Why bitcoin is currently (Jan 16th) crashing and why it may continue

[bittenbob]

Come on people! We need more doom and gloom threads for the price to go up!

The sky is falling! Bitcoins are falling! The world is over!

(now rise my Bitcoin!)

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[tickets]

As you probably know, the "Bitcoin for Dummies" episode was a huge success.  Many people are searching for bitcoin and many people are buying bitcoin.   Because of this, many people are trying to buy on Bitcoinica.  Too many people are trying to buy, so Bitcoinica ran out of reserve.

 I find this quote suspect and self-serving.. or very naive. what evidence are they presenting that people saw this tv episode and somehow discovered bitcoinia?   For one thing, the best known exchange is mtgox.. and there was not even a volume spike on mtgox, much less a price rise.   Also, it will take noobs about a week just to fund their mtgox accounts with dollars via dwolla. 

[phelix]

I wonder when the manipulator with his ~$250000 AND ~BTC50000 will start playing bitcoinica...  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59847.0)

he could directly hammer the price down to $5.85, would this not liquidate a lot of people on bitcoinica? He could then catch all these coins raining down.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I wonder when the manipulator with his ~$250000 AND ~BTC50000 will start playing bitcoinica...  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59847.0)

he could directly hammer the price down to $5.85, would this not liquidate a lot of people on bitcoinica? He could then catch all these coins raining down.

I've actually thought about doing just this. Then I thought about the numerous failed attempts at driving the price down by some large holder in previous weeks.

Then again, 50k leveraged at 10:1 would certainly take us to the $4 range, liquidating anyone who went long >$5...

Also, he would be stupid putting $250,000 in bitcoinica. It would clear, everyone else would see the opportunity to cash out, and he would be stuck with the dreaded *BEOD (Bulls-eye of death).

[Mark Oates]

As you probably know, the "Bitcoin for Dummies" episode was a huge success.  Many people are searching for bitcoin and many people are buying bitcoin.   Because of this, many people are trying to buy on Bitcoinica.  Too many people are trying to buy, so Bitcoinica ran out of reserve.

 I find this quote suspect and self-serving.. or very naive. what evidence are they presenting that people saw this tv episode and somehow discovered bitcoinia?   For one thing, the best known exchange is mtgox.. and there was not even a volume spike on mtgox, much less a price rise.   Also, it will take noobs about a week just to fund their mtgox accounts with dollars via dwolla.  

The benefit of the episode "Bitcoin for Dummies" was not instant gratification, nor a significant motivator to bring in any substantial influx of new adopters.  Instead it was something much more substantial, an aggressive reminder that persistently reiterated the word "Bitcoin" (some 40 times?) into the ears of the viewers, and even included a full-on tutorial video and positive framing.

The TV episode's exposure was to a high quality, prime time, main stream viewership (think, "other media types.")  And since it was in the episode's title, it also systemically planted the word "Bitcoin" directly into the headlines of many newspaper and TV review blogs, including the New York Times and Huffington Post.  For a brief period, the word "bitcoin" graced the front page of the NYT and, for many people, may have been the first time that word "Bitcoin" came back again after the last press push pre June 2011.  And as far as the episode goes, that word didn't come passively.  To me, the exposure equated to "It didn't die; it's still here" and for the first time it was acknowledged as "hip" and "cool" by Hollywood.

As I said in another thread, it was a solid advertising 2.0 push.  A company couldn't have bought better product placement.

[Zotia]

As you probably know, the "Bitcoin for Dummies" episode was a huge success.  Many people are searching for bitcoin and many people are buying bitcoin.   Because of this, many people are trying to buy on Bitcoinica.  Too many people are trying to buy, so Bitcoinica ran out of reserve.

 I find this quote suspect and self-serving.. or very naive. what evidence are they presenting that people saw this tv episode and somehow discovered bitcoinia?   For one thing, the best known exchange is mtgox.. and there was not even a volume spike on mtgox, much less a price rise.   Also, it will take noobs about a week just to fund their mtgox accounts with dollars via dwolla. 

Sorry, I wasn't clear.  What I meant is that our current speculators thought it was a success (they thought it would bring in more people).  This caused them to be bullish with the money they already have in the system.

Without new money coming into the system (which won't happen for a few days), the price is unlikely to rise.

