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Author Topic: It's looking a bit bearish right now  (Read 3824 times)
ineededausername
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January 15, 2012, 05:18:52 PM
 #1





We will be moving out of this perpetual $6.25-7.22 range soon enough.  MACD is crossing down and there's an obvious head & shoulders pattern.  The long-term support is getting close to the $7-7.2 resistance, and bearish signals are starting to show up, so it looks like it's more likely for the long-term support to break.

My opinion is that the TV show won't do too much, and if it causes new money to come in at all, it won't come instantly.  Look out for a reasonably large correction before the rally continues.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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yogi
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January 15, 2012, 05:22:53 PM
 #2

Well you've called it a few times, but I think your wrong about this one.

Next move is UP, correction is over.

ineededausername
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January 15, 2012, 05:27:53 PM
 #3

I think if you short right now, put a stop at 7.2 and go long at 7.3, you can't possibly lose.  Smiley

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January 15, 2012, 06:15:14 PM
 #4

We just failed to hit new lows in this wave so the crash is cancelled. Continue on with the current price range.

This is similar behavior we had around 4 on our way up to 7. There is always the possibility we are about to launch to $11.
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January 15, 2012, 06:21:56 PM
 #5

I think this analysis is flawed. The crash stopped at $6.2 and now the bulls have reinforced their positions to the point where the asks look puny in comparison. We will at least test higher levels before another drop is a possibility. Currently the buyers are simply waiting for the sign, when it comes we will test at least $7.2.

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January 15, 2012, 06:23:18 PM
 #6

I think this analysis is flawed. The crash stopped at $6.2 and now the bulls have reinforced their positions to the point where the asks look puny in comparison. We will at least test higher levels before another drop is a possibility. Currently the buyers are simply waiting for the sign, when it comes we will test at least $7.2.

Nail head, meet hammer...

Exactly

+1

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January 15, 2012, 06:29:05 PM
 #7

The trend line is NOT broken, you drawing lines that support your theory.

Look at the month, and take the bottoms, and connect the dots, the price will soon bounce off the trend line upwards..

but in my eyes we wont truly hit the trend line for roughly a week if we continue going sideways..

If it goes down in the short term(20-50 cents), it will touch trend line and start our little rally upwards..

reading OP again, maybe I misunderstood.. Tongue  but my point remains..

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BrightAnarchist
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January 15, 2012, 06:30:34 PM
 #8

I agree with the OP

Bitcoin trades like a penny stock, moving with speculative fever in the broader market.

If stocks crash, I would expect Bitcoin to fall as well, at least temporarily.

That said, I'm bullish long term so I would see any move down as a great buying opportunity.
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January 15, 2012, 06:35:27 PM
 #9

I have a buy order for 9BTC at 6.27 if we head that low but it is looking less and less likely. I am sure I am like many other people who sold some coins in that I plan to buy more if they go down. This adds support and the longer we stay above $6 the firmer the support will become. I would welcome a temporary drop just for buying just like so many here.
ineededausername
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January 15, 2012, 06:57:51 PM
 #10

We just failed to hit new lows in this wave so the crash is cancelled. Continue on with the current price range.

This is similar behavior we had around 4 on our way up to 7. There is always the possibility we are about to launch to $11.

We didn't have similar behavior at $4.  The technicals weren't as weak back then as now, and the bullish wedge was much more visible.  
$7.2->$9 is entirely possible, but right now I'm slightly bearish.  Both bears and bulls are waiting for confirmation at this point.

I think this analysis is flawed. The crash stopped at $6.2 and now the bulls have reinforced their positions to the point where the asks look puny in comparison. We will at least test higher levels before another drop is a possibility. Currently the buyers are simply waiting for the sign, when it comes we will test at least $7.2.

I agree that we could easily go either way... it only takes one more spike to invalidate my hypothesis.  It also takes one profit taker to confirm my hypothesis.

Right now, I'll stay cautiously bearish until further confirmation.  I am taking no position on Bitcoinica and I do not recommend shorting with leverage.

edit: Just noticed another head and shoulders... except bullish.  Current situation is damn confusing.

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ineededausername
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January 15, 2012, 07:06:30 PM
 #11

Shit, shit! Bidwalls going up!

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teflone
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January 15, 2012, 07:08:00 PM
 #12

Yeee haaaaa!


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January 15, 2012, 07:09:44 PM
 #13

I don't see it.  There are a lot of bids, to be sure ($1.24 million worth right now), but I don't see any giant bid walls going up.
ineededausername
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January 15, 2012, 07:10:35 PM
 #14

I don't see it.  There are a lot of bids, to be sure ($1.24 million worth right now), but I don't see any giant bid walls going up.

I see 15k BTC of new bids in the mid $6 range.

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January 15, 2012, 07:11:55 PM
 #15

I don't see it.  There are a lot of bids, to be sure ($1.24 million worth right now), but I don't see any giant bid walls going up.

I see 15k BTC of new bids in the mid $6 range.

Oh, yep.  $1.26 million in bids now.
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January 15, 2012, 07:19:34 PM
 #16

Ever watch actual mud/land slides video?

Its like a slow moving one watching mtgox live..

The bid/ground is being saturated with rain, and about to let loose on the bottom.. Smiley

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zby
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January 15, 2012, 07:46:46 PM
 #17

I think this analysis is flawed. The crash stopped at $6.2 and now the bulls have reinforced their positions to the point where the asks look puny in comparison. We will at least test higher levels before another drop is a possibility. Currently the buyers are simply waiting for the sign, when it comes we will test at least $7.2.

You have been posting similar opinions all the way down since August to November, you started to be a bit more cautious just when it was about to bounce back from the bottom at 2.
SkRRJyTC
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January 15, 2012, 07:54:18 PM
 #18

Only 22k bearish BTC left below $7.20...

Edit 20k
SkRRJyTC
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January 15, 2012, 08:20:08 PM
 #19

Only 22k bearish BTC left below $7.20...

Edit 20k

Do you really think that's for realz?

Is this the real life or is this just fantasy?
proudhon
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January 15, 2012, 08:22:15 PM
 #20

Only 22k bearish BTC left below $7.20...

Edit 20k

Do you really think that's for realz?

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