How long will AntMiner S1 machines be profitable?

[w00tcoin]

I hear SO many different theories from so many different people.

Curious what you think on this forum.

How long with AntMiner S1 ASIC machines be profitable?

Is ANY Asic profitable for the long (ish) term??

[iglasses]

This question is posed and discussed all the time but the bottom line is that it is different for everyone so there really is no fixed date/difficulty/price where they are guaranteed losers.  I think the best way to figure it is to take today's price and calculate how much BTC it will generate per month using the NEXT estimated difficulty.  Deduct your hosting/electricity cost and there is your answer.

So an S1 today from bitmain is .55 (no coupon).  That S1 at difficulty 8.8g should generate .01 BTC per day so it would take 55 days to break even if your electric was free.

The thing is no one really knows how much new hashing power will be thrown into the network going forward so all you can do is guess based on what has been happening as of late.  I am not doing this for very long (started late last year) but today is the first time since I got into BTC that on the first day after an increase the average block generation is actually over the ten minute mark (10.1 AORN).  It's way too soon into this run to say the network growth is slowing but if that trend were to continue hardware that is unprofitable today could actually become profitable tomorrow.  Also, the coin could always go up dramatically as well, which would have the same effect.  This is the reason that so many people on the forum suggest avoiding mining altogether and just buy the coin outright.

Of course everything above is JMO and there are people on here to understand this stuff way better than I do.

Happy BTCing!

[w00tcoin]

^^^ Thanks for the great feedback there!!!  I really appreciate it!!!

[Meman]

Mining profitability depends on 3 factors

#1 Bitcoin Price (down is bad)
#2 Difficulty (up is bad)
#3 Your electricity costs (up is bad)

You only can speculate about #1 and #2, while #3 is relative stable and predictable

[w00tcoin]

Mining profitability depends on 3 factors

#1 Bitcoin Price (down is bad)
#2 Difficulty (up is bad)
#3 Your electricity costs (up is bad)

You only can speculate about #1 and #2, while #3 is relative stable and predictable

Well I have super cheap electricity   That is good.