[phelix]

I wonder when the manipulator with his ~$250000 AND ~BTC50000 will start playing bitcoinica...  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59847.0)

he could directly hammer the price down to $5.85, would this not liquidate a lot of people on bitcoinica? He could then catch all these coins raining down.

I've actually thought about doing just this. Then I thought about the numerous failed attempts at driving the price down by some large holder in previous weeks.

Then again, 50k leveraged at 10:1 would certainly take us to the $4 range, liquidating anyone who went long >$5...

Also, he would be stupid putting $250,000 in bitcoinica. It would clear, everyone else would see the opportunity to cash out, and he would be stuck with the dreaded *BEOD (Bulls-eye of death).

why put it into bitcoinica? I meant that he could dump it right on the gox market.

[SkRRJyTC]

I wonder when the manipulator with his ~$250000 AND ~BTC50000 will start playing bitcoinica...  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59847.0)

he could directly hammer the price down to $5.85, would this not liquidate a lot of people on bitcoinica? He could then catch all these coins raining down.

I've actually thought about doing just this. Then I thought about the numerous failed attempts at driving the price down by some large holder in previous weeks.

Then again, 50k leveraged at 10:1 would certainly take us to the $4 range, liquidating anyone who went long >$5...

Also, he would be stupid putting $250,000 in bitcoinica. It would clear, everyone else would see the opportunity to cash out, and he would be stuck with the dreaded *BEOD (Bulls-eye of death).

why put it into bitcoinica? I meant that he could dump it right on the gox market.

leverage

[Cluster2k]

The bulls aren't putting on a great show recently.  Sure, anyone can leverage on bitcoinica, but now it's time to add extra money to make this rally fly.  The only way is up, right?  Seems like a no brainer to add extra cash to the rocket for the true believers.

[arepo]

As you probably know, the "Bitcoin for Dummies" episode was a huge success.  Many people are searching for bitcoin and many people are buying bitcoin.   Because of this, many people are trying to buy on Bitcoinica.  Too many people are trying to buy, so Bitcoinica ran out of reserve.

 I find this quote suspect and self-serving.. or very naive. what evidence are they presenting that people saw this tv episode and somehow discovered bitcoinia?   For one thing, the best known exchange is mtgox.. and there was not even a volume spike on mtgox, much less a price rise.   Also, it will take noobs about a week just to fund their mtgox accounts with dollars via dwolla.  

The benefit of the episode "Bitcoin for Dummies" was not instant gratification, nor a significant motivator to bring in any substantial influx of new adopters.  Instead it was something much more substantial, an aggressive reminder that persistently reiterated the word "Bitcoin" (some 40 times?) into the ears of the viewers, and even included a full-on tutorial video and positive framing.

The TV episode's exposure was to a high quality, prime time, main stream viewership (think, "other media types.")  And since it was in the episode's title, it also systemically planted the word "Bitcoin" directly into the headlines of many newspaper and TV review blogs, including the New York Times and Huffington Post.  For a brief period, the word "bitcoin" graced the front page of the NYT and, for many people, may have been the first time that word "Bitcoin" came back again after the last press push pre June 2011.  And as far as the episode goes, that word didn't come passively.  To me, the exposure equated to "It didn't die; it's still here" and for the first time it was acknowledged as "hip" and "cool" by Hollywood.

As I said in another thread, it was a solid advertising 2.0 push.  A company couldn't have bought better product placement.

i noticed this, too. but what motivated such a shameless plug?

someone in tv production bought a holding and are trying to pump the price, perhaps?

[elux]

someone in tv production bought a holding and are trying to pump the price, perhaps?

From a plot/writers perspective:

• Our protagonists are lawyers.
• We identify with our protagonists, therefore they must be the good guys.
• Necessarily our client, Mr. Stack must be a good guy, since he is in league with us.
• Since Mr. Stack is in league with us, and thereby a good guy, he must be innocent.
• Therefore Bitcoin is good and innocent.

The government is going after Mr Stack, an ALLY of ours. (Grrr! They must be... the enemy!)

tl;dr: Lawyers are the good guys, therefore their client is a good guy, therefore he is innocent, therefore Bitcoin is all good and light.

[phatsphere]

Zhou says 'normally 6 figures' for USD holdings, so they are holding between 100k and 999k of bitcoinica USDs.

don't forget benford's [1] law. i.e. this "6 figures" number begins with a 1,2 or 3 with probability >.5 !

