn't the intended message.

For (A) above, I don't know if anyone can argue if this didn't occur at the time of writing. Some even speculated a price of sub-$200, wasn't sure about that one though.

Repeating myself again, "you are cleaver enough to know what's right and wrong, please use common sense"

Anyway, I think the information was good at the time, I don't know how useful it is today to argue about a piece of information sent more than a month ago given the significant amount of BTC changes we all witnessed since then.

What do you think?

Regards
Heider

[micky123]

I for one believe that the recent steep drop was due to the news that the US marshal service is auctioning off close to 30 K BTC. Chinese news does not seem to affect BTC anymore, as people have smartened up and can see that this is a ploy by the Chinese to buy in at lower prices. More a reaction to the auction news as some whales may be trying to crash the price so that they can buy into the auction at lower rates especially since the auction notice states "Market price" and does not state any particular value per BTC.

Just my 2 satoshi!

And oh yeah, bailing out now may not be the smartest thing to do. Post June 30th once the auction results are announced, we should see BTC rising up again and maybe to greater heights than before. Being an optimist

[mikerbiker6]

Yep, I agree with you micky.

[thExit]

Anyway, I think the information was good at the time, I don't know how useful it is today to argue about a piece of information sent more than a month ago given the significant amount of BTC changes we all witnessed since then.

What do you think?

Regards
Heider

In most cases, in the financial markets information published yesterday becomes useless today:) There are some exceptions, for example data concerning interest rates tied to particular currency by it's central bank- those rates when shifted can create trends that continue for several days/weeks/months. In the cryptocurrency markets there are no interest rates as those in the fiat currency financial sector, so to further elaborate is pointless:)

@Heider, you are very kind to use such gentle words where other people would use invectives:)

[Heider]

Anyway, I think the information was good at the time, I don't know how useful it is today to argue about a piece of information sent more than a month ago given the significant amount of BTC changes we all witnessed since then.

What do you think?

Regards
Heider

In most cases, in the financial markets information published yesterday becomes useless today:) There are some exceptions, for example data concerning interest rates tied to particular currency by it's central bank- those rates when shifted can create trends that continue for several days/weeks/months. In the cryptocurrency markets there are no interest rates as those in the fiat currency financial sector, so to further elaborate is pointless:)

@Heider, you are very kind to use such gentle words where other people would use invectives:)

Thank you VERY much Sir.

Your kind'er words makes my day.



Have a good one

Cheers
Heider

[Heider]

By the way,

I noticed since morning that someone (or group of people) placing in orders of 200 BTC at a time every time it tries to go down. I saw this on $590, $600, $603, I don't know what's going on, but it seems that someone wants to stop it from going down now, and then pushing it right up with a similar sale on the uptrend.

Currently there are $110 left to be sold at $590.00 at the moment (i.e. $90 chewed out of the $200), which tells me that BTC is desperate to go down.

I don't want to advice anyone at the moment about what to do, but the above should be self explanatory if it stays that way for a while.

Kind Regards
Heider

[wachtwoord]

Things are never desperate to do anything.

[favelle75]

Do you think the original post was meant to apply forever? Use your common sense,

If it wasn't applied to "forever", then why the F would I bail out?  Bailing out means the ship is sinking, get out before you you do down with it. If the price drop was just temporary, then why the fck are we worried in the first place?

[thExit]

Thank you VERY much Sir.

Your kind'er words makes my day.



Have a good one

Cheers
Heider

Thank you as well, it's worth contributing if we can help even one person to benefit.

Do you think the original post was meant to apply forever? Use your common sense,

If it wasn't applied to "forever", then why the F would I bail out?  Bailing out means the ship is sinking, get out before you you do down with it. If the price drop was just temporary, then why the fck are we worried in the first place?

It's a good point, I don't think BTC is a concept that would collapse, there are numerous reasons for optimism. One reason that particularly convinces me is the fact that Bitcoin protocol can be further modified, that if the community/core devs agree on a feature, it can be incorporated with the existing protocol. Here's a quick read:

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-developer-jeff-garzik-on-altcoins-asics-and-bitcoin-usability/

"On altcoins"

and

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-developer-jeff-garzik-on-satoshi-nakamoto-and-the-future-of-bitcoin/

"A conservative team"

[DustyRah]

Do you think the original post was meant to apply forever? Use your common sense,

If it wasn't applied to "forever", then why the F would I bail out?  Bailing out means the ship is sinking, get out before you you do down with it. If the price drop was just temporary, then why the fck are we worried in the first place?

I am and have always been positive on long term prospects of BTC. However, I am a trader and my words may have been confusing to long term traders who would have seen it as leaving BTC altogether.

I don't think its worth sitting and waiting for BTC to head higher because traders are in the game now and traders enjoy waves and take their slices at they come along. Its worth taking profits as they come though there is always a risk of missing the train if and when it takes off the station. There are always more entry points to come along but taking the exit points is what books in the profits. Hopefully this FBI saga will be over soon and we are back on track climbing over the $1000 wall.

[favelle75]

Do you think the original post was meant to apply forever? Use your common sense,

If it wasn't applied to "forever", then why the F would I bail out?  Bailing out means the ship is sinking, get out before you you do down with it. If the price drop was just temporary, then why the fck are we worried in the first place?

I am and have always been positive on long term prospects of BTC. However, I am a trader and my words may have been confusing to long term traders who would have seen it as leaving BTC altogether.

Understatement. Imagine if someone said that about a stock like Apple or Google? It would sound like the company is going bankrupt!