BTC drop to next level coming...bail the F out now!

[Heider]

OK,...

A said "Green", B thought "Blue",

... regardless of what the actual colour is, how about calling it the technical term; "a Misunderstanding" and move on?

Anywayz,... Back to the subject, I think BTC had a very bad day today, I've never seen the lines mangled this way since the 23rd of May (BTC price then was $529), as opposed to yesterday there have been many up-blocks (many drops of 70 BTC each) placed just below $600 ($598, $599, $596) all day, this is preventing the price from going up to $600. It's now clear that a nasty group clearly doing all this on a purpose.

This is causing people to lose interest in buying or selling today (I'm one of them), which is why there's hardly any movement at the moment.

A less-similar state was on the 13th of June (4 days ago), where BTC was around $570.

I don't know after saying this here, if things would change exactly the opposite way, I might go crazy and start selling half load soon.

Regards
Heider

[1715383698]

1715383698

[scribbles]

[JimboToronto]

This is causing people to lose interest in buying or selling today (I'm one of them), which is why there's hardly any movement at the moment....
 
I don't know after saying this here, if things would change exactly the opposite way, I might go crazy and start selling half load soon.

Do you feel a compulsion to buy or sell? Are buying and selling the important things to you?

Whether you're into Bitcoin to support disruptive technology and open-source decentralized secure peer-to-peer networking, or merely to try to make money, holding is a lot more productive in the long run and a lot less stressful.

If you fancy yourself a trader, by all means have fun.

[Heider]

This is causing people to lose interest in buying or selling today (I'm one of them), which is why there's hardly any movement at the moment....
 
I don't know after saying this here, if things would change exactly the opposite way, I might go crazy and start selling half load soon.

Do you feel a compulsion to buy or sell? Are buying and selling the important things to you?

Whether you're into Bitcoin to support disruptive technology and open-source decentralized secure peer-to-peer networking, or merely to try to make money, holding is a lot more productive in the long run and a lot less stressful.

If you fancy yourself a trader, by all means have fun.

Kind'a of both to be honest, in a nut-shell, here's my strategy:

A) Buy when it's going up to sell higher.
B) Sell when it's about to go low, to buy lower.
C) Hold when 100% sure that its only going up...
D) Sell half-load when not sure if it's going up or down, then make-up the difference with the held amount.

Let me know if you think any of the above is wrong, any suggestions to improve are always welcome.

So far, I'm doing fine, I did lose initially when I first walked into the BTC world, but now the sky is raining Kabbab...

I hope this answers your question.

Kind Regards
Heider

[wachtwoord]

This is causing people to lose interest in buying or selling today (I'm one of them), which is why there's hardly any movement at the moment....
 
I don't know after saying this here, if things would change exactly the opposite way, I might go crazy and start selling half load soon.

Do you feel a compulsion to buy or sell? Are buying and selling the important things to you?

Whether you're into Bitcoin to support disruptive technology and open-source decentralized secure peer-to-peer networking, or merely to try to make money, holding is a lot more productive in the long run and a lot less stressful.

If you fancy yourself a trader, by all means have fun.

Kind'a of both to be honest, in a nut-shell, here's my strategy:

A) Buy when it's going up to sell higher.
B) Sell when it's about to go low, to buy lower.
C) Hold when 100% sure that its only going up...
D) Sell half-load when not sure if it's going up or down, then make-up the difference with the held amount.

Let me know if you think any of the above is wrong, any suggestions to improve are always welcome.

So far, I'm doing fine, I did lose initially when I first walked into the BTC world, but now the sky is raining Kabbab...

I hope this answers your question.

Kind Regards
Heider

Don't make decisions based on where it is going.

1. Buy.
2. Hold.
3. Sell a small percentage after it moved up a certain amount (e.g. 100%)
4. Rinse and repeat

[Heider]

Don't make decisions based on where it is going.

1. Buy.
2. Hold.
3. Sell a small percentage after it moved up a certain amount (e.g. 100%)
4. Rinse and repeat

That's exactly what I tried when I first walked into the BTC world about 4 months ago. I bought at $634, but then with MtGox going down and China banks rumours stopping BTC on the way as well etc, it went down to $379 (i.e. almost half if I remember correctly), being a novice in BTC at the time I sold then thinking it's going down further and probably staying there trying to recover my loss by aiming to buy at a lower price, the minute I sold, BTC rocketed up quite fast before I even knew it, I ended up cursing and banging my head to the wall as a result.

