IMF on Russia - it's in recession. Reality or wishful thinking?

[Nemo1024]

IMF stated that Russian economy has entered a recession. They reduced GNP growth prognosis for Russia from 1.3% to 0.3%, and they expect inflation of around 6% for 2014.

http://www.interfax.ru/business/374434

In my opinion it is just another poke after a flurry of wannabe sanctions designed to scare some of the more faint-hearted investors. I've actually been buying some of the Russian stocks now that they had a sharp drop in price. In my opinion, it's not much different from buying Bitcoin post-bubble

On the other hand the Russian minister of Finance also warned that Russian economy can be in as difficult position as during the crisis of 2008-2009 and that growth can be approx 0 (I call it a steady state )

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[bryant.coleman]

I don't want to call it as a recession. It is more like a temporary dip, and might last less than 12 months time. After that time period, the Russian economy will perform much better than that of the US and the EU.

[niothor]

Well , it seems that the economy had already dipped -0.5% durinq the last Q of 2013 but I have no info for q1 2014. It was supposed to be also negative but...

[Balthazar]

Hm... So they mean that debt isn't growing according to their wishes?

They still trying to push a bullshit like "if you won't take our loans then you're in recession... If you wish to have a stable economy then you have to create debt which will be at least 5-10x times larger than yoor GDP"

[niothor]

Hm... So they mean that debt isn't growing according to their wishes?

They still trying to push a bullshit like "if you won't take our loans then you're in recession"

Do you have some info on the economic growth of Russia for the last two years? Trimester by trimester if not monthly?
Would be interesting to compare the numbers

[Balthazar]

Actually there are many problems, like in the rest of the world... World economy is too dependent on USD, so all USD problems are the world problems. That's why some subjects are trying to drop of USD dependency.

Do you have some info on the economic growth of Russia for the last two years? Trimester by trimester if not monthly?
Would be interesting to compare the numbers

Some data for the last few quarters could be found here:

http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/publications/catalog/doc_1246601078438

There are a lot of numbers, so analysis could take a lot of time. Data is in XLS format.

[niothor]

Actually there are many problems, like in the rest of the world... World economy is too dependent on USD, so all USD problems are the world problems. That's why some subjects are trying to drop of USD dependency.

Do you have some info on the economic growth of Russia for the last two years? Trimester by trimester if not monthly?
Would be interesting to compare the numbers

Some data for the last few quarters could be found here:

http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/publications/catalog/doc_1246601078438

There are a lot of numbers, so analysis could take a lot of time.

Thanks for that. I'll have a look when I'm back home.

[Jcw188]

I know this is OT a little but all these stats are hard to take seriously.  Really the US just entered recession I bet but the gov. won't admit it. 

[u9y42]

I don't want to call it as a recession. It is more like a temporary dip, and might last less than 12 months time. After that time period, the Russian economy will perform much better than that of the US and the EU.

Could you go into further detail as to why you believe the Russian economy will outperform the US and EU?

[jinjuro]

Most western media is controlled by the west or nato and allies. IMF is also controlled by the west. Even if this is true Russia will still survived. Russia doesn't rely to much on western imports. In world war 2 they even survive when more than 25 million Russians died.

[Balthazar]

IMF is also controlled by the west.

West is controlled by IMF, but not vice versa. All western leaders are IMF puppets, Charles de Gaulle was the last true leader.

[bryant.coleman]

Most western media is controlled by the west or nato and allies. IMF is also controlled by the west. Even if this is true Russia will still survived. Russia doesn't rely to much on western imports. In world war 2 they even survive when more than 25 million Russians died.

That is correct. Russia doesn't rely on Western imports too much. And regarding the exports, they can divert the petroleum and natural gas to Asian countries such as China and Japan. In the end, this will not affect either the US or Russia. But this is going to be definitely bad for the EU, who will lose the energy security.

[practicaldreamer]

I've actually been buying some of the Russian stocks now that they had a sharp drop in price.

Yes, so have I - the price/earnings ratio is just below five for Russian companies on average, compared to the current p/e of 14-15 on companies listed on the FTSE - they represent good value if you can hold for a few years.

[bryant.coleman]

I've actually been buying some of the Russian stocks now that they had a sharp drop in price. In my opinion, it's not much different from buying Bitcoin post-bubble

Can non-citizens purchase and trade Russian stocks? I mean those stocks which are not listed in foreign exchanges. Russian equities such as Gazprom are very attractive right now.  

[practicaldreamer]

I've actually been buying some of the Russian stocks now that they had a sharp drop in price. In my opinion, it's not much different from buying Bitcoin post-bubble

Can non-citizens purchase and trade Russian stocks? I mean those stocks which are not listed in foreign exchanges. Russian equities such as Gazprom are very attractive right now.  

Sorry - I should have said, I only purchased the stocks indirectly via an investment trust - specifically JPM Russian Securities - they do indeed invest in Gazprom.

    Ironic really that JP Morgan are both investing in and sanctioning Russia both at the same time 

[Nemo1024]

Same here. I use equity funds. JP Morgan Russia, but also Swedish-registered Carnegie Ryssland and Alfred Berg Ryssland, which have better returns (investment strategy), than JPM.

[bryant.coleman]

Ironic really that JP Morgan are both investing in and sanctioning Russia both at the same time 

Hmm... that is very interesting. So the JPM is not required to withdraw from the Russian stock market, as per the newly announced sanctions? Checking the performance of the ETF (JPM Russian Securities), I can see that the value is down by almost 24% in one year.

[Nemo1024]

Ironic really that JP Morgan are both investing in and sanctioning Russia both at the same time 

Hmm... that is very interesting. So the JPM is not required to withdraw from the Russian stock market, as per the newly announced sanctions? Checking the performance of the ETF (JPM Russian Securities), I can see that the value is down by almost 24% in one year.

There was quite a strong drop over the past month.
BUY! BUY! BUY! 
Though, I think a further drop might follow, so I stagger my buys, just like I currently do with bitcoins.