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[myself]

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[zhoutong]

so how many BTC we got on long on bitcoinica counting the last days ?

It's safe to share our old figures. That's at least 7 days ago.

We had 110K long at peak (with 20K short), including ฿ holdings.

We don't do stats on "daily long vs short" because everything just keeps changing. We only calculate the totals.

[Vandroiy]

It's safe to share our old figures. That's at least 7 days ago.

We had 110K long at peak (with 20K short), including ฿ holdings.

We don't do stats on "daily long vs short" because everything just keeps changing. We only calculate the totals.

On the order of 100k BTC? What happens if someone dumps 100k BTC right now, remember that day in November? A large trader may possess six-digit BTC sums and try to abuse the overshoot, no?

Well, I don't really know the algorithms, but that's one reason why I'm not trading on Bitcoinica. I'm far too lazy to analyze a trading mechanism with such complicated mechanics. Let a strong trader find an exploit, and the whole thing goes kaboom.

[zhoutong]

It's safe to share our old figures. That's at least 7 days ago.

We had 110K long at peak (with 20K short), including ฿ holdings.

We don't do stats on "daily long vs short" because everything just keeps changing. We only calculate the totals.

On the order of 100k BTC? What happens if someone dumps 100k BTC right now, remember that day in November? A large trader may possess six-digit BTC sums and try to abuse the overshoot, no?

Well, I don't really know the algorithms, but that's one reason why I'm not trading on Bitcoinica. I'm far too lazy to analyze a trading mechanism with such complicated mechanics. Let a strong trader find an exploit, and the whole thing goes kaboom.

It's total positions. AFAIK, a lot of traders have their liquidating price below $4, or even $3, which is quite safe. The gain is much less than the loss.

If Bitcoinica's financial model is flawed, it would have been abused already. We have seen so many squeezes and none of them really affects Bitcoinica much.

[teflone]

Make another thread....  You havent made enough threads or posts yet

[Zotia]

It's total positions. AFAIK, a lot of traders have their liquidating price below $4, or even $3, which is quite safe. The gain is much less than the loss.

If Bitcoinica's financial model is flawed, it would have been abused already. We have seen so many squeezes and none of them really affects Bitcoinica much.

The advice you gave last time was completely opposite:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=55938.msg665536#msg665536


This time:
-Bitcoinica has been updated to allow people who are shorting to close their position (which means shorting is far less risky)
-the "no reserve" problem is likely to continue since so many people are trying to buy
-the "no reserve" problem has been going on for much longer (2 days instead of a few hours)



This situation is much worse this time and you have the opposite opinion.

Why?

[teflone]

It's total positions. AFAIK, a lot of traders have their liquidating price below $4, or even $3, which is quite safe. The gain is much less than the loss.

If Bitcoinica's financial model is flawed, it would have been abused already. We have seen so many squeezes and none of them really affects Bitcoinica much.

The advice you gave last time was completely opposite:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=55938.msg665536#msg665536


This time:
-Bitcoinica has been updated to allow people who are shorting to close their position (which means shorting is far less risky)
-the "no reserve" problem is likely to continue since so many people are trying to buy
-the "no reserve" problem has been going on for much longer (2 days instead of a few hours)



This situation is much worse this time and you have the opposite opinion.

Why?

His opinion is PURELY based on his position.. obviously short right now... lmao

SPAM SPAM SPAM is his game..

[notme]

The advice you gave last time was completely opposite:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=55938.msg665536#msg665536


This time:
-Bitcoinica has been updated to allow people who are shorting to close their position (which means shorting is far less risky)
-the "no reserve" problem is likely to continue since so many people are trying to buy
-the "no reserve" problem has been going on for much longer (2 days instead of a few hours)



This situation is much worse different this time and you have the opposite opinion.

Why?

FTFY

I still don't understand how people buying will drive the price down.  Maybe if they are overleveraged, but those people will be wiped out and won't be allowed to rebuy without throwing down more money.  The market will find a fair valuation.  Quit trying to manipulate it with scare tactics.

[Zotia]

I still don't understand how people buying will drive the price down.

It's not the buying that will drive the price down, but the lack of buying.
"No reserve" means that people on bitcoinica:
-already bought
-can't buy more

This means that the price can't really go up until people get more money from their bank accounts.

Quit trying to manipulate it with scare tactics.

I had a 10:1 long position then I got liquidated.  I couldn't understand why people were selling when the market looked so bullish.

I lost everything.  I wanted to figure out why it happened. I believe I did, so I wanted to share.

[notme]

I still don't understand how people buying will drive the price down.

It's not the buying that will drive the price down, but the lack of buying.
"No reserve" means that people on bitcoinica:
-already bought
-can't buy more

This means that the price can't really go up until people get more money from their bank accounts.

Or the 1.1 million dollars sitting on the bid side of the order book get tired of waiting for cheaper prices.

Sorry, I didn't mean to pull myself's arguments into this... I'm tired and I didn't look carefully and thought I was still talking to him.  He made the claim that people buying will drive the price down in one of his other threads.

Quit trying to manipulate it with scare tactics.

I had a 10:1 long position then I got liquidated.  I couldn't understand why people were selling when the market looked so bullish.

I lost everything.  I wanted to figure out why it happened. I believe I did, so I wanted to share.

People were selling because you and others were overleveraged and when this occurs it is public information.  That doesn't not translate into a cascade of liquidations unless there is no support, or you manage to pull off a panic.  We might see a couple of those before people figure out what's going on, so you might have an actionable strategy short term, but after a few times of washing out the excessively leveraged, people will learn to be more reasonable.