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Author Topic: Why bitcoin is currently (Jan 16th) crashing and why it may continue  (Read 5308 times)
notme
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January 17, 2012, 08:44:37 PM
 #61

Actually, numbers have been posted.  The bitcoin episode only had 9.3 million viewers... the Golden Globe awards and Packers vs. Giants pulled off a lot of normal viewers.  Still, if 5% are interested enough to join us, that is 465k people.  If we let those 465k people have all the bitcoins that currently exist, they can only have 17 each.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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notme
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January 17, 2012, 08:46:38 PM
 #62

About ~1600 extra downloads yesterday over normal.
http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/timeline

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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sgbett
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January 17, 2012, 11:21:44 PM
 #63

Consensus opinion so for still seems to be a lot of denial...

Quote
"this is bull..."
Quote
"I blame bitcoinica"
Quote
"could this be the last opportunity to buy bit coins at a great price"

I don't think this sell off marks panic, it was simply an unravelling of the leveraged longs. I think a bunch of them will have been washed out, and i think the rest will be hesitant about jumping straight back in.

Pessimism has yet to grip these boards, and only then will the true panic selloff begin and we can start to think about finding a bottom.

Some of my higher price orders in the 5.xx range have been filled (don't want to be totally committed to my plan and miss out an picking up a few coins in case we simply spike back up) so my long position is starting to creep up.

The bigger orders going down 4,3,2 range still stand, and the longer this goes on the more likely it seems they get filled.

I maintain my belief that we retest $2.20, any lower and I'll need more capital Wink

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Dutch Merganser
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January 18, 2012, 12:05:57 AM
 #64

Consensus opinion so for still seems to be a lot of denial...

Quote
"this is bull..."
Quote
"I blame bitcoinica"
Quote
"could this be the last opportunity to buy bit coins at a great price"

I don't think this sell off marks panic, it was simply an unravelling of the leveraged longs. I think a bunch of them will have been washed out, and i think the rest will be hesitant about jumping straight back in.

Pessimism has yet to grip these boards, and only then will the true panic selloff begin and we can start to think about finding a bottom.

+1

"Science flies you to the Moon, religion flies you into buildings."
 - Victor Stenger

"Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and the rulers as useful."
 - Seneca the Elder (ca. 54 BCE - ca. 39 CE) Roman rhetorician
phelix
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January 18, 2012, 09:06:28 AM
 #65

I wonder when the manipulator with his ~$250000 AND ~BTC50000 will start playing bitcoinica...  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59847.0)

he could directly hammer the price down to $5.85, would this not liquidate a lot of people on bitcoinica? He could then catch all these coins raining down.


I've actually thought about doing just this. Then I thought about the numerous failed attempts at driving the price down by some large holder in previous weeks.

Then again, 50k leveraged at 10:1 would certainly take us to the $4 range, liquidating anyone who went long >$5...

Also, he would be stupid putting $250,000 in bitcoinica. It would clear, everyone else would see the opportunity to cash out, and he would be stuck with the dreaded *BEOD (Bulls-eye of death).

why put it into bitcoinica? I meant that he could dump it right on the gox market.

This is why I thought you meant bitcoinica...
 Undecided

I imagine it would be hard to let it burst from within.

Anyway, now somebody really did it. I should have been prepared better...  Roll Eyes

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