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Author Topic: This time last year.  (Read 1920 times)
pinksheep
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May 01, 2014, 11:02:36 PM
 #1

I was not involved in BTC at this time last year (unfortunately Smiley). But I was wondering if anyone back then was speculating that the price would reach $1200 by the end of the year? Would they have been laughed at if they had made such a claim?

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May 01, 2014, 11:20:08 PM
 #2

There were people saying that, the same as there are people saying it will be $20k or $30K at the end of this year now. They weren't laughed at as much as ignored.

For reference, when the run-up to the November bubble started (price was around $160-180), everyone had pretty much acknowledged that we were entering into a bull market again, and there were a lot of polls and topics about how high it would go this time. I made a post about how I thought $650 was a reasonable top in one of these threads, and that was a pretty unanimously unpopular opinion, meaning nobody thought it would get anywhere near that high. (I'm sure some did, it was just a minority)

I don't trade, so it's no skin off my back. I was just throwing my 2 satoshis into the thread. I didn't do any research or analysis to come to that conclusion.
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May 01, 2014, 11:22:49 PM
 #3

This time last year the price was around $130 and later fell to $66 so it would have been wise to enter into a short term short trade.
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May 01, 2014, 11:25:27 PM
 #4

Can't remember any serious talks about 1k before SR crash and that would be / was much more crazy than 10k talks are now. IMO.

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May 01, 2014, 11:28:02 PM
 #5

Can't remember any serious talks about 1k and that would be / was much more crazy than 10k talks are now. IMO.

This might be a more insightful description. There were no serious talks. This is the same as saying that nobody was taking these posters seriously. I'm sure some of the posters themselves were serious in their belief that $1000 was coming, but there wasn't anyone else willing to enter a discussion with those types.
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May 01, 2014, 11:37:47 PM
 #6

Can't remember any serious talks about 1k and that would be / was much more crazy than 10k talks are now. IMO.

This might be a more insightful description. There were no serious talks. This is the same as saying that nobody was taking these posters seriously. I'm sure some of the posters themselves were serious in their belief that $1000 was coming, but there wasn't anyone else willing to enter a discussion with those types.

Could be true, yes. This kind of discoussion would be wishful for majority.
There were much more talks about final $50 capitulation somewhere around Jan-Feb 2014 (then rally).

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May 02, 2014, 12:16:33 AM
 #7

I know there was someone saying "Yeah it might crash but it's going to crash from four digits to three digits".
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May 02, 2014, 01:45:42 AM
 #8

I feel like sentiment right now is close to that of July or August of last year. Most of the panic was gone and people were calmly awaiting a new trend. When the panic is over and the calm comes, it's time to buy. I think we're really close to that now.

But I don't think many people were expecting $1,200.

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May 02, 2014, 01:56:30 AM
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This is nothing like July. In July, we had clearly broken out of any identifiable downtrend on the chart. Right now, we are still firmly underneath a downtrend and only speculating that we might break out.  We have had all kinds of positive news, MIT, bloomberg, OKcoin overseas, etc. Only to slowly rise by $35 over the span of an entire week, just to inch our way somewhere near the downtrend line, where we'll probably be clobbered by the next piece of news about China or what the government or hackers are doing with hundreds of thousands of coins. Then we'll violently surge back down, erase all of this progress, and go even lower.

In your analysis of sentiment, that is the way you feel, but how do you know that is the way that everybody feels? It's certainly not the way I feel. Does everyone reveal how they feel openly? What about the people who don't even use the forums? Also, can you analyze and predict a market entirely based on sentiment levels? And can you say that because something was a certain way last year and it is that way this year that the same thing from last year should happen this year? I think things are a lot more complicated than this, and that there are a lot of large forces involved.
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May 02, 2014, 03:10:54 AM
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I feel like sentiment right now is close to that of July or August of last year. Most of the panic was gone and people were calmly awaiting a new trend. When the panic is over and the calm comes, it's time to buy. I think we're really close to that now.

But I don't think many people were expecting $1,200.
This is nothing like July. In July, we had clearly broken out of any identifiable downtrend on the chart. Right now, we are still firmly underneath a downtrend and only speculating that we might break out.  We have had all kinds of positive news, MIT, bloomberg, OKcoin overseas, etc. Only to slowly rise by $35 over the span of an entire week, just to inch our way somewhere near the downtrend line, where we'll probably be clobbered by the next piece of news about China or what the government or hackers are doing with hundreds of thousands of coins. Then we'll violently surge back down, erase all of this progress, and go even lower.