The strategy I am following now (mentioned in an earlier reply) worked out very well, thank God there was the second down-turn about a month ago, I remember selling already just about when it started to go down, but then not knowing why it was going down or when it was supposed to stop, I stumbled on this forum and found it extremely useful, it gave me ideas about how to understand (lines have crossed already), consider volumes, check  ask/bid prices on the way etc, all that now helped me so much to "try" and become a better BTC trader.

Thank you for sharing your strategy wachtwoord (really appreciate it), I will stick with mine for now until BTC is more stable, then would certainly do yours on the long run. Well, probably a month after the auction becomes history.

Kind Regards
Heider
 

[wachtwoord]

Don't make decisions based on where it is going.

1. Buy.
2. Hold.
3. Sell a small percentage after it moved up a certain amount (e.g. 100%)
4. Rinse and repeat

That's exactly what I tried when I first walked into the BTC world about 4 months ago. I bought at $634, but then with MtGox going down and China banks rumours stopping BTC on the way as well etc, it went down to $379 (i.e. almost half if I remember correctly), being a novice in BTC at the time I sold then thinking it's going down further and probably staying there trying to recover my loss by aiming to buy at a lower price, the minute I sold, BTC rocketed up quite fast before I even knew it, I ended up cursing and banging my head to the wall as a result.

The strategy I am following now (mentioned in an earlier reply) worked out very well, thank God there was the second down-turn about a month ago, I remember selling already just about when it started to go down, but then not knowing why it was going down or when it was supposed to stop, I stumbled on this forum and found it extremely useful, it gave me ideas about how to understand (lines have crossed already), consider volumes, check  ask/bid prices on the way etc, all that now helped me so much to "try" and become a better BTC trader.

Thank you for sharing your strategy wachtwoord (really appreciate it), I will stick with mine for now until BTC is more stable, then would certainly do yours on the long run. Well, probably a month after the auction becomes history.

Kind Regards
Heider
 

I hope you don't lose too much before you switch to the above (I'm not being sarcastic, I sincerely hope this, but would not recommend it)

[Oddball1221]

It just dropped from 605 to 595. 420 Bail it out.

http://static.fjcdn.com/gifs/It+s+HAPPENING.+100+shure+from+pol_47a934_4838945.gif

</sarcasm>

[BTCfan1]

it's gonna stay around 600 until the 27th, then who knows?

[DustyRah]

Its a nice deal if it can hang on to the 6xx area for a while. Stability of price always helps support a positive long term outlook...

[Heider]

... I reckon $557 soon.

[Zohann]

I'm looking for it to find support on the 7 week moving average and then take another stab at breaking the 30 week moving average.

[jayc89]

I've got around $7500 ready to pump in, just awaiting the "opportune moment"

[mikerbiker6]

nice 1 oddball.

[DustyRah]

I've got around $7500 ready to pump in, just awaiting the "opportune moment"

Not right now...wait a bit! Do it as soon as you see positive divergence...

[Heider]

I've got around $7500 ready to pump in, just awaiting the "opportune moment"

Not right now...wait a bit! Do it as soon as you see positive divergence...

If the price is being pushed down intentionally to get the large BTCs ceased by the FBI at a lower price, then I think it's probably best to consider buying when closer to the auction date (i.e. 28th of June). I think a month after that date, the BTC would rocket up somehow.

Regards
Heider

[JimboToronto]

I've got around $7500 ready to pump in, just awaiting the "opportune moment"

If the price is being pushed down intentionally to get the large BTCs ceased by the FBI at a lower price, then I think it's probably best to consider buying when closer to the auction date (i.e. 28th of June). I think a month after that date, the BTC would rocket up somehow.

I know you meant seized, but it still doesn't make sense.

The auction price won't be based on some silly little exchange price. It will probably be somewhat higher than exchange prices since it offers the opportunity for a venture capitalist, bank, or serious investor (typical bidder according to leaks) to buy a lot of coins at a relatively low price, without raising the price part way through the transaction.

A good strategy would be to win one or more of the auctions and then buy a couple of thousand coins at market price to greatly increase the value of the coins bought at auction.

It's not rocket surgery.

[Heider]

I know you meant seized, but it still doesn't make sense.

