Bubble 2014? Superbubble 2015? No bubbles anymore?

[frienemy]

Which bubble are we going to have? What do you guys think?

[piramida]

there definitely will be a valuation bubble in 2014, because it can't go down much and it can't go sideways forever with all the new attention. any push to the upside would reignite the rally. either that, or bitcoin dies completely. pick whatever your intelligence allows you to pick.

[chessnut]

well they have all been pretty super bubbles, if you look on the log scale.
The chart is showing strong signs of reversal lately. I think we will test highs before july. cant say we will break them, but I am quietly confident.

[frienemy]

there definitely will be a valuation bubble in 2014, because it can't go down much and it can't go sideways forever with all the new attention. any push to the upside would reignite the rally. either that, or bitcoin dies completely. pick whatever your intelligence allows you to pick.

I see a bubble in 2014 as the most probable option, too, but I wonder whether massive FUD attacks in the early stage of the bubble could choke off the rocket prematurely only to superskyrocket in 2015.

well they have all been pretty super bubbles, if you look on the log scale.
The chart is showing strong signs of reversal lately. I think we will test highs before july. cant say we will break them, but I am quietly confident.

By superbubble I mean a 2011-like bubble.

EDIT: We better use the technical terms "super bubble" and "super duper bubble" in the bitcoin world

[Mayuyu48]

we will see bubble in late 2014
like one year before in 2013

By superbubble I mean a 2011-like bubble.

EDIT: We better use the technical terms "super bubble" and "super duper bubble" in the bitcoin world

2011 bubble? how many percent increasing price of BTC?

[frienemy]

By superbubble I mean a 2011-like bubble.

EDIT: We better use the technical terms "super bubble" and "super duper bubble" in the bitcoin world

2011 bubble? how many percent increasing price of BTC?
[/quote]


I hijacked this image from rpietilas "Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend" thread. It was updated by minimalB. Thanks to both of them. The image nicely shows the extent of the 2011 bubble.

[devphp]

low 4-digit in 2014, like $2 000 or so, can't really be called a bubble.

5-digit in the second half of 2015, not high 5-digit number, but something on the order of $20 000-30 000.

[TERA]

There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin.  Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.

[piramida]

there definitely will be a valuation bubble in 2014, because it can't go down much and it can't go sideways forever with all the new attention. any push to the upside would reignite the rally. either that, or bitcoin dies completely. pick whatever your intelligence allows you to pick.

I see a bubble in 2014 as the most probable option, too, but I wonder whether massive FUD attacks in the early stage of the bubble could choke off the rocket prematurely only to superskyrocket in 2015.

well they have all been pretty super bubbles, if you look on the log scale.
The chart is showing strong signs of reversal lately. I think we will test highs before july. cant say we will break them, but I am quietly confident.

By superbubble I mean a 2011-like bubble.

EDIT: We better use the technical terms "super bubble" and "super duper bubble" in the bitcoin world

first bubble was actually about a 30x increase (from the consolidation levels of $1->31), while last year's run was a 5->250, a 50x increase, so that would qualify as the bigger bubble. The most recent one was weak, going only 12x from 100 to 1200, but it also had a very short consolidation period of several months only. I think this new one will possibly also have very short consolidation period and "low" fuel resulting in only 10-15x growth from the $400 base. But maybe it will be some completely new beast, thats the beauty of it - it runs differently every time, but never boring.

If you recall, the biggest runup from $5 to $250 was started with two large crashes on the way up, bigger one caused by piratefund I think, where the price lost 50% in one day but even that didn't stop the rally much, only postponed it by one month. When it runs, it ignores FUD.

[frienemy]

...But maybe it will be some completely new beast, thats the beauty of it...

It's definitively going to be a dinosaur! Dinosaur patterns are simply the best.

[piramida]

...But maybe it will be some completely new beast, thats the beauty of it...

It's definitively going to be a dinosaur! Dinosaur patterns are simply the best.

you know that all birds are direct descendants of dinosaurs? So yeah why not

[manicminer5]

Bubleeeeeeeeeeeees..... My bubles!

[gagalady]

I voted for the first option but I wouldn't call that a bubble.

[JimboToronto]

Bubbles, bubbles, so many bubbles.

[adamstgBit]

[podyx]

Next bubble is gonna feel so fucking unreal

Gonna feel nice to get the 7figgy

[JimboToronto]

[tuneman1980]

Take a look at: http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php

This shows the bubbles pretty well, and even better if you select LN pricing.  It looks like this correction might be turning around.

[bitcoinsrus]

Take a look at: http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php

This shows the bubbles pretty well, and even better if you select LN pricing.  It looks like this correction might be turning around.

Expected price is 666

[rudius]

There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin.  Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.

Sorry i don t understand your drawing. Looks to me like random bulls run and random bubles. I agree that the 2011 buble was unique until today, but the crash that follow was just in relation with the size of the buble.

You can clarify your view by defining "bulls run" ans "buble"

To me, it all looks like bulls run in adoption. The better the run, the better the crash.