In your analysis of sentiment, that is the way you feel, but how do you know that is the way that everybody feels? It's certainly not the way I feel. Does everyone reveal how they feel openly? What about the people who don't even use the forums? Also, can you analyze and predict a market entirely based on sentiment levels? And can you say that because something was a certain way last year and it is that way this year that the same thing from last year should happen this year? I think things are a lot more complicated than this, and that there are a lot of large forces involved.

Notice the use of the words I feel and I think. There was nothing definitive in my post, and it certainly was not intended to be any formal analysis, nor did it come off that way.

Relax. These are just my thoughts. It's going to be ok.

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May 02, 2014, 03:50:07 AM
 #11

I was not involved in BTC at this time last year (unfortunately Smiley). But I was wondering if anyone back then was speculating that the price would reach $1200 by the end of the year? Would they have been laughed at if they had made such a claim?

Based on the trend I said that we would probably be at $2,400 by now.

That was before China was a factor at all.

I think we will touch that number by the end of summer.

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May 02, 2014, 06:07:09 AM
 #12

Meh.



Cheers.

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May 02, 2014, 06:11:21 AM
 #13

Can't remember any serious talks about 1k before SR crash and that would be / was much more crazy than 10k talks are now. IMO.

I pulled a bold prediction from the crates; a year old this week!

$2500 by May 1st, 2014

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May 02, 2014, 06:13:51 AM
 #14

Can't remember any serious talks about 1k before SR crash and that would be / was much more crazy than 10k talks are now. IMO.

I pulled a bold prediction from the crates; a year old this week!

$2500 by May 1st, 2014


If it was not for Silkroad, Mt Gox and China, that sounds like a good estimate


 
 
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May 02, 2014, 06:17:19 AM
 #15

This time last year.
One year ago today:

1. THREE FRIENDS OF BOSTON BOMBING SUSPECT ARRESTED
Police arrested three college friends of Boston Marathon bombing suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev on Wednesday, and accused them of throwing away evidence and making false statements to investigators. Azamat Tazhayakov, Dias Kadyrbayev, and Robel Phillipos — all 19 years old — allegedly went to Tsarnaev's dorm room after FBI photos of the suspects were released, removed a backpack with fireworks, and emptied it of its explosives powder. Investigators say the three men knew nothing about the bombing beforehand. [NBC News]
………………………………………………………………………………

2. NORTH KOREA SENTENCES U.S. CITIZEN TO 15 YEARS' HARD LABOR
North Korea said Thursday it had sentenced Kenneth Bae, a tour operator from Washington state, to 15 years of "compulsory labor" on charges that he plotted against the communist regime's government. Bae was arrested while traveling in November. South Korean activists speculate that he might have been found with pictures of hungry children. The case could complicate U.S. efforts to get Pyongyang to stop threatening war and open talks about its nuclear and missile programs. [Washington Post]
………………………………………………………………………………

3. BANGLADESHI MAYOR SUSPENDED OVER BUILDING COLLAPSE
Bangladeshi authorities on Thursday suspended the mayor of a municipality for approving construction of a factory complex that collapsed on April 24. The move came as shock over the rising death toll — which reached 430 people as several bodies were pulled from the rubble on Thursday — has prompted global calls for safer working conditions and better pay in factories making clothing to export to the West. Pope Francis likened the conditions the victims worked in to "slave labor." [Reuters]
………………………………………………………………………………

4. PETRAEUS LANDS USC TEACHING POSITION
Former CIA chief David Petraeus, who resigned last year after admitting to an extramarital affair, has a new job. The former four-star general is going to teach part-time at the University of Southern California. Petraeus, who once commanded coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, will participate in seminars on foreign relations, leadership, and other topics, university officials say. Petraeus has also accepted a visiting faculty position at the City University of New York. [Los Angeles Times]
………………………………………………………………………………

5. GOVERNMENT APPEALS ORDER TO DROP EMERGENCY CONTRACEPTION AGE LIMITS
The Obama administration on Wednesday appealed an order by a federal judge to drop age limits on over-the-counter sales of morning-after birth control pills. The move came a day after the Food and Drug Administration lowered minimum age for buying one of the contraceptives, Plan B One-Step, without a prescription from 17 to 15. The appeal suggests the government is determined to expand access to emergency contraception, but not as much as doctors and activists want. [CBS News]
………………………………………………………………………………

6. POLICE CALL 2-YEAR-OLD'S SHOOTING DEATH NIGHTMARE ACCIDENT
Kentucky police on Wednesday called the fatal shooting of a 2-year-old girl by her 5-year-old brother a tragic accident that happened when the children's mom stepped outside for just a few minutes. The boy had received the 22-caliber, one-shot Crickett rifle for his birthday. "It's just one of those nightmares," Kentucky State Police Trooper Billy Gregory said, "a quick thing that happens when you turn your back." [CNN]
………………………………………………………………………………