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law

[casascius]

Zhou says 'normally 6 figures' for USD holdings, so they are holding between 100k and 999k of bitcoinica USDs.

don't forget benford's [1] law. i.e. this "6 figures" number begins with a 1,2 or 3 with probability >.5 !

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law

And "5 btc figures" constraining BTC to 99,999, or USD maybe 725,000.

[RogerR]

The benefit of the episode "Bitcoin for Dummies" was not instant gratification, nor a significant motivator to bring in any substantial influx of new adopters.  Instead it was something much more substantial, an aggressive reminder that persistently reiterated the word "Bitcoin" (some 40 times?) into the ears of the viewers, and even included a full-on tutorial video and positive framing.

I counted 58, but the total is probably closer to 60 or 70.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I wonder when the manipulator with his ~$250000 AND ~BTC50000 will start playing bitcoinica...  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=59847.0)

he could directly hammer the price down to $5.85, would this not liquidate a lot of people on bitcoinica? He could then catch all these coins raining down.

I've actually thought about doing just this. Then I thought about the numerous failed attempts at driving the price down by some large holder in previous weeks.

Then again, 50k leveraged at 10:1 would certainly take us to the $4 range, liquidating anyone who went long >$5...

Also, he would be stupid putting $250,000 in bitcoinica. It would clear, everyone else would see the opportunity to cash out, and he would be stuck with the dreaded *BEOD (Bulls-eye of death).

why put it into bitcoinica? I meant that he could dump it right on the gox market.

This is why I thought you meant bitcoinica...
 

[sgbett]

Zhou says 'normally 6 figures' for USD holdings, so they are holding between 100k and 999k of bitcoinica USDs.

don't forget benford's [1] law. i.e. this "6 figures" number begins with a 1,2 or 3 with probability >.5 !

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law

And "5 btc figures" constraining BTC to 99,999, or USD maybe 725,000.

Well taking that into consideration maybe we are leaning towards 30k bitcoin bought with 200k USD. (6.66 a bitcoin).

I thought more on the 'zhouting price' effect, based on the effective net leverage. Instead of looking for some singular value, liquidation will happen across the range (maybe a normal distribution around what the zhoutong price would be at 3 or 4 times leverage - off the top of my head probably around 4-4.50). Smaller moves will take in a few zhoutingings, but it will take bigger move to kick off a snowball effect and a true 'long leverage squeeze'.

The model is constantly moving though, as people's positions readjust with smaller moves. I think there is still too much optimism around here for any spike down that is big enough to trigger this. It all depends on whether the buying pressure will continue to wane. I still think we are headed down (I reconsidered my FOMO and got out of my gox long position for net break even). Will have to rely on the coins in my wallet as consolation of if we suddenly take off it looks like a down leg to me and the forums reek of denial...

[arepo]

we still haven't gone under the long-term trend line. this could easily be a major multi-month-scale correction and not a reversal.

[dryden]

I seriously doubt that 95% of The Good Wife's audience is equipped with enough nerditude (or whatever) to even figure out how to delve into Bitcoin at all.  I doubt it will generate any register-able push of any kind.  I agree that it's fantastic marketing, and certainly it solidifies  the brand name and implants it into countless viewers tiny little minds.  However, it took me (I'm a programmer) a week to go from 0 to 100 with Bitcoin, and I read everything I could get my hands on, Satoshi paper, everything.  I have an Engineer buddy who still hasn't figured it out. and he wants to...

[realnowhereman]

I seriously doubt that 95% of The Good Wife's audience is equipped with enough nerditude..

... leaving 5% of 12 million, or 600,000 new users?

No reason to use lack of nerditude for pessimism.

(I'm not necessarily saying they will arrive, I'm merely pointing out that when viewership is in the millions it doesn't take much of a percentage to be significant to a small market)

[notme]

I seriously doubt that 95% of The Good Wife's audience is equipped with enough nerditude..

... leaving 5% of 12 million, or 600,000 new users?

No reason to use lack of nerditude for pessimism.

(I'm not necessarily saying they will arrive, I'm merely pointing out that when viewership is in the millions it doesn't take much of a percentage to be significant to a small market)

+1... we're talking about 5% of a US audience that is 3% of the US population.  There are viewers in other countries as well.