The auction price won't be based on some silly little exchange price. It will probably be somewhat higher than exchange prices since it offers the opportunity for a venture capitalist, bank, or serious investor (typical bidder according to leaks) to buy a lot of coins at a relatively low price, without raising the price part way through the transaction.

A good strategy would be to win one or more of the auctions and then buy a couple of thousand coins at market price to greatly increase the value of the coins bought at auction.

It's not rocket surgery.

Hi Jimbo,

Yes, I meant seized, my spell-checker can be a devil sometimes.

In regards to the auction, I tend to disagree with you, I've been through auctions in the past, and (in a general auction) when someone sells something, it would be based on "today's" market price, Since the auction have not officially started yet, then today's price isn't known yet, and that it to be calculated at the beginning of the auction's date. Therefore, I still strongly believe that the price will be pushed down sooner or later by someone knowing what they're doing.

When we talk about a 1000 BTC, that's more than half a million dollars in today's price, if I had that sort of money at the moment, I would guarantee to "somehow" control (or have a little saying) in moving the price North or South. For someone having the power to buy 3000 BTCs; I would certainly expect the market to shake before and after that auction.

Therefore, even thought I might be wrong on this, but I would rather stick to my theory for now, as this is what I am already seeing on the BTC movement at the moment.

Kind Regards
Heider
 

[JimboToronto]

I know you meant seized, but it still doesn't make sense.

The auction price won't be based on some silly little exchange price. It will probably be somewhat higher than exchange prices since it offers the opportunity for a venture capitalist, bank, or serious investor (typical bidder according to leaks) to buy a lot of coins at a relatively low price, without raising the price part way through the transaction.

A good strategy would be to win one or more of the auctions and then buy a couple of thousand coins at market price to greatly increase the value of the coins bought at auction.

It's not rocket surgery.

I've been through auctions in the past, and (in a general auction) when someone sells something, it would be based on "today's" market price, Since the auction have not officially started yet, then today's price isn't known yet, and that it to be calculated at the beginning of the auction's date. Therefore, I still strongly believe that the price will be pushed down sooner or later by someone knowing what they're doing.

When we talk about a 1000 BTC, that's more than half a million dollars in today's price, if I had that sort of money at the moment, I would guarantee to "somehow" control (or have a little saying) in moving the price North or South. For someone having the power to buy 3000 BTCs; I would certainly expect the market to shake before and after that auction.
Heider
 

This is why the market is kind of flat at the moment. Many people are waiting to see how this pans out.

Opinions differ. I hear and hopefully understand your argument, but I still think that those with sufficient resources to participate ($200,000.00 may not seem like much but it excludes many) will have the foresight to see the opportunity  to immediately increase the value of their new coins at little additional cost.

According to the leaked list of bidders, these aren't a bunch of petty daytraders, but rather those with a longer-term agenda.

Cheers.  

[thExit]

To add one more potential scenario, on reddit I've found an interesting comment by IkmoIkmo:

"And people don't realize that if you buy 30k coins on an exchange, the price increases, so you pay above spot-price average per bitcoin. As such, funds like BIT or Panterra are going to love paying simply the current exchange price for the bitcoin because that would be a huge discount for them compared to sourcing it from an exchange. So contrary to popular belief, these coins aren't going to be auctioned off for cheap!"

[source: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/280atj/calm_down_with_the_panic_selling_so_what_if_the/]

Having this in mind, if such a scenario occurs, the market will basically have no reason to react at all, as there will be no inflow or outflow of BTC as I've speculated earlier. After giving this a thought, this scenario sounds like the most probable, and the USMS would go for the highest bidder, so I wouldn't be surprised if such funds as those mentioned by IkmoIkmo would decide to pay a price a bit higher than the market price on the 27th.

Here is an interesting bit that supports IkmoIkmo's comment:

"Bitcoin’s institutional investors have recently noted that current exchange trading solutions are not optimised for high net-worth clients.

For example, Binary Financial’s Managing Partner Harry Yeh recently told CoinDesk that the upcoming US Marshals Service (USMS) auction of nearly 30,000 bitcoins confiscated from Silk Road has become appealing to his firm’s clients for providing a viable solution to real investor concerns.

Yeh explained how large buyers often pay an above-market price for large bitcoin orders, as the act of buying such a large volume of coins causes price slippage, whereby investors force the price of bitcoin to rise as their orders are being filled"

[source:http://www.coindesk.com/okcoin-encourages-large-scale-investment-with-algorithmic-trading-launch/ ]