7. OBAMA SET TO NOMINATE PRITZKER AS COMMERCE SECRETARY
President Obama is expected to continue filling out his second-term cabinet on Thursday by nominating Chicago billionaire Penny Pritzker as his next commerce secretary. Pritzker, heiress to the Hyatt Hotels fortune, is a longtime Obama supporter who led record fundraising for this 2008 campaign. Obama is also expected to announce that he's naming Michael Froman, deputy national security adviser for international economics, as U.S. trade representative. [Bloomberg]
………………………………………………………………………………

8. RECONSTRUCTED SKULL SUPPORTS TALES OF JAMESTOWN CANNIBALISM
Archaeologists say they have found concrete evidence to confirm stories that Jamestown colonists resorted to cannibalism to survive the "starving time" winter of 1609-10, when 60 of the 300 people hunkered down in a fort besieged by Powhatan Indians died. The researchers presented the reconstructed skull of a 14-year-old English girl found at the site of the fort that had crisscrossing cuts, typical of animal butchery at the time, suggesting her tongue and brains had been removed to be eaten. [USA Today]
………………………………………………………………………………

9. WOMAN, THOUGHT DEAD, REAPPEARS 11 YEARS AFTER LEAVING FAMILY
A Pennsylvania woman has resurfaced in Florida 11 years after she mysteriously disappeared — leaving behind a job and two children, then 8 and 12. Police say Brenda Heist, 54, was considered "missing and possibly deceased" after police failed to turn up clues about what happened to her. She was last seen after dropping off her children at school. She told authorities she was going through a divorce, and joined hitchhikers headed to Florida on a whim, then lived for years on the streets. [CNN]
………………………………………………………………………………

10. KRIS KROSS RAPPER FOUND DEAD
Rapper Chris "Mac Daddy" Kelly — part of the 1990s duo Kris Kross known for the hit song "Jump" — died Wednesday afternoon at age 34. Kelly was found unresponsive in his home and taken to Atlanta Medical Center, where he was pronounced dead. Police are investigating the death as a drug overdose. The official cause of death is expected to come from an autopsy scheduled for Thursday morning. [Atlanta Journal-Constitution]

http://theweek.com/article/index/243607/10-things-you-need-to-know-today-may-2-2013

#8 Is an interesting surprise, which is news to me.   

pinksheep
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May 02, 2014, 10:01:42 AM
 #16


I pulled a bold prediction from the crates; a year old this week!

$2500 by May 1st, 2014


Let's hope that prediction wasn't far off & that the $2500 is only a few weeks away  Wink

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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL


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May 02, 2014, 10:16:03 AM
 #17

I was not involved in BTC at this time last year (unfortunately Smiley). But I was wondering if anyone back then was speculating that the price would reach $1200 by the end of the year? Would they have been laughed at if they had made such a claim?

In December 2012, I was expecting $1000 in 2016. Adam in 2020  Cheesy

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687.msg1412469#msg1412469
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May 02, 2014, 05:58:24 PM
 #18

I was not involved in BTC at this time last year (unfortunately Smiley). But I was wondering if anyone back then was speculating that the price would reach $1200 by the end of the year? Would they have been laughed at if they had made such a claim?

In December 2012, I was expecting $1000 in 2016. Adam in 2020  Cheesy

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687.msg1412469#msg1412469

yep funny how nobody did expect even $100 in 2013 back then Smiley $30 was all the rage...

i am satoshi
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May 02, 2014, 06:25:45 PM
 #19

I was not involved in BTC at this time last year (unfortunately Smiley). But I was wondering if anyone back then was speculating that the price would reach $1200 by the end of the year? Would they have been laughed at if they had made such a claim?

In December 2012, I was expecting $1000 in 2016. Adam in 2020  Cheesy

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687.msg1412469#msg1412469


The 2013 bull caught a lot of us by surprise. I thought it was going to take several more years to crack triple digits.

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May 02, 2014, 06:33:54 PM
 #20

I was not involved in BTC at this time last year (unfortunately Smiley). But I was wondering if anyone back then was speculating that the price would reach $1200 by the end of the year? Would they have been laughed at if they had made such a claim?

In December 2012, I was expecting $1000 in 2016. Adam in 2020  Cheesy

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687.msg1412469#msg1412469


The 2013 bull caught a lot of us by surprise. I thought it was going to take several more years to crack triple digits.

Now I'm looking for at least $3,500 by next year.
Maybe even $5,000  Smiley
At least the BTC economy is healthy and growing fast.

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